Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-23
All Games Summary
Total Picks
25
Final results
25
Correct picks
19
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
76.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (25)
The Citadel (8-15) 55, East Tennessee State (17-7) 84 [29] 60-81 ✓ MAE: 3.7
O/U: 141.2		 East Tennessee State (91.8%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 43, App State (16-9) 59 [16] 69-85 ✗ MAE: 26.1
BET OVER 144.5		 App State (88.9%)
Ohio State (14-7) 62, Michigan #2 (20-1) 74 [12] 70-89 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 165.5		 Michigan (88.5%)
Stetson (8-15) 65, Austin Peay (16-6) 73 [8] 69-84 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 146.8		 Austin Peay (87.6%)
North Texas (12-11) 59, East Carolina (7-15) 63 [4] 56-70 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 134.8		 North Texas (79.6%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 71, Lipscomb (15-9) 86 [15] 71-77 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 154.5		 Lipscomb (73.9%)
Marquette (8-15) 76, Butler (13-10) 87 [11] 69-78 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 161.5		 Butler (73.6%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 64, Southern Indiana (5-17) 96 [32] 62-72 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 136.2		 Southern Indiana (72.1%)
Central Connecticut (11-10) 66, Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 76 [10] 65-73 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 140.5		 Central Connecticut (72.0%)
Rutgers (9-14) 59, Indiana (15-8) 82 [23] 77-70 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 147.5		 Indiana (68.8%)
St. Bonaventure (13-10) 62, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 97 [35] 83-83 ✗ MAE: 17.9
BET OVER 158.8		 Saint Louis (65.6%)
Wagner (7-13) 67, Le Moyne (11-12) 69 [2] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 2.3
O/U: 142.5		 Le Moyne (64.1%)
Ohio (13-11) 65, Akron (19-4) 86 [21] 81-78 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 167.5		 Akron (63.1%)
Stonehill (9-14) 63, Long Island University (14-8) 66 [3] 72-64 ✓ MAE: 3.5
O/U: 137.5		 Long Island University (61.2%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 79, Longwood (13-12) 81 [2] 75-82 ✓ MAE: 2.8
O/U: 156.2		 Longwood (59.7%)
Chicago State (2-19) 60, St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 81 [21] 63-74 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 143.0		 St. Francis (PA) (59.0%)
New Haven (10-12) 57, Mercyhurst (11-12) 61 [4] 57-63 ✓ MAE: 5.0
O/U: 122.2		 New Haven (58.4%) DOG
Kennesaw State (14-8) 76, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 82 [6] 64-72 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 144.5		 Louisiana Tech (58.3%) DOG
Tulane (13-9) 70, Charlotte (13-10) 73 [3] 69-78 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET OVER 143.0		 Charlotte (57.7%)
Radford (13-12) 83, High Point (21-4) 93 [10] 83-78 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 164.8		 High Point (57.6%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 66, Furman (16-8) 89 [23] 76-79 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET OVER 150.5		 UNC Greensboro (57.3%) DOG
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 58, Jacksonville State (11-10) 75 [17] 62-70 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 133.8		 Jacksonville State (56.9%) DOG
Colorado State (12-10) 61, Utah State (19-3) 65 [4] 75-72 ✗ MAE: 10.7
O/U: 148.8		 Utah State (56.3%)
Buffalo (14-9) 67, Massachusetts (15-9) 68 [1] 77-86 ✗ MAE: 14.3
BET OVER 159.5		 Buffalo (54.7%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 65, Gardner-Webb (3-21) 67 [2] 76-70 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 153.5		 South Carolina Upstate (53.0%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
25
Final results
25
Correct picks
19
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
76.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
25
Avg Confidence
67.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1474
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
21
ML Win Rate
81.0%
ML Profit
$161
ML ROI
7.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-33.3%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-111
ROI
-37.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
13
ATS Wins
7
ATS Losses
6
ATS Win Rate
53.8%
Spread Profit
$36
Spread ROI
2.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+1.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
25
Avg Confidence
60.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1954
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
17
O/U Wins
8
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
47.1%
O/U Profit
$-173
O/U ROI
-10.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-5.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-33.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Charleston Southern 79, Longwood 81 [2] Longwood 59.7% N/A N/A WIN
Kennesaw State 76, Louisiana Tech 82 [6] Louisiana Tech 58.3% N/A N/A WIN
Buffalo 67, Massachusetts 68 [1] Buffalo 54.7% +109 +8.9% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-111
ROI
-37.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Buffalo 67, Massachusetts 68 [1] Buffalo 54.7% +109 +8.9% LOSS
New Haven 57, Mercyhurst 61 [4] New Haven 58.4% -115 +7.3% LOSS
Middle Tennessee 58, Jacksonville State 75 [17] Jacksonville State 56.9% -112 +7.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Akron @ Ohio Ohio 36.9% +345 +15.5% LOSS
High Point @ Radford Radford 42.4% +280 +17.2% LOSS
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure St. Bonaventure 34.4% +330 +12.2% LOSS