Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-21
All Games Summary
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
37
Incorrect picks
17
Pending
0
Accuracy
68.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (54)
Pepperdine (6-18) 60, Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 84 [24] 63-92 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET OVER 150.5		 Gonzaga (95.4%)
Maryland (8-13) 70, Illinois #5 (20-3) 89 [19] 60-84 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 152.5		 Illinois (93.8%)
Oregon State (13-12) 51, Saint Mary's (20-4) 81 [30] 57-79 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 141.5		 Saint Mary's (92.6%)
Fresno State (11-11) 74, New Mexico (18-5) 83 [9] 57-80 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 150.2		 New Mexico (89.3%)
UTSA (4-18) 62, North Texas (12-11) 81 [19] 57-78 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 138.2		 North Texas (87.7%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 69, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 91 [22] 66-74 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 148.8		 North Carolina (87.5%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 51, Arizona #1 (22-0) 77 [26] 69-83 ✗ MAE: 12.2
O/U: 152.2		 Arizona (87.4%)
Wright State (15-9) 79, Cleveland State (10-14) 85 [6] 70-80 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 158.2		 Wright State (87.1%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 56, Longwood (13-12) 91 [35] 67-79 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 155.8		 Longwood (86.4%)
East Carolina (7-15) 60, Wichita State (14-9) 77 [17] 65-83 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 145.2		 Wichita State (84.9%)
Oakland (14-11) 85, IU Indianapolis (6-18) 103 [18] 75-90 ✗ MAE: 16.4
BET UNDER 176.0		 Oakland (83.8%)
Washington (12-11) 66, Nebraska #9 (20-2) 76 [10] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 0.5
BET UNDER 151.8		 Nebraska (79.3%)
Tulane (13-9) 74, Florida Atlantic (14-10) 79 [5] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 155.8		 Florida Atlantic (79.1%)
Holy Cross (8-16) 68, Navy (18-6) 85 [17] 56-65 ✗ MAE: 16.2
BET UNDER 134.8		 Navy (77.9%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 76, Mercer (15-8) 88 [12] 78-82 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 158.8		 Mercer (76.7%)
Mississippi State (11-11) 68, Texas A&M (17-5) 88 [20] 76-85 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 163.5		 Texas A&M (76.7%)
Omaha (12-12) 64, South Dakota (13-12) 68 [4] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 160.5		 Omaha (76.6%)
Indiana State (10-14) 68, Bradley (16-8) 75 [7] 73-82 ✓ MAE: 6.0
O/U: 155.5		 Bradley (76.0%)
Radford (13-12) 75, Winthrop (17-8) 76 [1] 82-84 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 165.2		 Winthrop (75.6%)
Georgetown (13-10) 51, Villanova (17-5) 66 [15] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 142.2		 Villanova (75.3%)
Texas (14-9) 80, Kentucky (16-7) 85 [5] 80-83 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET OVER 152.2		 Kentucky (74.8%)
Xavier (12-11) 93, Creighton (12-11) 94 [1] 71-85 ✗ MAE: 15.4
O/U: 155.5		 Creighton (74.8%)
Lafayette (7-17) 73, Boston University (9-15) 77 [4] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 145.5		 Boston University (74.0%)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 59, Seattle U (15-9) 69 [10] 67-75 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 140.5		 Seattle U (73.4%)
Northern Iowa (14-9) 54, Illinois State (15-8) 59 [5] 56-67 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 132.2		 Illinois State (73.0%)
Utah Tech (13-11) 64, California Baptist (16-6) 73 [9] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 143.5		 California Baptist (72.6%)
USC (17-6) 68, Northwestern (10-13) 74 [6] 74-80 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 149.2		 USC (72.1%)
Furman (16-8) 75, The Citadel (8-15) 77 [2] 77-73 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET OVER 142.5		 Furman (71.1%)
Dayton (15-8) 64, La Salle (7-16) 67 [3] 70-70 ✓ MAE: 4.1
O/U: 137.5		 Dayton (70.5%)
Utah Valley (16-6) 70, Southern Utah (8-15) 84 [14] 80-73 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 159.0		 Utah Valley (70.4%)
Memphis (10-11) 66, Tulsa (20-3) 83 [17] 70-80 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 154.0		 Tulsa (70.4%)
Richmond (13-10) 68, Rhode Island (13-9) 69 [1] 65-70 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 143.5		 Richmond (69.8%)
North Alabama (7-14) 62, Queens University (12-11) 87 [25] 74-88 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 162.5		 Queens University (68.5%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 77, Troy (16-8) 83 [6] 77-76 ✓ MAE: 3.6
O/U: 152.2		 Troy (66.5%)
Kennesaw State (14-8) 87, Sam Houston (16-7) 93 [6] 75-84 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET UNDER 165.5		 Sam Houston (66.0%)
Colgate (14-10) 66, American University (13-11) 70 [4] 65-73 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 146.8		 American University (65.1%)
Tarleton State (11-11) 64, UT Arlington (14-7) 71 [7] 65-75 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 142.8		 UT Arlington (64.3%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 69, UNC Asheville (11-13) 83 [14] 71-79 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET OVER 144.5		 South Carolina Upstate (63.1%)
Bucknell (8-16) 84, Army (10-14) 87 [3] 67-77 ✗ MAE: 13.6
O/U: 144.0		 Bucknell (62.9%)
Fordham (12-11) 63, Davidson (13-9) 68 [5] 63-69 ✓ MAE: 0.6
BET UNDER 135.8		 Davidson (61.9%)
