Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-15
All Games Summary
Total Picks
49
Final results
49
Correct picks
31
Incorrect picks
18
Pending
0
Accuracy
63.3%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (49)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 89, William & Mary (14-8) 97 [8] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 14.7
BET UNDER 162.2		 William & Mary (86.7%)
Maine (5-18) 62, Vermont (14-9) 67 [5] 53-72 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 130.0		 Vermont (86.0%)
The Citadel (8-15) 66, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 69 [3] 66-83 ✓ MAE: 7.3
O/U: 148.5		 UNC Greensboro (80.7%)
Bellarmine (9-13) 71, Lipscomb (15-9) 81 [10] 73-81 ✓ MAE: 1.4
O/U: 154.5		 Lipscomb (80.7%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 71, Northern Kentucky (14-11) 96 [25] 74-86 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 160.5		 Northern Kentucky (78.4%)
San Diego (10-15) 64, Seattle U (15-9) 75 [11] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 147.2		 Seattle U (77.9%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 84, Georgia Southern (14-11) 87 [3] 76-87 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 162.2		 Georgia Southern (77.1%)
New Mexico State (11-11) 71, Liberty (19-3) 73 [2] 66-79 ✓ MAE: 5.3
O/U: 144.8		 Liberty (76.4%)
UC San Diego (15-8) 79, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 84 [5] 72-82 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 160.0		 UC San Diego (75.7%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 73, Long Beach State (8-15) 88 [15] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 141.5		 Long Beach State (74.8%)
North Alabama (7-14) 91, North Florida (5-18) 105 [14] 71-81 ✗ MAE: 21.8
BET UNDER 157.5		 North Alabama (74.5%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 80, Weber State (11-12) 91 [11] 80-86 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 159.5		 Weber State (73.4%)
SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 59, UT Martin (18-5) 65 [6] 62-63 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 132.8		 UT Martin (72.6%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 74, Queens University (12-11) 85 [11] 77-83 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 166.5		 Florida Gulf Coast (72.2%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 60, Central Arkansas (13-10) 62 [2] 71-82 ✗ MAE: 15.5
BET OVER 136.8		 Central Arkansas (72.1%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 72, Austin Peay (16-6) 74 [2] 72-80 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 154.0		 Austin Peay (71.9%)
Morehead State (12-11) 100, Tennessee State (14-8) 105 [5] 68-75 ✗ MAE: 31.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 Tennessee State (71.6%)
Binghamton (5-18) 53, UAlbany (7-16) 69 [16] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET OVER 138.5		 UAlbany (70.4%)
Kansas City (4-20) 83, South Dakota (13-12) 99 [16] 74-77 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET UNDER 156.5		 South Dakota (70.0%)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 63, Little Rock (9-14) 74 [11] 61-72 ✓ MAE: 2.2
O/U: 133.2		 Little Rock (70.0%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 64, NJIT (11-12) 73 [9] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 146.0		 UMass Lowell (69.5%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 54, Southern Indiana (5-17) 71 [17] 72-77 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET OVER 143.0		 Tennessee Tech (69.3%)
Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 69, UC Davis (13-9) 74 [5] 75-82 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 167.5		 UC Davis (68.5%)
Monmouth (11-12) 51, Drexel (12-11) 73 [22] 60-66 ✗ MAE: 13.6
O/U: 127.5		 Monmouth (68.1%)
Washington State (11-14) 65, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 86 [21] 83-75 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 156.5		 Gonzaga (68.1%)
Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 76, Lindenwood (14-10) 88 [12] 73-80 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 155.5		 Southeast Missouri State (67.9%)
James Madison (11-13) 65, App State (16-9) 80 [15] 69-78 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET OVER 133.5		 App State (65.3%)
Youngstown State (12-12) 83, Wright State (15-9) 93 [10] 71-80 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 142.0		 Wright State (65.0%)
Northern Colorado (13-10) 73, Portland State (15-6) 76 [3] 78-84 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 155.5		 Portland State (64.5%)
Hofstra (14-9) 71, Stony Brook (14-9) 76 [5] 72-66 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 136.2		 Hofstra (63.8%)
Wichita State (14-9) 67, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 85 [18] 79-80 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET OVER 156.0		 Florida Atlantic (63.7%)
VMI (6-18) 67, Mercer (15-8) 77 [10] 80-72 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 153.5		 Mercer (63.6%)
Idaho (13-9) 68, Idaho State (10-13) 76 [8] 73-83 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET OVER 149.2		 Idaho State (63.3%)
UMBC (13-8) 74, Bryant (7-15) 79 [5] 66-71 ✗ MAE: 8.1
O/U: 135.5		 Bryant (62.8%) DOG
Northern Arizona (8-15) 69, Sacramento State (9-13) 83 [14] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 156.0		 Sacramento State (62.1%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 66, Hawai'i (16-5) 86 [20] 78-77 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 158.2		 Hawai'i (61.9%)
