Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-19
All Games Summary
Total Picks
40
Final results
40
Correct picks
30
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (40)
Elizabeth City State (0-2) 61, Norfolk State (10-14) 86 [25] 65-71 ✗ MAE: 9.4 Norfolk State (94.1%)
Saint Joseph's (15-8) 72, VCU (17-6) 79 [7] 68-86 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 151.5		 VCU (87.3%)
Manhattan (9-15) 92, Quinnipiac (15-9) 98 [6] 68-80 ✗ MAE: 21.5
BET UNDER 154.0		 Quinnipiac (86.6%)
Columbia (14-7) 74, Yale (16-4) 91 [17] 74-84 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 150.8		 Yale (78.8%)
Incarnate Word (10-13) 58, East Texas A&M (8-15) 80 [22] 63-79 ✗ MAE: 19.1
O/U: 142.8		 Incarnate Word (74.5%)
Marist (15-7) 55, Merrimack (14-9) 68 [13] 50-64 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET UNDER 133.5		 Marist (73.6%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 61, Hampton (10-13) 82 [21] 65-80 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 143.2		 Hampton (72.2%)
Fairfield (14-10) 77, Siena (16-7) 85 [8] 69-76 ✗ MAE: 8.7
O/U: 143.0		 Siena (71.4%)
Drexel (12-11) 58, Towson (13-11) 59 [1] 60-65 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 125.2		 Towson (71.3%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 65, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 68 [3] 60-70 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 135.5		 UT Rio Grande Valley (69.4%)
Maine (5-18) 48, New Hampshire (8-13) 65 [17] 57-69 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET UNDER 128.8		 Maine (68.0%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 48, Florida A&M (7-12) 62 [14] 73-69 ✗ MAE: 16.1
BET OVER 139.2		 Florida A&M (67.7%)
Loyola Maryland (9-15) 81, Lehigh (10-14) 88 [7] 68-80 ✗ MAE: 10.2
O/U: 149.5		 Lehigh (65.5%)
Iona (14-9) 63, Saint Peter's (12-8) 77 [14] 60-73 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 141.8		 Saint Peter's (64.0%)
Northeastern (6-15) 68, Monmouth (11-12) 81 [13] 69-81 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET OVER 143.2		 Monmouth (62.0%)
Pennsylvania (10-10) 63, Harvard (12-9) 64 [1] 67-78 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 150.2		 Harvard (61.9%)
Providence (10-13) 104, Marquette (8-15) 105 [1] 70-79 ✗ MAE: 29.8
BET UNDER 166.8		 Marquette (61.7%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 53, McNeese (18-5) 69 [16] 74-68 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET OVER 140.5		 McNeese (61.6%)
Binghamton (5-18) 60, UMBC (13-8) 78 [18] 76-74 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 140.5		 UMBC (60.9%)
Wagner (7-13) 61, Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 68 [7] 64-71 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 138.0		 Fairleigh Dickinson (60.4%)
Princeton (8-14) 69, Dartmouth (10-10) 71 [2] 70-72 ✓ MAE: 1.2
BET UNDER 147.8		 Dartmouth (60.2%)
Texas Southern (6-14) 89, Jackson State (6-16) 94 [5] 81-75 ✗ MAE: 13.7
O/U: 154.0		 Jackson State (59.7%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 80, Houston Christian (8-15) 82 [2] 68-73 ✗ MAE: 10.3
O/U: 139.8		 Houston Christian (59.2%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 61, Mercyhurst (11-12) 79 [18] 61-67 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 131.5		 Mercyhurst (59.2%)
George Washington (13-10) 64, George Mason (20-3) 69 [5] 68-76 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 152.8		 George Mason (58.9%)
Bryant (7-15) 55, NJIT (11-12) 79 [24] 60-67 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 134.8		 NJIT (58.2%)
Northern Colorado (13-10) 68, Montana State (13-10) 73 [5] 77-83 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 153.5		 Northern Colorado (57.8%)
Lamar (12-11) 76, New Orleans (11-13) 89 [13] 68-72 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 144.5		 New Orleans (57.7%) DOG
Chicago State (2-19) 56, New Haven (10-12) 62 [6] 64-58 ✓ MAE: 2.3
BET UNDER 129.8		 Chicago State (57.6%)
Alabama State (7-15) 69, Alabama A&M (12-10) 73 [4] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 146.2		 Alabama State (55.3%)
Rider (3-18) 85, Sacred Heart (10-14) 105 [20] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 25.9
BET UNDER 143.8		 Sacred Heart (53.9%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 82, Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 87 [5] 82-89 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET OVER 155.2		 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (53.3%) DOG
