Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-27
All Games Summary
Total Picks
35
Final results
35
Correct picks
28
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (35)
Northwestern State (6-16) 67, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 69 [2] 56-76 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 141.5		 Stephen F. Austin (88.8%)
Providence (10-13) 81, UConn #3 (22-1) 87 [6] 65-78 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 152.5		 UConn (87.3%)
Toledo (12-11) 81, Akron (19-4) 91 [10] 74-92 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 168.8		 Akron (87.2%)
Richmond (13-10) 69, VCU (17-6) 77 [8] 70-87 ✓ MAE: 5.5
O/U: 155.5		 VCU (86.4%)
Nebraska #9 (20-2) 72, Michigan #2 (20-1) 75 [3] 66-83 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 157.0		 Michigan (83.4%)
George Washington (13-10) 76, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 79 [3] 71-85 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 167.5		 Saint Louis (79.1%)
Missouri (15-7) 64, Alabama (15-7) 90 [26] 77-92 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 167.5		 Alabama (78.8%)
Massachusetts (15-9) 84, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 86 [2] 72-87 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 164.8		 Miami (OH) (77.5%)
Syracuse (13-10) 68, NC State (17-6) 88 [20] 66-72 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 151.2		 NC State (77.2%)
Georgia Tech (11-12) 65, Virginia Tech (16-7) 71 [6] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 154.8		 Virginia Tech (75.7%)
Dayton (15-8) 76, Rhode Island (13-9) 81 [5] 62-68 ✗ MAE: 13.6
BET UNDER 138.5		 Dayton (75.6%)
Arizona State (12-11) 76, UCF (17-5) 79 [3] 73-89 ✓ MAE: 6.3
O/U: 161.5		 UCF (75.5%)
Bowling Green (14-9) 78, Buffalo (14-9) 89 [11] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET OVER 149.8		 Bowling Green (74.5%)
Kansas State (10-12) 54, West Virginia (14-8) 59 [5] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 15.5
BET UNDER 146.2		 West Virginia (74.1%)
Nicholls (10-13) 62, New Orleans (11-13) 80 [18] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 14.5
BET UNDER 156.8		 Nicholls (73.8%)
East Texas A&M (8-15) 61, Lamar (12-11) 82 [21] 61-75 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 140.8		 Lamar (72.4%)
Kentucky (16-7) 55, Vanderbilt #15 (19-3) 80 [25] 68-82 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 155.0		 Vanderbilt (72.0%)
Ohio (13-11) 57, Kent State (17-6) 72 [15] 76-83 ✗ MAE: 14.8
BET UNDER 162.2		 Kent State (71.6%)
Rutgers (9-14) 79, Michigan State #10 (19-4) 88 [9] 75-69 ✗ MAE: 11.7
BET OVER 138.5		 Michigan State (70.3%)
Prairie View A&M (9-13) 60, Alabama A&M (12-10) 80 [20] 73-77 ✗ MAE: 11.9
O/U: 152.0		 Prairie View A&M (68.8%)
San José State (6-16) 58, Boise State (14-9) 89 [31] 79-73 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 141.8		 Boise State (68.7%)
Indiana State (10-14) 74, UIC (13-11) 76 [2] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 147.5		 UIC (63.8%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 66, McNeese (18-5) 76 [10] 71-68 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 139.2		 McNeese (63.6%)
Grand Canyon (15-7) 60, Nevada (16-7) 66 [6] 67-69 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 142.8		 Nevada (62.7%)
Wake Forest (11-11) 76, Pittsburgh (9-14) 80 [4] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 150.5		 Pittsburgh (61.4%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 97, Virginia #18 (19-3) 100 [3] 73-68 ✗ MAE: 28.0
BET UNDER 145.2		 Virginia (60.1%)
Alabama State (7-15) 64, Texas Southern (6-14) 96 [32] 69-77 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 155.2		 Texas Southern (58.1%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 65, Northern Illinois (7-14) 85 [20] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET UNDER 147.2		 Northern Illinois (54.5%)
UNLV (10-12) 61, New Mexico (18-5) 89 [28] 72-68 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 155.8		 New Mexico (54.0%)
Creighton (12-11) 62, Marquette (8-15) 86 [24] 71-73 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 155.2		 Marquette (52.2%) DOG
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 65, Central Michigan (7-16) 100 [35] 71-76 ✗ MAE: 15.2
BET OVER 139.8		 Central Michigan (52.1%) DOG