Samford (11-12) 78, Wofford (16-8) 88 [10] 73-84 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET OVER 154.5		 Wofford (61.3%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 63, Valparaiso (11-12) 69 [6] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 142.5		 Valparaiso (61.3%)
Syracuse (13-10) 74, Virginia Tech (16-7) 76 [2] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 151.2		 Syracuse (59.2%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 83, Presbyterian (11-13) 87 [4] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 147.5		 Presbyterian (57.3%) DOG
Arizona State (12-11) 63, West Virginia (14-8) 75 [12] 66-72 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 145.5		 Arizona State (56.9%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 69, Liberty (19-3) 76 [7] 70-75 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 148.8		 Western Kentucky (55.5%) DOG
San Diego State (16-6) 69, Grand Canyon (15-7) 70 [1] 71-77 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET OVER 143.8		 Grand Canyon (55.0%) DOG
Rice (10-13) 65, Temple (14-8) 69 [4] 69-72 ✓ MAE: 3.6
O/U: 142.5		 Rice (52.8%)
Murray State (17-7) 90, Drake (12-12) 101 [11] 76-71 ✗ MAE: 21.9
BET UNDER 156.8		 Murray State (52.5%)
Washington State (11-14) 92, San Diego (10-15) 96 [4] 72-76 ✗ MAE: 19.6
BET UNDER 152.5		 San Diego (52.2%) DOG
Chattanooga (9-14) 66, East Tennessee State (17-7) 67 [1] 72-67 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 143.5		 East Tennessee State (52.0%)
Detroit Mercy (10-12) 76, Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 83 [7] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 155.5		 Detroit Mercy (51.7%) DOG
Pittsburgh (9-14) 62, Boston College (9-13) 65 [3] 67-69 ✓ MAE: 4.5
O/U: 137.2		 Boston College (50.9%) DOG
VMI (6-18) 78, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 85 [7] 78-78 ✓ MAE: 3.4
BET OVER 151.5		 VMI (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
37
Incorrect picks
17
Pending
0
Accuracy
68.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
71.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0764
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
49
ML Win Rate
69.4%
ML Profit
$-176
ML ROI
-3.6%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$43
ROI
7.1%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
10
Wins
5
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-73
ROI
-7.3%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-112
ROI
-22.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
25
ATS Wins
16
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
64.0%
Spread Profit
$554
Spread ROI
22.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+11.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
52.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1794
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
42
O/U Wins
27
O/U Losses
15
O/U Win Rate
64.3%
O/U Profit
$954
O/U ROI
22.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+11.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
East Carolina 60 @ Wichita State 77 Wichita State (84.9%) Wichita State -11.8 +6.6 +18.4 +17.0 COVERED
Xavier 93 @ Creighton 94 Creighton (74.8%) Creighton -7.8 +6.6 +14.3 +1.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$43
ROI
7.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Charleston Southern 83, Presbyterian 87 [4] Presbyterian 57.3% N/A N/A WIN
Western Kentucky 69, Liberty 76 [7] Western Kentucky 55.5% N/A N/A LOSS
Rice 65, Temple 69 [4] Rice 52.8% +101 +5.2% LOSS
Washington State 92, San Diego 96 [4] San Diego 52.2% +132 +10.8% WIN
Detroit Mercy 76, Purdue Fort Wayne 83 [7] Detroit Mercy 51.7% +124 +8.9% LOSS
Pittsburgh 62, Boston College 65 [3] Boston College 50.9% +110 +5.2% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Omaha 64, South Dakota 68 [4] Omaha 76.6% -214 +11.2% LOSS
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
10
Wins
5
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-73
ROI
-7.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Carolina Upstate 69, UNC Asheville 83 [14] South Carolina Upstate 63.1% -110 +13.1% LOSS
Richmond 68, Rhode Island 69 [1] Richmond 69.8% -150 +11.8% LOSS
Loyola Marymount 59, Seattle U 69 [10] Seattle U 73.4% -181 +11.5% WIN
Omaha 64, South Dakota 68 [4] Omaha 76.6% -214 +11.2% LOSS
Washington State 92, San Diego 96 [4] San Diego 52.2% +132 +10.8% WIN
Detroit Mercy 76, Purdue Fort Wayne 83 [7] Detroit Mercy 51.7% +124 +8.9% LOSS
Southern Illinois 63, Valparaiso 69 [6] Valparaiso 61.3% -121 +8.9% WIN
Lafayette 73, Boston University 77 [4] Boston University 74.0% -215 +8.4% WIN
Rice 65, Temple 69 [4] Rice 52.8% +101 +5.2% LOSS
Pittsburgh 62, Boston College 65 [3] Boston College 50.9% +110 +5.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
2
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
40.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-112
ROI
-22.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Carolina Upstate 69, UNC Asheville 83 [14] South Carolina Upstate 63.1% -110 +13.1% LOSS
Richmond 68, Rhode Island 69 [1] Richmond 69.8% -150 +11.8% LOSS
Loyola Marymount 59, Seattle U 69 [10] Seattle U 73.4% -181 +11.5% WIN
Omaha 64, South Dakota 68 [4] Omaha 76.6% -214 +11.2% LOSS
Washington State 92, San Diego 96 [4] San Diego 52.2% +132 +10.8% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$270
ROI
90.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Pepperdine @ Gonzaga Pepperdine 4.6% +4000 +2.3% LOSS
North Alabama @ Queens University North Alabama 31.5% +500 +15.5% LOSS
Utah Valley @ Southern Utah Southern Utah 29.6% +470 +12.8% WIN