Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-26
All Games Summary
Total Picks
15
Final results
10
Correct picks
5
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
5
Accuracy
50.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
⏰ UPCOMING GAMES (5)
Wagner (7-13) 0, Long Island University (14-8) 0 [0] 68-74
O/U: 144.5		 Long Island University (77.5%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 0, Tarleton State (11-11) 0 [0] 70-75
O/U: 145.5		 Tarleton State (72.4%)
East Texas A&M (8-15) 0, Lamar (12-11) 0 [0] 59-69 Lamar (68.3%)
Alabama A&M (12-10) 0, Prairie View A&M (9-13) 0 [0] 72-74 Prairie View A&M (65.5%)
Howard (14-9) 0, Coppin State (3-21) 0 [0] 68-66 Coppin State (53.7%)
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (10)
Alcorn State (4-17) 73, Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 82 [9] 66-80 ✓ MAE: 4.3
O/U: 147.0		 Bethune-Cookman (86.4%)
Penn State (10-12) 78, Ohio State (14-7) 84 [6] 65-82 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 153.5		 Ohio State (83.5%)
Norfolk State (10-14) 78, Morgan State (9-13) 79 [1] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 152.8		 Norfolk State (75.0%)
Louisville #24 (16-6) 52, Duke #4 (21-1) 83 [31] 66-82 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET UNDER 157.2		 Duke (74.7%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 55, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 64 [9] 64-68 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 135.8		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (70.8%)
Florida A&M (7-12) 65, Jackson State (6-16) 66 [1] 71-80 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 149.8		 Florida A&M (66.1%)
Delaware State (6-15) 64, South Carolina State (6-16) 70 [6] 63-56 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 135.8		 South Carolina State (60.0%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 74, Le Moyne (11-12) 87 [13] 68-74 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 140.8		 Fairleigh Dickinson (55.1%) DOG
BYU #16 (17-5) 83, Arizona #1 (22-0) 86 [3] 73-82 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 166.8		 BYU (52.2%) DOG
Central Connecticut (11-10) 59, Stonehill (9-14) 61 [2] 64-68 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 135.8		 Stonehill (50.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
15
Final results
10
Correct picks
5
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
5
Accuracy
50.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
69.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2550
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
9
ML Win Rate
44.4%
ML Profit
$-310
ML ROI
-34.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-58
ROI
-19.3%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
1
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-158
ROI
-39.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-58
ROI
-19.3%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
9
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
7
ATS Win Rate
22.2%
Spread Profit
$-518
Spread ROI
-57.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-30.2%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
62.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.4220
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
9
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$245
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Louisville #24 52 @ Duke #4 83 Duke (74.7%) Duke -8.5 +7.7 +16.2 +31.0 COVERED
Penn State 78 @ Ohio State 84 Ohio State (83.5%) Ohio State -11.8 +6.0 +17.7 +6.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-58
ROI
-19.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Fairleigh Dickinson 74, Le Moyne 87 [13] Fairleigh Dickinson 55.1% +122 +12.0% LOSS
BYU 83, Arizona 86 [3] BYU 52.2% +120 +8.4% LOSS
Central Connecticut 59, Stonehill 61 [2] Stonehill 50.4% +142 +10.6% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
1
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-158
ROI
-39.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 55, UT Rio Grande Valley 64 [9] Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 70.8% -147 +13.8% LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson 74, Le Moyne 87 [13] Fairleigh Dickinson 55.1% +122 +12.0% LOSS
Central Connecticut 59, Stonehill 61 [2] Stonehill 50.4% +142 +10.6% WIN
Abilene Christian 0, Tarleton State 0 [0] Tarleton State 72.4% -196 +8.8% PENDING
BYU 83, Arizona 86 [3] BYU 52.2% +120 +8.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-58
ROI
-19.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 55, UT Rio Grande Valley 64 [9] Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 70.8% -147 +13.8% LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson 74, Le Moyne 87 [13] Fairleigh Dickinson 55.1% +122 +12.0% LOSS
Central Connecticut 59, Stonehill 61 [2] Stonehill 50.4% +142 +10.6% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
1
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$325
ROI
162.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Penn State @ Ohio State Penn State 16.5% +700 +4.6% LOSS
Morgan State @ Norfolk State Morgan State 25.0% +425 +6.9% WIN
Wagner @ Long Island University Wagner 22.5% +450 +5.2% PENDING