Oklahoma (11-12) 79, Arkansas #21 (16-6) 83 [4] 81-86 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 167.2		 Oklahoma (51.8%) DOG
Incarnate Word (10-13) 75, Houston Christian (8-15) 81 [6] 70-74 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 140.8		 Houston Christian (51.7%) DOG
Purdue #12 (18-4) 67, Indiana (15-8) 72 [5] 77-73 ✓ MAE: 5.6
O/U: 150.8		 Purdue (50.9%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 64, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 85 [21] 67-73 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET UNDER 143.8		 Loyola Chicago (50.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
35
Final results
35
Correct picks
28
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
35
Avg Confidence
73.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0907
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
33
ML Win Rate
72.7%
ML Profit
$-204
ML ROI
-6.2%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
6
Wins
4
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$278
ROI
46.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$158
ROI
17.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-150
ROI
-37.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
21
ATS Wins
7
ATS Losses
14
ATS Win Rate
33.3%
Spread Profit
$-764
Spread ROI
-36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-19.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
35
Avg Confidence
59.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2801
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
26
O/U Wins
16
O/U Losses
10
O/U Win Rate
61.5%
O/U Profit
$454
O/U ROI
17.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+9.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
4
Completed
4
Covered
2
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-18
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-18
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Arizona State 76 @ UCF 79 UCF (75.5%) UCF -6.5 +9.1 +15.6 +3.0 FAILED
East Texas A&M 61 @ Lamar 82 Lamar (72.4%) Lamar -6.2 +8.4 +14.7 +21.0 COVERED
Kentucky 55 @ Vanderbilt #15 80 Vanderbilt (72.0%) Vanderbilt -6.0 +7.9 +13.9 +25.0 COVERED
New Orleans 80 @ Nicholls 62 Nicholls (73.8%) Nicholls -4.2 +6.8 +11.1 -18.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
6
Wins
4
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$278
ROI
46.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Western Michigan 65, Northern Illinois 85 [20] Northern Illinois 54.5% +107 +8.3% WIN
Creighton 62, Marquette 86 [24] Marquette 52.2% +105 +5.5% WIN
Eastern Michigan 65, Central Michigan 100 [35] Central Michigan 52.1% +150 +13.5% WIN
Oklahoma 79, Arkansas 83 [4] Oklahoma 51.8% +130 +9.8% LOSS
Incarnate Word 75, Houston Christian 81 [6] Houston Christian 51.7% +115 +6.9% WIN
Loyola Chicago 64, Saint Joseph's 85 [21] Loyola Chicago 50.7% +145 +11.4% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
9
Wins
5
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
55.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$158
ROI
17.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Prairie View A&M 60, Alabama A&M 80 [20] Prairie View A&M 68.8% -132 +14.0% LOSS
Eastern Michigan 65, Central Michigan 100 [35] Central Michigan 52.1% +150 +13.5% WIN
Nicholls 62, New Orleans 80 [18] Nicholls 73.8% -182 +11.5% LOSS
Loyola Chicago 64, Saint Joseph's 85 [21] Loyola Chicago 50.7% +145 +11.4% LOSS
Oklahoma 79, Arkansas 83 [4] Oklahoma 51.8% +130 +9.8% LOSS
Western Michigan 65, Northern Illinois 85 [20] Northern Illinois 54.5% +107 +8.3% WIN
Wake Forest 76, Pittsburgh 80 [4] Pittsburgh 61.4% -125 +8.1% WIN
Incarnate Word 75, Houston Christian 81 [6] Houston Christian 51.7% +115 +6.9% WIN
Creighton 62, Marquette 86 [24] Marquette 52.2% +105 +5.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-150
ROI
-37.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Prairie View A&M 60, Alabama A&M 80 [20] Prairie View A&M 68.8% -132 +14.0% LOSS
Eastern Michigan 65, Central Michigan 100 [35] Central Michigan 52.1% +150 +13.5% WIN
Nicholls 62, New Orleans 80 [18] Nicholls 73.8% -182 +11.5% LOSS
Loyola Chicago 64, Saint Joseph's 85 [21] Loyola Chicago 50.7% +145 +11.4% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan State @ Rutgers Rutgers 29.7% +950 +20.6% LOSS
McNeese @ SE Louisiana SE Louisiana 36.4% +575 +22.2% LOSS
Virginia @ Notre Dame Notre Dame 39.9% +390 +20.5% LOSS