Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-28
All Games Summary
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
20
Pending
0
Accuracy
62.3%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (53)
Mississippi Valley State (1-21) 69, Southern (9-13) 80 [11] 62-84 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 142.2		 Southern (91.8%)
Wyoming (13-10) 62, Utah State (19-3) 94 [32] 66-83 ✓ MAE: 7.4
O/U: 148.2		 Utah State (86.6%)
Butler (13-10) 70, St. John's #22 (17-5) 92 [22] 68-79 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 158.5		 St. John's (86.1%)
New Mexico State (11-11) 64, Delaware (6-16) 73 [9] 61-66 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 138.0		 New Mexico State (85.2%)
Holy Cross (8-16) 74, Colgate (14-10) 79 [5] 65-73 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 144.8		 Colgate (77.9%)
Minnesota (11-12) 63, Wisconsin (16-6) 67 [4] 67-72 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 146.5		 Wisconsin (77.4%)
Arkansas State (14-10) 71, Old Dominion (7-17) 75 [4] 77-85 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET OVER 159.2		 Arkansas State (77.2%)
San Francisco (14-11) 73, Santa Clara (20-5) 88 [15] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 150.5		 Santa Clara (76.9%)
Evansville (5-18) 78, Drake (12-12) 82 [4] 63-76 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 141.8		 Drake (76.9%)
USC (17-6) 72, Iowa (17-5) 73 [1] 65-82 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 141.8		 Iowa (76.6%)
Queens University (12-11) 90, Central Arkansas (13-10) 100 [10] 79-94 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET OVER 158.5		 Queens University (75.7%)
Davidson (13-9) 52, George Mason (20-3) 60 [8] 60-71 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 135.0		 George Mason (75.4%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 58, Robert Morris (15-10) 74 [16] 73-85 ✗ MAE: 13.2
O/U: 159.5		 Robert Morris (74.9%)
Stanford (14-9) 70, Miami (17-5) 79 [9] 73-82 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 147.8		 Miami (74.6%)
LSU (14-8) 66, Mississippi State (11-11) 80 [14] 75-80 ✗ MAE: 9.5
O/U: 154.8		 LSU (73.5%)
Florida International (11-11) 74, Jacksonville State (11-10) 78 [4] 71-77 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 148.2		 Florida International (73.4%)
North Texas (12-11) 66, Tulsa (20-3) 82 [16] 61-74 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 141.5		 Tulsa (73.3%)
Portland (11-14) 51, Pacific (15-10) 74 [23] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 9.5
O/U: 142.2		 Pacific (73.1%)
Loyola Marymount (12-13) 69, Oregon State (13-12) 72 [3] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 141.8		 Loyola Marymount (72.1%)
Xavier (12-11) 68, Seton Hall (16-7) 86 [18] 65-76 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 145.2		 Seton Hall (72.1%)
DePaul (12-11) 61, Georgetown (13-10) 70 [9] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 139.2		 Georgetown (71.7%)
UTSA (4-18) 73, UAB (14-8) 83 [10] 80-75 ✓ MAE: 2.8
O/U: 155.0		 UAB (69.8%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 69, Kennesaw State (14-8) 72 [3] 75-82 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 160.2		 Kennesaw State (68.7%)
La Salle (7-16) 58, Fordham (12-11) 64 [6] 59-74 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET UNDER 136.0		 Fordham (68.6%)
Colorado State (12-10) 50, San Diego State (16-6) 73 [23] 65-77 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 138.5		 San Diego State (67.9%)
Georgia (16-6) 85, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 86 [1] 77-78 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 159.5		 Georgia (67.4%) DOG
West Georgia (10-12) 74, Bellarmine (9-13) 77 [3] 79-86 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 151.5		 Bellarmine (66.8%)
Texas (14-9) 82, Auburn (14-8) 88 [6] 80-89 ✓ MAE: 1.6
BET OVER 155.5		 Auburn (66.6%)
Temple (14-8) 76, Charlotte (13-10) 80 [4] 69-79 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 139.5		 Temple (65.0%)
Murray State (17-7) 65, Illinois State (15-8) 70 [5] 73-80 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 159.2		 Murray State (64.9%)
Duquesne (13-10) 79, St. Bonaventure (13-10) 87 [8] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET OVER 150.5		 Duquesne (64.8%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 65, Oakland (14-11) 74 [9] 72-77 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 162.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (64.8%)
UTEP (8-15) 59, Louisiana Tech (12-10) 69 [10] 58-65 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 129.8		 UTEP (62.9%)
South Carolina (11-12) 48, Florida #17 (16-6) 95 [47] 80-74 ✗ MAE: 20.8
BET OVER 151.5		 Florida (61.7%)
Seattle U (15-9) 58, Washington State (11-14) 70 [12] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 142.2		 Washington State (61.7%)
Bucknell (8-16) 79, Lafayette (7-17) 81 [2] 65-75 ✗ MAE: 10.0
O/U: 139.2		 Lafayette (61.0%)
Missouri State (13-9) 71, Sam Houston (16-7) 80 [9] 70-79 ✗ MAE: 8.9
O/U: 148.2		 Missouri State (60.9%)
California (17-6) 61, Florida State (10-12) 63 [2] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET UNDER 158.0		 Florida State (60.5%)
Northern Iowa (14-9) 50, Southern Illinois (10-13) 65 [15] 63-65 ✓ MAE: 6.7
BET UNDER 131.0		 Southern Illinois (59.3%) DOG
Baylor (13-9) 57, Cincinnati (11-11) 67 [10] 70-78 ✗ MAE: 11.8
O/U: 146.0		 Cincinnati (58.7%)
