Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-13
All Games Summary
Total Picks
35
Final results
35
Correct picks
25
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
71.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (35)
Ball State (7-15) 77, Akron (19-4) 87 [10] 65-89 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 153.8		 Akron (95.3%)
Boston College (9-13) 50, Clemson #20 (19-4) 74 [24] 58-71 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 135.2		 Clemson (89.9%)
West Virginia (14-8) 48, Houston #8 (20-2) 77 [29] 51-70 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 127.2		 Houston (87.8%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 61, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 100 [39] 69-86 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 156.8		 Miami (OH) (87.7%)
Marquette (8-15) 68, St. John's #22 (17-5) 92 [24] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 155.5		 St. John's (87.6%)
Oregon (8-14) 55, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 90 [35] 64-70 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET UNDER 146.2		 Nebraska (79.7%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 74, Belmont (21-3) 78 [4] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 147.8		 Belmont (79.6%)
Maryland (8-13) 71, USC (17-6) 88 [17] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 150.0		 USC (77.6%)
Texas A&M (17-5) 82, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 87 [5] 71-82 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 161.5		 Tennessee (77.5%)
Georgetown (13-10) 83, Creighton (12-11) 86 [3] 69-85 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 147.5		 Creighton (75.6%)
Northern Iowa (14-9) 61, UIC (13-11) 69 [8] 53-66 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 128.5		 Northern Iowa (75.4%)
Indiana (15-8) 60, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 81 [21] 64-76 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 145.5		 Michigan State (74.7%)
Grand Canyon (15-7) 64, New Mexico (18-5) 87 [23] 65-71 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 145.8		 New Mexico (74.7%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 59, Eastern Michigan (9-14) 77 [18] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 4.4
O/U: 142.2		 Eastern Michigan (74.6%)
Louisville #24 (16-6) 70, Virginia #18 (19-3) 79 [9] 73-76 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 153.0		 Louisville (73.3%)
Air Force (3-19) 62, San José State (6-16) 70 [8] 62-71 ✓ MAE: 0.5
BET OVER 130.8		 San José State (72.9%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 55, Eastern Illinois (9-14) 57 [2] 58-68 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 130.8		 Eastern Illinois (71.8%)
Florida State (10-12) 86, Syracuse (13-10) 94 [8] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 15.0
BET UNDER 160.2		 Syracuse (71.6%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 74, George Mason (20-3) 82 [8] 71-67 ✗ MAE: 9.1
O/U: 138.5		 George Mason (68.2%)
Evansville (5-18) 90, Bradley (16-8) 94 [4] 76-70 ✗ MAE: 18.9
BET OVER 143.0		 Bradley (61.2%)
Ohio (13-11) 85, Toledo (12-11) 101 [16] 76-81 ✗ MAE: 14.7
BET UNDER 161.8		 Toledo (60.5%)
Mississippi State (11-11) 82, Alabama (15-7) 97 [15] 91-83 ✓ MAE: 3.9
O/U: 172.8		 Alabama (56.1%)
Seton Hall (16-7) 64, UConn #3 (22-1) 69 [5] 64-61 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 133.0		 UConn (54.8%)
Colorado State (12-10) 69, Fresno State (11-11) 79 [10] 71-64 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 139.8		 Colorado State (54.7%)
Oklahoma (11-12) 79, Florida #17 (16-6) 96 [17] 82-79 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 157.0		 Florida (53.3%)
Buffalo (14-9) 81, Kent State (17-6) 87 [6] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 163.5		 Buffalo (53.2%) DOG
San Francisco (14-11) 68, Saint Mary's (20-4) 82 [14] 70-74 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 140.5		 San Francisco (52.7%) DOG
Western Michigan (8-14) 82, Massachusetts (15-9) 85 [3] 82-79 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET OVER 157.8		 Massachusetts (52.3%)
Oklahoma State (16-6) 79, Baylor (13-9) 94 [15] 84-82 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 164.8		 Oklahoma State (52.3%) DOG
Minnesota (11-12) 75, Wisconsin (16-6) 78 [3] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 146.2		 Minnesota (52.0%) DOG
Iowa State #7 (20-2) 63, Kansas #11 (17-5) 84 [21] 74-66 ✗ MAE: 14.7
BET UNDER 151.8		 Iowa State (51.8%)
Boise State (14-9) 85, UNLV (10-12) 89 [4] 77-79 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 149.5		 UNLV (51.4%) DOG
Duquesne (13-10) 65, Dayton (15-8) 71 [6] 73-79 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 152.5		 Duquesne (51.4%) DOG
Providence (10-13) 82, Villanova (17-5) 88 [6] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 157.8		 Providence (50.5%) DOG
Notre Dame (11-12) 69, Miami (17-5) 81 [12] 77-68 ✓ MAE: 2.5
O/U: 143.8		 Miami (50.5%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
35
Final results
35
Correct picks
25
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
71.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
35
Avg Confidence
72.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0949
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
33
ML Win Rate
75.8%
ML Profit
$-73
ML ROI
-2.2%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
1
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
16.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-260
ROI
-43.4%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
1
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
16.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-360
ROI
-60.1%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-60
ROI
-20.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
18
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-82
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
35
Avg Confidence
55.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1794
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
28
O/U Wins
14
O/U Losses
14
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-127
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
0
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Georgetown 83 @ Creighton 86 Creighton (75.6%) Creighton -8.5 +7.2 +15.7 +3.0 FAILED
UIC 69 @ Northern Iowa 61 Northern Iowa (75.4%) Northern Iowa -6.5 +7.2 +13.7 -8.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
1
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
16.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-260
ROI
-43.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Buffalo 81, Kent State 87 [6] Buffalo 53.2% +100 +5.4% LOSS
Oklahoma State 79, Baylor 94 [15] Oklahoma State 52.3% N/A N/A LOSS
Minnesota 75, Wisconsin 78 [3] Minnesota 52.0% +110 +6.3% LOSS
Boise State 85, UNLV 89 [4] UNLV 51.4% +139 +11.2% WIN
Duquesne 65, Dayton 71 [6] Duquesne 51.4% +165 +15.0% LOSS
Providence 82, Villanova 88 [6] Providence 50.5% +117 +6.2% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
1
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
16.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-360
ROI
-60.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Duquesne 65, Dayton 71 [6] Duquesne 51.4% +165 +15.0% LOSS
Louisville 70, Virginia 79 [9] Louisville 73.3% -175 +11.9% LOSS
Boise State 85, UNLV 89 [4] UNLV 51.4% +139 +11.2% WIN
Minnesota 75, Wisconsin 78 [3] Minnesota 52.0% +110 +6.3% LOSS
Providence 82, Villanova 88 [6] Providence 50.5% +117 +6.2% LOSS
Buffalo 81, Kent State 87 [6] Buffalo 53.2% +100 +5.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-60
ROI
-20.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Duquesne 65, Dayton 71 [6] Duquesne 51.4% +165 +15.0% LOSS
Louisville 70, Virginia 79 [9] Louisville 73.3% -175 +11.9% LOSS
Boise State 85, UNLV 89 [4] UNLV 51.4% +139 +11.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago Loyola Chicago 31.8% +350 +10.6% LOSS
Alabama @ Mississippi State Mississippi State 43.9% +220 +14.0% LOSS
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) Central Michigan 12.3% +1037 +3.9% LOSS