Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
7
Final results
4
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
3
Accuracy
75.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
⏰ UPCOMING GAMES (3)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 0, New Haven (10-12) 0 [0] 62-70 New Haven (68.2%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 0, IU Indianapolis (6-18) 0 [0] 73-80 IU Indianapolis (57.3%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 0, Evansville (5-18) 0 [0] 66-73
O/U: 140.8		 Evansville (51.8%) DOG
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (4)
Chicago State (2-19) 59, Mercyhurst (11-12) 61 [2] 55-71 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 131.0		 Mercyhurst (74.9%)
Oregon (8-14) 57, Washington (12-11) 72 [15] 73-73 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET OVER 143.0		 Washington (73.4%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 75, South Florida (15-8) 89 [14] 79-89 ✓ MAE: 2.2
O/U: 166.8		 South Florida (67.4%)
Wisconsin (16-6) 71, USC (17-6) 73 [2] 71-85 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 158.2		 Wisconsin (66.3%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
7
Final results
4
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
3
Accuracy
75.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
4
Avg Confidence
72.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1731
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
75.0%
ML Profit
$-11
ML ROI
-2.6%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
3
ATS Wins
1
ATS Losses
2
ATS Win Rate
33.3%
Spread Profit
$-109
Spread ROI
-36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-19.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
4
Avg Confidence
55.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.5204
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Oregon 57 @ Washington 72 Washington (73.4%) Washington -7.8 +8.2 -0.4 +15.0 COVERED
Chicago State 59 @ Mercyhurst 61 Mercyhurst (74.9%) Mercyhurst -8.8 +6.8 +15.6 +2.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southern Illinois 0, Evansville 0 [0] Evansville 51.8% +138 +11.4% PENDING
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southern Illinois 0, Evansville 0 [0] Evansville 51.8% +138 +11.4% PENDING
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southern Illinois 0, Evansville 0 [0] Evansville 51.8% +138 +11.4% PENDING
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southern Illinois @ Evansville Evansville 51.8% +138 +11.4% PENDING
Oregon @ Washington Oregon 26.6% +350 +5.4% LOSS
Chicago State @ Mercyhurst Chicago State 25.1% +360 +4.3% LOSS