Long Island University (14-8) 77, Le Moyne (11-12) 83 [6] 71-77 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 149.8		 Le Moyne (53.1%) DOG
Northern Arizona (8-15) 72, Montana (13-10) 98 [26] 80-71 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET OVER 146.2		 Montana (53.1%)
Niagara (6-17) 58, Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 68 [10] 72-62 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET OVER 131.8		 Mount St. Mary's (52.6%)
Stonehill (9-14) 61, St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 63 [2] 69-68 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 141.5		 St. Francis (PA) (51.5%)
Brown (7-13) 67, Cornell (10-10) 89 [22] 76-80 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET UNDER 163.8		 Brown (51.0%) DOG
Nicholls (10-13) 62, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 79 [17] 67-70 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 144.2		 Nicholls (50.9%) DOG
Vermont (14-9) 68, UAlbany (7-16) 75 [7] 72-71 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET OVER 139.5		 UAlbany (50.8%) DOG
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 75, Alcorn State (4-17) 76 [1] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 152.8		 Prairie View A&M (50.2%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
40
Final results
40
Correct picks
30
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
40
Avg Confidence
65.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0985
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
31
ML Win Rate
61.3%
ML Profit
$-313
ML ROI
-10.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-40.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
2
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-309
ROI
-44.2%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-109
ROI
-36.4%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
21
ATS Wins
9
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
42.9%
Spread Profit
$-382
Spread ROI
-18.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
39
Avg Confidence
58.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1945
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
30
O/U Wins
19
O/U Losses
11
O/U Win Rate
63.3%
O/U Profit
$627
O/U ROI
20.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
1
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-109
ROI
-36.4%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
East Texas A&M 80 @ Incarnate Word 58 Incarnate Word (74.5%) Incarnate Word -6.5 +9.8 +16.3 -22.0 FAILED
North Carolina A&T 61 @ Hampton 82 Hampton (72.2%) Hampton -6.0 +8.2 +14.2 +21.0 COVERED
Merrimack 68 @ Marist 55 Marist (73.6%) Marist -6.5 +7.0 +13.5 -13.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-40.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 82, Bethune-Cookman 87 [5] Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53.3% +140 +13.2% LOSS
Long Island University 77, Le Moyne 83 [6] Le Moyne 53.1% +100 +5.3% WIN
Stonehill 61, St. Francis (PA) 63 [2] St. Francis (PA) 51.5% N/A N/A WIN
Brown 67, Cornell 89 [22] Brown 51.0% +115 +6.4% LOSS
Nicholls 62, Stephen F. Austin 79 [17] Nicholls 50.9% +132 +9.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
2
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-309
ROI
-44.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 82, Bethune-Cookman 87 [5] Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53.3% +140 +13.2% LOSS
Maine 48, New Hampshire 65 [17] Maine 68.0% -133 +13.1% LOSS
Princeton 69, Dartmouth 71 [2] Dartmouth 60.2% -110 +10.2% WIN
Nicholls 62, Stephen F. Austin 79 [17] Nicholls 50.9% +132 +9.6% LOSS
Brown 67, Cornell 89 [22] Brown 51.0% +115 +6.4% LOSS
Alabama State 69, Alabama A&M 73 [4] Alabama State 55.3% -105 +6.4% LOSS
Long Island University 77, Le Moyne 83 [6] Le Moyne 53.1% +100 +5.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-109
ROI
-36.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 82, Bethune-Cookman 87 [5] Arkansas-Pine Bluff 53.3% +140 +13.2% LOSS
Maine 48, New Hampshire 65 [17] Maine 68.0% -133 +13.1% LOSS
Princeton 69, Dartmouth 71 [2] Dartmouth 60.2% -110 +10.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida A&M @ Mississippi Valley State Mississippi Valley State 32.3% +510 +16.7% LOSS
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 38.4% +265 +12.2% LOSS
Saint Joseph's @ VCU Saint Joseph's 12.7% +1000 +4.0% LOSS