Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-14
All Games Summary
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
40
Incorrect picks
21
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (61)
Arizona State (12-11) 82, Arizona #1 (22-0) 89 [7] 71-98 ✗ MAE: 10.2
O/U: 168.0		 Arizona (95.0%)
Fordham (12-11) 56, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 78 [22] 73-91 ✗ MAE: 14.9
BET OVER 150.8		 Saint Louis (93.7%)
East Carolina (7-15) 71, South Florida (15-8) 82 [11] 77-90 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 158.0		 South Florida (93.2%)
Utah (9-13) 74, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 88 [14] 72-94 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 159.0		 Texas Tech (91.8%)
TCU (13-9) 70, BYU #16 (17-5) 76 [6] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 160.2		 BYU (88.0%)
Nevada (16-7) 62, Utah State (19-3) 71 [9] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 147.8		 Utah State (87.4%)
Pacific (15-10) 69, Santa Clara (20-5) 85 [16] 68-85 ✓ MAE: 0.5
O/U: 152.8		 Santa Clara (86.2%)
South Carolina (11-12) 74, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 108 [34] 75-85 ✗ MAE: 12.3
BET OVER 156.0		 Arkansas (83.0%)
Georgia (16-6) 95, Ole Miss (11-11) 97 [2] 71-84 ✗ MAE: 18.2
BET UNDER 158.5		 Georgia (80.9%)
George Washington (13-10) 79, Davidson (13-9) 84 [5] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 150.5		 George Washington (80.1%)
Iowa (17-5) 72, Purdue #12 (18-4) 79 [7] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 145.2		 Purdue (79.4%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 81, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 86 [5] 74-84 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 155.5		 Charleston Southern (77.3%)
Marshall (15-8) 83, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 85 [2] 70-83 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 151.0		 Marshall (75.7%)
La Salle (7-16) 53, Richmond (13-10) 74 [21] 64-80 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 147.0		 Richmond (75.6%)
Southern Miss (12-13) 65, Troy (16-8) 91 [26] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 145.5		 Troy (75.4%)
Quinnipiac (15-9) 70, Saint Peter's (12-8) 74 [4] 65-74 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 141.0		 Quinnipiac (75.1%)
Florida International (11-11) 86, Kennesaw State (14-8) 89 [3] 77-84 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 175.5		 Kennesaw State (74.9%)
Virginia Tech (16-7) 76, SMU (15-7) 77 [1] 78-90 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 154.2		 SMU (74.9%)
Louisiana (8-16) 54, Texas State (14-11) 59 [5] 62-66 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 132.5		 Texas State (74.6%)
Colorado (13-10) 68, Cincinnati (11-11) 77 [9] 66-82 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 146.0		 Cincinnati (73.1%)
Missouri State (13-9) 72, Western Kentucky (12-10) 87 [15] 71-71 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 148.5		 Western Kentucky (72.7%)
Siena (16-7) 80, Sacred Heart (10-14) 86 [6] 62-74 ✗ MAE: 14.8
BET UNDER 139.5		 Siena (72.5%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 87, Denver (9-15) 98 [11] 76-85 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET OVER 156.5		 Denver (71.7%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 65, North Dakota State (19-5) 76 [11] 74-84 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 149.2		 North Dakota State (69.4%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 80, Radford (13-12) 89 [9] 81-75 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 166.2		 Radford (68.6%)
Manhattan (9-15) 62, Fairfield (14-10) 98 [36] 70-80 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 158.2		 Fairfield (68.6%)
Washington (12-11) 72, Michigan #2 (20-1) 82 [10] 81-77 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 165.5		 Michigan (68.0%)
Boston University (9-15) 91, Lehigh (10-14) 93 [2] 62-76 ✗ MAE: 23.4
BET UNDER 144.5		 Boston University (67.2%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 80, Colgate (14-10) 86 [6] 76-71 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 150.5		 Colgate (66.9%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 73, Drake (12-12) 76 [3] 70-75 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 146.0		 Southern Illinois (66.8%)
