Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-22
All Games Summary
Total Picks
49
Final results
49
Correct picks
37
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (49)
UL Monroe (4-20) 60, Marshall (15-8) 115 [55] 75-92 ✗ MAE: 18.8
BET OVER 159.2		 Marshall (90.1%)
Stetson (8-15) 74, Lipscomb (15-9) 79 [5] 69-88 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 157.8		 Lipscomb (89.3%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 71, Hawai'i (16-5) 98 [27] 56-79 ✗ MAE: 16.6
BET UNDER 144.5		 Hawai'i (85.3%)
Sacramento State (9-13) 76, Idaho (13-9) 86 [10] 75-82 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 161.5		 Idaho (81.6%)
Niagara (6-17) 61, Fairfield (14-10) 62 [1] 67-77 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 139.8		 Fairfield (78.1%)
Louisiana (8-16) 58, App State (16-9) 72 [14] 60-68 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET OVER 123.5		 App State (77.7%)
Canisius (8-16) 66, Sacred Heart (10-14) 69 [3] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 144.5		 Sacred Heart (77.3%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 76, Robert Morris (15-10) 88 [12] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 152.5		 Robert Morris (74.9%)
Tennessee Tech (9-14) 68, Lindenwood (14-10) 89 [21] 70-82 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 151.5		 Lindenwood (74.8%)
Green Bay (13-12) 81, Youngstown State (12-12) 88 [7] 67-82 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET OVER 139.5		 Youngstown State (74.7%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 69, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 74 [5] 71-84 ✓ MAE: 5.7
O/U: 155.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (74.4%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 66, Morehead State (12-11) 71 [5] 62-71 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET UNDER 139.2		 Morehead State (74.1%)
Little Rock (9-14) 65, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 70 [5] 64-74 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 147.5		 Southeast Missouri State (74.0%)
Cal Poly (9-14) 67, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 107 [40] 69-82 ✗ MAE: 13.8
BET UNDER 159.0		 UC Santa Barbara (74.0%)
NJIT (11-12) 74, UMBC (13-8) 87 [13] 63-77 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 143.5		 UMBC (72.4%)
New Mexico State (11-11) 75, Missouri State (13-9) 84 [9] 71-73 ✓ MAE: 7.7
O/U: 144.0		 New Mexico State (71.8%)
Binghamton (5-18) 82, New Hampshire (8-13) 88 [6] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 15.0
BET OVER 136.2		 New Hampshire (71.2%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 61, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 71 [10] 76-84 ✗ MAE: 13.8
O/U: 160.5		 Cal State Fullerton (70.4%)
Campbell (10-13) 83, Charleston (15-8) 87 [4] 71-80 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 160.5		 Charleston (70.1%)
Idaho State (10-13) 62, Montana State (13-10) 74 [12] 73-83 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 143.8		 Montana State (68.4%)
Weber State (11-12) 65, Montana (13-10) 81 [16] 76-84 ✓ MAE: 7.0
O/U: 158.2		 Montana (67.4%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 70, Bellarmine (9-13) 77 [7] 73-76 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 139.0		 Jacksonville (67.3%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 62, Austin Peay (16-6) 83 [21] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 155.8		 Austin Peay (66.6%)
Hofstra (14-9) 78, North Carolina A&T (9-12) 79 [1] 73-72 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 146.5		 Hofstra (66.3%)
Monmouth (11-12) 63, Hampton (10-13) 65 [2] 58-64 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 135.2		 Hampton (65.7%)
James Madison (11-13) 83, South Alabama (16-7) 90 [7] 64-73 ✗ MAE: 17.9
O/U: 138.2		 James Madison (63.0%)
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 85, North Florida (5-18) 87 [2] 86-77 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 167.0		 Eastern Kentucky (62.3%)
Elon (13-10) 59, Towson (13-11) 72 [13] 70-76 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 145.5		 Elon (61.6%)
Northeastern (6-15) 80, Stony Brook (14-9) 95 [15] 69-77 ✗ MAE: 14.5
BET UNDER 148.8		 Northeastern (61.3%)
UNC Wilmington (19-3) 70, William & Mary (14-8) 77 [7] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 157.5		 William & Mary (60.7%)
Texas State (14-11) 70, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 72 [2] 71-79 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 140.5		 Coastal Carolina (60.5%)
Tennessee State (14-8) 66, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 74 [8] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 1.6
O/U: 143.0		 SIU Edwardsville (59.9%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 51, Eastern Illinois (9-14) 59 [8] 62-70 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 135.2		 Southern Indiana (58.9%)
Penn State (10-12) 71, Wisconsin (16-6) 98 [27] 78-73 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 157.2		 Wisconsin (58.8%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 62, North Dakota (13-12) 79 [17] 71-79 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 147.5		 Oral Roberts (58.5%)
Southern Miss (12-13) 62, Georgia State (9-15) 69 [7] 71-74 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 145.0		 Georgia State (58.3%)
Merrimack (14-9) 60, Iona (14-9) 61 [1] 64-69 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 143.2		 Iona (57.6%) DOG