Tulane (13-9) 83, South Florida (15-8) 97 [14] 79-72 ✗ MAE: 14.6
BET UNDER 158.8		 South Florida (58.6%)
TCU (13-9) 70, Houston #8 (20-2) 79 [9] 66-66 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 138.8		 Houston (57.9%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 77, Belmont (21-3) 78 [1] 79-72 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET OVER 145.5		 Belmont (56.9%)
East Carolina (7-15) 77, Rice (10-13) 83 [6] 67-74 ✗ MAE: 9.7
O/U: 140.5		 East Carolina (56.5%)
Denver (9-15) 32, Kansas City (4-20) 32 [0] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 44.5
BET UNDER 163.5		 Kansas City (56.2%) DOG
South Dakota State (11-13) 71, Omaha (12-12) 80 [9] 73-79 ✓ MAE: 1.1
O/U: 150.0		 Omaha (54.1%) DOG
Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 82, Austin Peay (16-6) 90 [8] 76-81 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 151.8		 Eastern Kentucky (53.8%) DOG
American University (13-11) 68, Loyola Maryland (9-15) 77 [9] 74-69 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 147.8		 American University (53.7%)
Lehigh (10-14) 64, Army (10-14) 67 [3] 71-76 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 147.8		 Army (53.0%) DOG
Boston University (9-15) 50, Navy (18-6) 58 [8] 64-69 ✗ MAE: 12.7
BET UNDER 138.2		 Boston University (52.1%) DOG
Pepperdine (6-18) 88, San Diego (10-15) 92 [4] 69-74 ✗ MAE: 18.9
BET UNDER 150.8		 Pepperdine (51.2%) DOG
Marshall (15-8) 68, Texas State (14-11) 72 [4] 75-80 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 148.0		 Texas State (51.0%) DOG
Oregon (8-14) 57, UCLA (16-7) 73 [16] 69-74 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET OVER 136.5		 Oregon (50.0%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
53
Final results
53
Correct picks
33
Incorrect picks
20
Pending
0
Accuracy
62.3%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
53
Avg Confidence
68.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1130
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
48
ML Win Rate
66.7%
ML Profit
$-158
ML ROI
-3.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
7
Wins
3
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-42
ROI
-6.0%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
13
Wins
5
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
38.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-305
ROI
-23.5%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-43
ROI
-21.4%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
38
ATS Wins
16
ATS Losses
22
ATS Win Rate
42.1%
Spread Profit
$-746
Spread ROI
-19.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-10.3%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
53
Avg Confidence
62.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1733
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
38
O/U Wins
22
O/U Losses
16
O/U Win Rate
57.9%
O/U Profit
$400
O/U ROI
10.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+5.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
0
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$182
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Central Arkansas 100 @ Queens University 90 Queens University (75.7%) Queens University -5.5 +9.0 +14.5 -10.0 FAILED
USC 72 @ Iowa 73 Iowa (76.6%) Iowa -9.5 +7.4 +16.9 +1.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
7
Wins
3
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-42
ROI
-6.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Dakota State 71, Omaha 80 [9] Omaha 54.1% +110 +8.4% WIN
Eastern Kentucky 82, Austin Peay 90 [8] Eastern Kentucky 53.8% +105 +7.0% LOSS
Lehigh 64, Army 67 [3] Army 53.0% +115 +8.3% WIN
Boston University 50, Navy 58 [8] Boston University 52.1% +115 +7.4% LOSS
Pepperdine 88, San Diego 92 [4] Pepperdine 51.2% +105 +4.4% LOSS
Marshall 68, Texas State 72 [4] Texas State 51.0% +133 +9.7% WIN
Oregon 57, UCLA 73 [16] Oregon 50.0% +149 +11.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
13
Wins
5
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
38.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-305
ROI
-23.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Oregon 57, UCLA 73 [16] Oregon 50.0% +149 +11.6% LOSS
DePaul 61, Georgetown 70 [9] Georgetown 71.7% -175 +10.3% WIN
Queens University 90, Central Arkansas 100 [10] Queens University 75.7% -218 +10.0% LOSS
Marshall 68, Texas State 72 [4] Texas State 51.0% +133 +9.7% WIN
Seattle U 58, Washington State 70 [12] Washington State 61.7% -125 +8.5% WIN
South Dakota State 71, Omaha 80 [9] Omaha 54.1% +110 +8.4% WIN
Florida International 74, Jacksonville State 78 [4] Florida International 73.4% -210 +8.3% LOSS
Lehigh 64, Army 67 [3] Army 53.0% +115 +8.3% WIN
Boston University 50, Navy 58 [8] Boston University 52.1% +115 +7.4% LOSS
Eastern Kentucky 82, Austin Peay 90 [8] Eastern Kentucky 53.8% +105 +7.0% LOSS
UTEP 59, Louisiana Tech 69 [10] UTEP 62.9% -140 +6.7% LOSS
Missouri State 71, Sam Houston 80 [9] Missouri State 60.9% -135 +5.6% LOSS
Duquesne 79, St. Bonaventure 87 [8] Duquesne 64.8% -160 +5.6% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-43
ROI
-21.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Oregon 57, UCLA 73 [16] Oregon 50.0% +149 +11.6% LOSS
DePaul 61, Georgetown 70 [9] Georgetown 71.7% -175 +10.3% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UAB @ UTSA UTSA 30.2% +650 +17.5% LOSS
Florida @ South Carolina South Carolina 38.3% +402 +19.2% LOSS
South Florida @ Tulane Tulane 41.4% +265 +15.1% LOSS