Temple (14-8) 53, Memphis (10-11) 55 [2] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 15.8
BET UNDER 143.8		 Memphis (66.8%)
California (17-6) 56, Duke #4 (21-1) 71 [15] 80-75 ✗ MAE: 13.7
BET OVER 149.2		 Duke (66.0%)
East Tennessee State (17-7) 68, Western Carolina (8-14) 72 [4] 76-71 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 147.8		 East Tennessee State (66.0%)
Northwestern (10-13) 68, Illinois #5 (20-3) 79 [11] 75-70 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 151.8		 Illinois (65.3%)
Iona (14-9) 68, Rider (3-18) 72 [4] 70-70 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET UNDER 142.5		 Iona (65.0%)
Lafayette (7-17) 69, Bucknell (8-16) 76 [7] 66-75 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 138.0		 Bucknell (62.0%)
Kansas State (10-12) 73, UCF (17-5) 82 [9] 77-84 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 170.5		 Kansas State (61.8%)
Illinois State (15-8) 89, Indiana State (10-14) 94 [5] 74-73 ✗ MAE: 18.0
O/U: 148.0		 Illinois State (61.8%)
Jacksonville State (11-10) 62, Sam Houston (16-7) 77 [15] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 12.9
O/U: 150.8		 Jacksonville State (61.8%)
Wofford (16-8) 67, Chattanooga (9-14) 76 [9] 67-81 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 154.8		 Wofford (61.1%)
Army (10-14) 75, Holy Cross (8-16) 82 [7] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 142.8		 Holy Cross (60.8%)
Georgia Tech (11-12) 66, Pittsburgh (9-14) 89 [23] 73-75 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 145.5		 Georgia Tech (60.2%) DOG
High Point (21-4) 75, Winthrop (17-8) 92 [17] 84-81 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET OVER 162.5		 Winthrop (58.9%) DOG
UTSA (4-18) 73, Rice (10-13) 89 [16] 76-73 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 143.8		 Rice (58.7%)
Auburn (14-8) 74, Missouri (15-7) 84 [10] 80-81 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 153.5		 Missouri (58.6%) DOG
Canisius (8-16) 54, Niagara (6-17) 59 [5] 63-72 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET OVER 127.2		 Canisius (57.8%)
Samford (11-12) 73, Furman (16-8) 77 [4] 78-81 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET OVER 150.5		 Samford (56.9%) DOG
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 70, Oregon State (13-12) 76 [6] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 1.6
O/U: 140.8		 Oregon State (55.0%) DOG
Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 64, Texas (14-9) 80 [16] 86-77 ✗ MAE: 12.4
O/U: 165.2		 Vanderbilt (54.7%)
Wyoming (13-10) 57, San Diego State (16-6) 74 [17] 76-77 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET OVER 148.0		 Wyoming (54.0%) DOG
Charlotte (13-10) 74, Tulsa (20-3) 86 [12] 82-77 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 147.8		 Tulsa (54.0%)
UNC Asheville (11-13) 70, Presbyterian (11-13) 71 [1] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 137.5		 Presbyterian (53.7%) DOG
Butler (13-10) 75, Xavier (12-11) 89 [14] 76-82 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 161.8		 Xavier (52.7%) DOG
Penn State (10-12) 60, UCLA (16-7) 71 [11] 75-72 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 148.5		 UCLA (52.3%)
St. Bonaventure (13-10) 64, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 68 [4] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 147.8		 Saint Joseph's (52.2%) DOG
Portland (11-14) 63, Pepperdine (6-18) 67 [4] 69-75 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 147.2		 Pepperdine (51.5%) DOG
Tulane (13-9) 69, UAB (14-8) 82 [13] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 153.5		 Tulane (51.3%) DOG
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 58, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 59 [1] 61-65 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 131.8		 Louisiana Tech (51.2%) DOG
LSU (14-8) 74, Kentucky (16-7) 75 [1] 74-80 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 151.5		 LSU (51.0%) DOG
North Carolina #14 (18-4) 90, Stanford (14-9) 95 [5] 72-77 ✗ MAE: 18.2
O/U: 146.8		 Stanford (50.7%) DOG
Rhode Island (13-9) 75, VCU (17-6) 84 [9] 73-68 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 148.0		 VCU (50.3%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