Marist (15-7) 50, Siena (16-7) 69 [19] 59-60 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 134.2		 Siena (55.5%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 68, Vermont (14-9) 77 [9] 73-71 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 145.8		 Vermont (54.7%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 66, UC Irvine (15-7) 80 [14] 74-73 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET OVER 142.5		 UC Irvine (54.0%)
Florida International (11-11) 77, UTEP (8-15) 83 [6] 68-75 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 150.2		 UTEP (53.5%) DOG
Denver (9-15) 77, North Dakota State (19-5) 82 [5] 85-78 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 159.2		 North Dakota State (53.2%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 68, Arkansas State (14-10) 85 [17] 79-86 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 174.8		 Georgia Southern (53.1%) DOG
UAlbany (7-16) 49, Maine (5-18) 52 [3] 65-69 ✗ MAE: 16.8
BET OVER 131.5		 Maine (53.0%) DOG
UAB (14-8) 69, South Florida (15-8) 82 [13] 86-93 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET OVER 168.5		 UAB (52.7%) DOG
UC Davis (13-9) 74, UC San Diego (15-8) 80 [6] 76-78 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 151.8		 UC Davis (51.0%) DOG
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 62, Quinnipiac (15-9) 77 [15] 76-71 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 146.8		 Quinnipiac (51.0%)
West Georgia (10-12) 65, Central Arkansas (13-10) 86 [21] 88-79 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET OVER 153.8		 Central Arkansas (50.2%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 61, Portland State (15-6) 65 [4] 86-75 ✗ MAE: 17.5
BET OVER 150.8		 Portland State (50.0%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
49
Final results
49
Correct picks
37
Incorrect picks
12
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
49
Avg Confidence
68.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0804
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
41
ML Win Rate
70.7%
ML Profit
$139
ML ROI
3.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-55
ROI
-9.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
8
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
53.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-38
ROI
-2.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
33
ATS Wins
19
ATS Losses
14
ATS Win Rate
57.6%
Spread Profit
$327
Spread ROI
9.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+5.2%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
49
Avg Confidence
55.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2159
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
35
O/U Wins
19
O/U Losses
16
O/U Win Rate
54.3%
O/U Profit
$127
O/U ROI
3.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+1.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
1
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-109
ROI
-36.4%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Green Bay 81 @ Youngstown State 88 Youngstown State (74.7%) Youngstown State -7.5 +7.4 +14.9 +7.0 FAILED
South Dakota State 69 @ St. Thomas-Minnesota 74 St. Thomas-Minnesota (74.4%) St. Thomas-Minnesota -6.5 +6.5 +13.0 +5.0 FAILED
NJIT 74 @ UMBC 87 UMBC (72.4%) UMBC -7.5 +6.2 +13.7 +13.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-55
ROI
-9.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Merrimack 60, Iona 61 [1] Iona 57.6% N/A N/A WIN
Florida International 77, UTEP 83 [6] UTEP 53.5% +105 +6.7% WIN
Georgia Southern 68, Arkansas State 85 [17] Georgia Southern 53.1% +120 +9.3% LOSS
UAlbany 49, Maine 52 [3] Maine 53.0% +140 +12.9% WIN
UAB 69, South Florida 82 [13] UAB 52.7% +119 +8.8% LOSS
UC Davis 74, UC San Diego 80 [6] UC Davis 51.0% +129 +9.2% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
8
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
53.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-38
ROI
-2.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Monmouth 63, Hampton 65 [2] Hampton 65.7% -120 +13.5% WIN
UAlbany 49, Maine 52 [3] Maine 53.0% +140 +12.9% WIN
Oral Roberts 62, North Dakota 79 [17] Oral Roberts 58.5% -105 +9.8% LOSS
Southern Miss 62, Georgia State 69 [7] Georgia State 58.3% -105 +9.4% WIN
Georgia Southern 68, Arkansas State 85 [17] Georgia Southern 53.1% +120 +9.3% LOSS
UC Davis 74, UC San Diego 80 [6] UC Davis 51.0% +129 +9.2% LOSS
UAB 69, South Florida 82 [13] UAB 52.7% +119 +8.8% LOSS
Tennessee State 66, SIU Edwardsville 74 [8] SIU Edwardsville 59.9% -116 +8.5% WIN
Long Beach State 61, Cal State Fullerton 71 [10] Cal State Fullerton 70.4% -185 +8.1% WIN
Milwaukee 76, Robert Morris 88 [12] Robert Morris 74.9% -240 +7.0% WIN
Florida International 77, UTEP 83 [6] UTEP 53.5% +105 +6.7% WIN
Jacksonville 70, Bellarmine 77 [7] Jacksonville 67.3% -170 +6.7% LOSS
Elon 59, Towson 72 [13] Elon 61.6% -135 +6.3% LOSS
Florida Gulf Coast 62, Austin Peay 83 [21] Austin Peay 66.6% -175 +5.2% WIN
James Madison 83, South Alabama 90 [7] James Madison 63.0% -150 +5.1% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$223
ROI
111.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Monmouth 63, Hampton 65 [2] Hampton 65.7% -120 +13.5% WIN
UAlbany 49, Maine 52 [3] Maine 53.0% +140 +12.9% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$500
ROI
166.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Hofstra @ North Carolina A&T North Carolina A&T 33.7% +360 +13.0% WIN
Quinnipiac @ Mount St. Mary's Mount St. Mary's 49.0% +180 +14.8% LOSS
Eastern Kentucky @ North Florida North Florida 37.7% +240 +9.3% WIN