Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-29
All Games Summary
Total Picks
55
Final results
54
Correct picks
34
Incorrect picks
20
Pending
1
Accuracy
63.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
⏰ UPCOMING GAMES (1)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 0, UL Monroe (4-20) 0 [0] 81-78
O/U: 161.2		 Georgia Southern (65.2%)
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (54)
Colorado (13-10) 67, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 97 [30] 64-90 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 152.5		 Iowa State (91.3%)
Presbyterian (11-13) 81, High Point (21-4) 84 [3] 67-82 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 149.5		 High Point (87.9%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 50, UNC Asheville (11-13) 69 [19] 65-82 ✗ MAE: 13.9
BET UNDER 149.5		 UNC Asheville (87.7%)
Washington (12-11) 66, Illinois #5 (20-3) 75 [9] 69-84 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 153.5		 Illinois (86.5%)
East Tennessee State (17-7) 88, Western Carolina (8-14) 90 [2] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 145.8		 East Tennessee State (80.5%)
St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 80, North Dakota (13-12) 81 [1] 69-84 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 152.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (77.9%)
Troy (16-8) 64, James Madison (11-13) 73 [9] 70-83 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET OVER 148.8		 Troy (76.3%)
Little Rock (9-14) 63, Tennessee State (14-8) 70 [7] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 151.8		 Tennessee State (76.1%)
North Alabama (7-14) 64, Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 72 [8] 61-76 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 147.5		 Florida Gulf Coast (75.6%)
Penn State (10-12) 73, Northwestern (10-13) 94 [21] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 148.8		 Northwestern (75.1%)
Oral Roberts (5-19) 69, South Dakota (13-12) 77 [8] 73-81 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 154.5		 South Dakota (74.1%)
Portland State (15-6) 60, Montana (13-10) 64 [4] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 15.2
BET OVER 143.2		 Portland State (73.4%)
Southern Utah (8-15) 61, UT Arlington (14-7) 80 [19] 63-76 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 144.0		 UT Arlington (73.3%)
Le Moyne (11-12) 61, Long Island University (14-8) 83 [22] 70-79 ✓ MAE: 6.2
O/U: 148.2		 Long Island University (72.6%)
UMBC (13-8) 55, Vermont (14-9) 64 [9] 65-79 ✗ MAE: 12.1
O/U: 141.5		 Vermont (72.5%)
UAlbany (7-16) 68, NJIT (11-12) 77 [9] 65-78 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 139.5		 UAlbany (72.3%)
UNC Greensboro (9-15) 77, Mercer (15-8) 95 [18] 74-77 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET UNDER 158.5		 Mercer (72.2%)
Campbell (10-13) 69, Stony Brook (14-9) 81 [12] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 152.8		 Campbell (72.0%)
Samford (11-12) 73, Furman (16-8) 78 [5] 73-86 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 149.5		 Furman (71.2%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 70, Utah Tech (13-11) 76 [6] 68-80 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 145.5		 Abilene Christian (70.3%)
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 48, South Alabama (16-7) 53 [5] 62-75 ✗ MAE: 18.0
BET UNDER 140.0		 South Alabama (68.6%)
Hofstra (14-9) 64, Charleston (15-8) 66 [2] 63-74 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 148.5		 Hofstra (68.3%)
UC San Diego (15-8) 48, UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 62 [14] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 17.7
O/U: 145.5		 UC San Diego (68.0%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 55, Wofford (16-8) 81 [26] 72-75 ✗ MAE: 14.7
BET UNDER 150.8		 Chattanooga (67.2%)
North Florida (5-18) 77, Stetson (8-15) 84 [7] 76-83 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 165.8		 North Florida (67.2%) DOG
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 81, Monmouth (11-12) 83 [2] 64-78 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 145.0		 Monmouth (66.6%)
New Haven (10-12) 51, Mercyhurst (11-12) 70 [19] 56-64 ✓ MAE: 5.4
O/U: 122.5		 Mercyhurst (66.3%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 75, Radford (13-12) 84 [9] 77-84 ✓ MAE: 7.9
O/U: 162.5		 Charleston Southern (65.6%) DOG
Hawai'i (16-5) 76, UC Irvine (15-7) 87 [11] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 142.5		 UC Irvine (65.0%)
Hampton (10-13) 51, Drexel (12-11) 58 [7] 61-69 ✗ MAE: 10.4
O/U: 128.0		 Drexel (64.6%)
Idaho (13-9) 83, Northern Colorado (13-10) 91 [8] 78-85 ✓ MAE: 5.3
BET OVER 155.8		 Northern Colorado (63.9%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 65, Memphis (10-11) 92 [27] 67-79 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 153.0		 Memphis (63.4%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 61, New Hampshire (8-13) 66 [5] 72-73 ✗ MAE: 8.8
O/U: 146.5		 New Hampshire (62.9%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 79, Cal Poly (9-14) 104 [25] 73-80 ✗ MAE: 16.1
BET UNDER 160.5		 Cal State Bakersfield (62.6%) DOG
SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 65, Morehead State (12-11) 67 [2] 66-72 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 130.5		 Morehead State (60.7%)
