Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-18
All Games Summary
Total Picks
12
Final results
12
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
50.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (12)
UTSA (4-18) 69, Memphis (10-11) 95 [26] 59-86 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET UNDER 147.5		 Memphis (94.0%)
Arizona State (12-11) 73, Houston #8 (20-2) 103 [30] 59-86 ✗ MAE: 15.5
BET OVER 142.5		 Houston (93.4%)
Washington State (11-14) 80, San Francisco (14-11) 85 [5] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 146.2		 San Francisco (76.6%)
South Florida (15-8) 85, Wichita State (14-9) 86 [1] 82-88 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET OVER 157.5		 South Florida (66.3%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 82, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 100 [18] 72-74 ✗ MAE: 18.2
BET UNDER 149.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (64.6%)
Tulane (13-9) 63, North Texas (12-11) 71 [8] 58-62 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 137.0		 Tulane (61.1%)
Penn State (10-12) 73, Maryland (8-13) 96 [23] 63-74 ✗ MAE: 16.1
BET UNDER 146.2		 Maryland (57.5%)
UAB (14-8) 77, Tulsa (20-3) 99 [22] 75-84 ✗ MAE: 15.4
O/U: 159.0		 UAB (56.4%)
Army (10-14) 67, American University (13-11) 78 [11] 77-70 ✓ MAE: 1.8
O/U: 147.5		 American University (55.6%)
East Carolina (7-15) 70, Charlotte (13-10) 73 [3] 73-78 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 139.8		 East Carolina (51.9%)
Green Bay (13-12) 63, Oakland (14-11) 88 [25] 75-79 ✗ MAE: 14.6
O/U: 153.8		 Green Bay (50.8%) DOG
Temple (14-8) 73, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 79 [6] 73-77 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 151.0		 Temple (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
12
Final results
12
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
50.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
12
Avg Confidence
65.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1254
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
10
ML Win Rate
70.0%
ML Profit
$3
ML ROI
0.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-157
ROI
-52.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
10
ATS Wins
6
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
60.0%
Spread Profit
$145
Spread ROI
14.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
12
Avg Confidence
55.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.4063
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
9
O/U Wins
4
O/U Losses
5
O/U Win Rate
44.4%
O/U Profit
$-136
O/U ROI
-15.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-8.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
East Carolina 70, Charlotte 73 [3] East Carolina 51.9% +112 +6.7% LOSS
Green Bay 63, Oakland 88 [25] Green Bay 50.8% +145 +11.5% LOSS
Temple 73, Florida Atlantic 79 [6] Temple 50.1% +110 +4.4% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-157
ROI
-52.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Green Bay 63, Oakland 88 [25] Green Bay 50.8% +145 +11.5% LOSS
Washington State 80, San Francisco 85 [5] San Francisco 76.6% -235 +9.2% WIN
East Carolina 70, Charlotte 73 [3] East Carolina 51.9% +112 +6.7% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Green Bay 63, Oakland 88 [25] Green Bay 50.8% +145 +11.5% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$65
ROI
21.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
American University @ Army Army 44.4% +225 +15.0% LOSS
Oakland @ Green Bay Green Bay 50.8% +145 +11.5% LOSS
Wichita State @ South Florida Wichita State 33.7% +265 +7.4% WIN