Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-20
All Games Summary
Total Picks
36
Final results
36
Correct picks
25
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (36)
Air Force (3-19) 52, Colorado State (12-10) 81 [29] 56-73 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 133.2		 Colorado State (93.6%)
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-10) 53, Morgan State (9-13) 128 [75] 82-102 ✗ MAE: 27.6 Morgan State (93.0%)
Rutgers (9-14) 62, Iowa (17-5) 68 [6] 57-77 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 140.0		 Iowa (92.1%)
San José State (6-16) 54, Nevada (16-7) 87 [33] 62-79 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 139.2		 Nevada (90.9%)
UCF (17-5) 57, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 87 [30] 61-86 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 156.5		 Iowa State (88.5%)
Utah State (19-3) 76, UNLV (10-12) 86 [10] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 157.2		 Utah State (87.9%)
Indiana (15-8) 72, Michigan #2 (20-1) 86 [14] 69-90 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 163.5		 Michigan (87.6%)
LSU (14-8) 61, Florida #17 (16-6) 79 [18] 67-86 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 158.2		 Florida (86.8%)
Northern Illinois (7-14) 77, Ohio (13-11) 80 [3] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 154.8		 Ohio (80.8%)
Miami (17-5) 63, Florida State (10-12) 65 [2] 76-85 ✗ MAE: 16.8
BET UNDER 164.2		 Miami (79.7%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 70, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 84 [14] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 147.5		 St. Bonaventure (79.7%)
Utah (9-13) 78, Kansas State (10-12) 81 [3] 75-87 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 167.0		 Kansas State (78.1%)
Seton Hall (16-7) 60, St. John's #22 (17-5) 65 [5] 63-72 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 144.5		 St. John's (77.9%)
Minnesota (11-12) 74, Ohio State (14-7) 82 [8] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 7.0
O/U: 143.5		 Ohio State (75.3%)
DePaul (12-11) 80, Butler (13-10) 87 [7] 70-75 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 148.0		 Butler (75.0%)
Oklahoma State (16-6) 65, TCU (13-9) 68 [3] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 162.2		 TCU (74.9%)
Mid-Atlantic Christian (0-5) 50, South Carolina State (6-16) 56 [6] 68-78 ✗ MAE: 19.9 South Carolina State (74.2%)
Evansville (5-18) 49, UIC (13-11) 76 [27] 60-69 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 138.8		 UIC (73.6%)
UT Martin (18-5) 50, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 66 [16] 65-73 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 142.5		 Southeast Missouri State (71.7%)
Toledo (12-11) 82, Massachusetts (15-9) 84 [2] 78-88 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET OVER 163.8		 Massachusetts (69.5%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 54, Bowling Green (14-9) 72 [18] 83-78 ✗ MAE: 17.7
BET OVER 152.5		 Bowling Green (66.2%)
Clemson #20 (19-4) 76, NC State (17-6) 80 [4] 65-73 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 142.0		 Clemson (66.0%)
Duquesne (13-10) 77, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 81 [4] 84-85 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET OVER 165.8		 Saint Louis (65.2%)
Oregon (8-14) 52, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 68 [16] 74-68 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET OVER 138.8		 Michigan State (64.7%)
Buffalo (14-9) 63, Akron (19-4) 82 [19] 84-82 ✗ MAE: 10.5
O/U: 167.5		 Akron (62.2%)
Wyoming (13-10) 65, Boise State (14-9) 81 [16] 79-81 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 143.2		 Wyoming (61.0%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 67, Ball State (7-15) 68 [1] 67-74 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 142.5		 Central Michigan (60.5%) DOG
Wake Forest (11-11) 79, SMU (15-7) 91 [12] 81-84 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 156.8		 Wake Forest (59.3%) DOG
Kent State (17-6) 101, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 107 [6] 78-80 ✗ MAE: 25.4
BET UNDER 167.5		 Kent State (57.0%)
Missouri (15-7) 72, Georgia (16-6) 74 [2] 82-83 ✗ MAE: 9.1
O/U: 164.2		 Missouri (55.9%)
Colorado (13-10) 69, Kansas #11 (17-5) 75 [6] 76-74 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 155.0		 Kansas (55.7%)
Purdue #12 (18-4) 67, UCLA (16-7) 69 [2] 78-73 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 146.8		 Purdue (55.5%)
Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 68, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 93 [25] 78-88 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 174.5		 Arkansas (55.2%)
Oklahoma (11-12) 76, South Carolina (11-12) 85 [9] 73-77 ✓ MAE: 5.8
O/U: 150.5		 South Carolina (53.7%) DOG
Baylor (13-9) 73, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 92 [19] 78-83 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET OVER 154.2		 Baylor (52.7%) DOG
Ole Miss (11-11) 66, Auburn (14-8) 78 [12] 73-79 ✗ MAE: 9.1
O/U: 151.2		 Ole Miss (50.8%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
36
Final results
36
Correct picks
25
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
36
Avg Confidence
71.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1608
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
31
ML Win Rate
71.0%
ML Profit
$-239
ML ROI
-7.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-66.7%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
2
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-364
ROI
-52.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-64
ROI
-16.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
17
ATS Wins
7
ATS Losses
10
ATS Win Rate
41.2%
Spread Profit
$-364
Spread ROI
-21.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-11.2%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
34
Avg Confidence
54.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2916
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
30
O/U Wins
20
O/U Losses
10
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$818
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-66.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Kent State 101, Miami (OH) 107 [6] Kent State 57.0% N/A N/A LOSS
Baylor 73, Texas Tech 92 [19] Baylor 52.7% +115 +7.9% LOSS
Ole Miss 66, Auburn 78 [12] Ole Miss 50.8% +125 +7.9% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
2
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-364
ROI
-52.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Toledo 82, Massachusetts 84 [2] Massachusetts 69.5% -132 +14.7% WIN
Wyoming 65, Boise State 81 [16] Wyoming 61.0% -105 +12.4% LOSS
UT Martin 50, Southeast Missouri State 66 [16] Southeast Missouri State 71.7% -166 +11.7% WIN
Wake Forest 79, SMU 91 [12] Wake Forest 59.3% -105 +10.4% LOSS
Baylor 73, Texas Tech 92 [19] Baylor 52.7% +115 +7.9% LOSS
Ole Miss 66, Auburn 78 [12] Ole Miss 50.8% +125 +7.9% LOSS
Missouri 72, Georgia 74 [2] Missouri 55.9% -110 +5.9% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-64
ROI
-16.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Toledo 82, Massachusetts 84 [2] Massachusetts 69.5% -132 +14.7% WIN
Wyoming 65, Boise State 81 [16] Wyoming 61.0% -105 +12.4% LOSS
UT Martin 50, Southeast Missouri State 66 [16] Southeast Missouri State 71.7% -166 +11.7% WIN
Wake Forest 79, SMU 91 [12] Wake Forest 59.3% -105 +10.4% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan State @ Oregon Oregon 35.3% +525 +20.0% LOSS
Saint Louis @ Duquesne Duquesne 34.8% +337 +13.0% LOSS
Northern Illinois @ Ohio Northern Illinois 19.2% +650 +6.5% LOSS