Charleston (15-8) 52, Towson (13-11) 61 [9] 65-72 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 144.5		 Towson (60.1%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 58, California Baptist (16-6) 74 [16] 64-70 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 140.0		 Abilene Christian (60.1%) DOG
Utah Tech (13-11) 52, UT Arlington (14-7) 56 [4] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 16.6
O/U: 141.2		 Utah Tech (58.7%)
Tarleton State (11-11) 105, Southern Utah (8-15) 106 [1] 80-75 ✗ MAE: 27.8
BET OVER 150.5		 Tarleton State (57.8%)
Delaware (6-16) 69, UTEP (8-15) 70 [1] 56-66 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 125.5		 Delaware (56.0%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 60, Oakland (14-11) 73 [13] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 167.5		 Milwaukee (54.1%) DOG
Robert Morris (15-10) 93, IU Indianapolis (6-18) 96 [3] 84-79 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET OVER 160.2		 Robert Morris (51.7%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 69, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 75 [6] 70-71 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 145.5		 Cal State Bakersfield (51.5%) DOG
North Dakota (13-12) 80, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 91 [11] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 10.4
O/U: 151.5		 North Dakota (51.3%) DOG
Arkansas State (14-10) 87, South Alabama (16-7) 91 [4] 69-73 ✗ MAE: 18.1
BET UNDER 154.0		 South Alabama (51.3%) DOG
Cleveland State (10-14) 73, Green Bay (13-12) 88 [15] 74-80 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET OVER 150.8		 Cleveland State (51.0%) DOG
West Georgia (10-12) 86, Stetson (8-15) 95 [9] 76-82 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET OVER 152.5		 Stetson (50.6%) DOG
Elon (13-10) 78, Northeastern (6-15) 85 [7] 84-80 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET OVER 158.5		 Elon (50.0%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
49
Final results
49
Correct picks
31
Incorrect picks
18
Pending
0
Accuracy
63.3%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
49
Avg Confidence
68.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0644
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
42
ML Win Rate
64.3%
ML Profit
$-189
ML ROI
-4.5%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$95
ROI
23.8%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
7
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
58.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$56
ROI
4.7%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$170
ROI
34.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
25
ATS Wins
10
ATS Losses
15
ATS Win Rate
40.0%
Spread Profit
$-591
Spread ROI
-23.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-12.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
49
Avg Confidence
58.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2754
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
45
O/U Wins
24
O/U Losses
21
O/U Win Rate
53.3%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
1.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+0.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
The Citadel 66 @ UNC Greensboro 69 UNC Greensboro (80.7%) UNC Greensboro -9.5 +7.5 +17.0 +3.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$95
ROI
23.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Milwaukee 60, Oakland 73 [13] Milwaukee 54.1% +130 +12.0% LOSS
Arkansas State 87, South Alabama 91 [4] South Alabama 51.3% +140 +11.2% WIN
Cleveland State 73, Green Bay 88 [15] Cleveland State 51.0% +132 +9.7% LOSS
West Georgia 86, Stetson 95 [9] Stetson 50.6% +155 +12.7% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
7
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
58.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$56
ROI
4.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida Gulf Coast 74, Queens University 85 [11] Florida Gulf Coast 72.2% -162 +12.8% LOSS
West Georgia 86, Stetson 95 [9] Stetson 50.6% +155 +12.7% WIN
Milwaukee 60, Oakland 73 [13] Milwaukee 54.1% +130 +12.0% LOSS
Arkansas State 87, South Alabama 91 [4] South Alabama 51.3% +140 +11.2% WIN
James Madison 65, App State 80 [15] App State 65.3% -132 +10.6% WIN
Cleveland State 73, Green Bay 88 [15] Cleveland State 51.0% +132 +9.7% LOSS
Old Dominion 84, Georgia Southern 87 [3] Georgia Southern 77.1% -245 +8.7% WIN
UC Riverside 73, Long Beach State 88 [15] Long Beach State 74.8% -230 +7.9% WIN
Cal State Fullerton 69, UC Davis 74 [5] UC Davis 68.5% -175 +7.6% WIN
Eastern Washington 80, Weber State 91 [11] Weber State 73.4% -225 +7.0% WIN
Abilene Christian 58, California Baptist 74 [16] Abilene Christian 60.1% -127 +6.3% LOSS
Utah Tech 52, UT Arlington 56 [4] Utah Tech 58.7% -125 +5.5% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$170
ROI
34.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida Gulf Coast 74, Queens University 85 [11] Florida Gulf Coast 72.2% -162 +12.8% LOSS
West Georgia 86, Stetson 95 [9] Stetson 50.6% +155 +12.7% WIN
Milwaukee 60, Oakland 73 [13] Milwaukee 54.1% +130 +12.0% LOSS
Arkansas State 87, South Alabama 91 [4] South Alabama 51.3% +140 +11.2% WIN
James Madison 65, App State 80 [15] App State 65.3% -132 +10.6% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-15
ROI
-5.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Gonzaga @ Washington State Washington State 31.9% +1200 +24.6% LOSS
Mercer @ VMI VMI 36.4% +355 +15.4% LOSS
Robert Morris @ IU Indianapolis IU Indianapolis 48.3% +185 +14.7% WIN