40
Incorrect picks
21
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
61
Avg Confidence
68.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0718
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
59
ML Win Rate
62.7%
ML Profit
$-690
ML ROI
-11.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
9
Wins
6
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$344
ROI
38.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
7
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
46.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-14
ROI
-0.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$68
ROI
11.3%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
30
ATS Wins
13
ATS Losses
17
ATS Win Rate
43.3%
Spread Profit
$-518
Spread ROI
-17.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
61
Avg Confidence
59.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2633
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
49
O/U Wins
28
O/U Losses
21
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$445
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
2
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$182
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
La Salle 53 @ Richmond 74 Richmond (75.6%) Richmond -7.8 +8.6 +16.4 +21.0 COVERED
Colorado 68 @ Cincinnati 77 Cincinnati (73.1%) Cincinnati -8.2 +7.8 +16.0 +9.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
9
Wins
6
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$344
ROI
38.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Wyoming 57, San Diego State 74 [17] Wyoming 54.0% +110 +8.3% LOSS
UNC Asheville 70, Presbyterian 71 [1] Presbyterian 53.7% +154 +15.9% WIN
Butler 75, Xavier 89 [14] Xavier 52.7% N/A N/A WIN
St. Bonaventure 64, Saint Joseph's 68 [4] Saint Joseph's 52.2% +110 +6.5% WIN
Portland 63, Pepperdine 67 [4] Pepperdine 51.5% +105 +4.7% WIN
Tulane 69, UAB 82 [13] Tulane 51.3% +115 +6.5% LOSS
Middle Tennessee 58, Louisiana Tech 59 [1] Louisiana Tech 51.2% +155 +13.3% WIN
LSU 74, Kentucky 75 [1] LSU 51.0% +150 +12.7% LOSS
North Carolina 90, Stanford 95 [5] Stanford 50.7% +120 +6.9% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
7
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
46.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-14
ROI
-0.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UNC Asheville 70, Presbyterian 71 [1] Presbyterian 53.7% +154 +15.9% WIN
Boston University 91, Lehigh 93 [2] Boston University 67.2% -120 +15.1% LOSS
Florida International 86, Kennesaw State 89 [3] Kennesaw State 74.9% -170 +14.3% WIN
Middle Tennessee 58, Louisiana Tech 59 [1] Louisiana Tech 51.2% +155 +13.3% WIN
LSU 74, Kentucky 75 [1] LSU 51.0% +150 +12.7% LOSS
Jacksonville State 62, Sam Houston 77 [15] Jacksonville State 61.8% -110 +11.8% LOSS
Georgia Tech 66, Pittsburgh 89 [23] Georgia Tech 60.2% -112 +9.7% LOSS
Auburn 74, Missouri 84 [10] Missouri 58.6% -105 +9.7% WIN
Charleston Southern 81, South Carolina Upstate 86 [5] Charleston Southern 77.3% -245 +9.2% LOSS
Wyoming 57, San Diego State 74 [17] Wyoming 54.0% +110 +8.3% LOSS
North Carolina 90, Stanford 95 [5] Stanford 50.7% +120 +6.9% WIN
Tulane 69, UAB 82 [13] Tulane 51.3% +115 +6.5% LOSS
St. Bonaventure 64, Saint Joseph's 68 [4] Saint Joseph's 52.2% +110 +6.5% WIN
Samford 73, Furman 77 [4] Samford 56.9% -113 +6.2% LOSS
Loyola Marymount 70, Oregon State 76 [6] Oregon State 55.0% -107 +5.6% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$68
ROI
11.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UNC Asheville 70, Presbyterian 71 [1] Presbyterian 53.7% +154 +15.9% WIN
Boston University 91, Lehigh 93 [2] Boston University 67.2% -120 +15.1% LOSS
Florida International 86, Kennesaw State 89 [3] Kennesaw State 74.9% -170 +14.3% WIN
Middle Tennessee 58, Louisiana Tech 59 [1] Louisiana Tech 51.2% +155 +13.3% WIN
LSU 74, Kentucky 75 [1] LSU 51.0% +150 +12.7% LOSS
Jacksonville State 62, Sam Houston 77 [15] Jacksonville State 61.8% -110 +11.8% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan @ Washington Washington 32.0% +700 +20.0% LOSS
Duke @ California California 34.0% +650 +21.3% LOSS
Radford @ Gardner-Webb Gardner-Webb 31.4% +587 +17.5% LOSS