Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-16
All Games Summary
Total Picks
7
Final results
7
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
85.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (7)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 51, Dayton (15-8) 78 [27] 60-74 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 141.5		 Dayton (88.5%)
Toledo (12-11) 84, Kent State (17-6) 87 [3] 76-86 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 167.8		 Kent State (76.1%)
Marquette (8-15) 75, DePaul (12-11) 80 [5] 65-77 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 144.8		 DePaul (70.4%)
Baylor (13-9) 62, Kansas #11 (17-5) 80 [18] 68-76 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 157.2		 Kansas (66.6%)
Colorado State (12-10) 73, Boise State (14-9) 79 [6] 66-79 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET OVER 139.5		 Boise State (62.7%)
Ohio (13-11) 71, Ball State (7-15) 76 [5] 73-70 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 147.5		 Ohio (54.5%)
Creighton (12-11) 88, Providence (10-13) 93 [5] 76-79 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET UNDER 161.2		 Providence (50.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
7
Final results
7
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
85.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
7
Avg Confidence
69.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2475
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
6
ML Win Rate
83.3%
ML Profit
$86
ML ROI
14.3%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$108
ROI
53.9%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
4
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
2
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-18
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
7
Avg Confidence
57.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3003
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
7
O/U Wins
4
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$64
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Marquette 75 @ DePaul 80 DePaul (70.4%) DePaul -2.8 +9.0 +11.8 +5.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Creighton 88, Providence 93 [5] Providence 50.4% N/A N/A WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$108
ROI
53.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Marquette 75, DePaul 80 [5] DePaul 70.4% -158 +11.4% WIN
Toledo 84, Kent State 87 [3] Kent State 76.1% -225 +9.7% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$63
ROI
63.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Marquette 75, DePaul 80 [5] DePaul 70.4% -158 +11.4% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$133
ROI
44.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Loyola Chicago @ Dayton Loyola Chicago 11.5% +1150 +3.9% LOSS
Ohio @ Ball State Ball State 45.5% +170 +9.8% WIN
Marquette @ DePaul DePaul 70.4% -158 +11.4% WIN