UC Davis (13-9) 78, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 94 [16] 73-81 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 162.8		 Cal State Northridge (60.6%)
Eastern Washington (5-17) 86, Northern Arizona (8-15) 92 [6] 72-78 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET OVER 143.8		 Northern Arizona (59.8%) DOG
Longwood (13-12) 60, South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 65 [5] 68-76 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET UNDER 147.5		 South Carolina Upstate (59.1%) DOG
Long Beach State (8-15) 61, UC Riverside (8-15) 71 [10] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 145.8		 UC Riverside (58.2%) DOG
Southern Miss (12-13) 63, App State (16-9) 70 [7] 67-71 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 134.5		 Southern Miss (57.9%) DOG
Towson (13-11) 73, UNC Wilmington (19-3) 82 [9] 62-66 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 135.5		 Towson (57.5%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 57, Stonehill (9-14) 58 [1] 61-70 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 131.2		 Stonehill (56.8%)
VMI (6-18) 56, The Citadel (8-15) 80 [24] 70-75 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 142.8		 The Citadel (56.2%)
William & Mary (14-8) 76, Elon (13-10) 79 [3] 77-83 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 169.2		 Elon (55.5%) DOG
Montana State (13-10) 80, Sacramento State (9-13) 83 [3] 75-75 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 153.5		 Montana State (55.1%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 60, Lindenwood (14-10) 73 [13] 78-70 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 150.8		 Lindenwood (53.5%)
Lipscomb (15-9) 65, Jacksonville (9-14) 70 [5] 78-73 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 142.0		 Lipscomb (53.1%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 74, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 78 [4] 68-67 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 142.5		 Southeast Missouri State (52.7%)
Georgia State (9-15) 72, Louisiana (8-16) 82 [10] 63-70 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 129.5		 Louisiana (52.2%) DOG
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 68, UT Martin (18-5) 76 [8] 70-62 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 128.5		 UT Martin (51.9%)
Tarleton State (11-11) 55, Utah Valley (16-6) 83 [28] 77-79 ✗ MAE: 15.1
O/U: 154.5		 Tarleton State (51.4%) DOG
Bryant (7-15) 60, Binghamton (5-18) 63 [3] 68-71 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 130.5		 Binghamton (51.3%) DOG
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 65, Liberty (19-3) 81 [16] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 136.8		 Middle Tennessee (51.1%) DOG
Wagner (7-13) 55, Central Connecticut (11-10) 62 [7] 64-68 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 136.5		 Wagner (51.0%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
55
Final results
54
Correct picks
34
Incorrect picks
20
Pending
1
Accuracy
63.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
68.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1256
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
40
ML Win Rate
65.0%
ML Profit
$106
ML ROI
2.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-95
ROI
-13.6%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
16
Wins
8
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-208
ROI
-13.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
1
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
16.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-413
ROI
-68.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
49
ATS Wins
28
ATS Losses
21
ATS Win Rate
57.1%
Spread Profit
$445
Spread ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
65.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1572
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
42
O/U Wins
27
O/U Losses
15
O/U Win Rate
64.3%
O/U Profit
$954
O/U ROI
22.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+11.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
4
Completed
4
Covered
1
Failed
3
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-209
ROI
-52.3%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
75.0%
O/U Profit
$173
O/U ROI
43.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+22.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Utah Tech 76 @ Abilene Christian 70 Abilene Christian (70.3%) Abilene Christian -3.2 +9.2 +12.5 -6.0 FAILED
Samford 73 @ Furman 78 Furman (71.2%) Furman -5.2 +8.0 +13.3 +5.0 FAILED
NJIT 77 @ UAlbany 68 UAlbany (72.3%) UAlbany -5.5 +7.1 +12.6 -9.0 FAILED
Penn State 73 @ Northwestern 94 Northwestern (75.1%) Northwestern -7.5 +6.7 +14.2 +21.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-95
ROI
-13.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Eastern Washington 86, Northern Arizona 92 [6] Northern Arizona 59.8% N/A N/A WIN
William & Mary 76, Elon 79 [3] Elon 55.5% N/A N/A WIN
Georgia State 72, Louisiana 82 [10] Louisiana 52.2% +105 +5.5% WIN
Tarleton State 55, Utah Valley 83 [28] Tarleton State 51.4% +150 +12.8% LOSS
Bryant 60, Binghamton 63 [3] Binghamton 51.3% +100 +3.5% WIN
Middle Tennessee 65, Liberty 81 [16] Middle Tennessee 51.1% +110 +5.4% LOSS
Wagner 55, Central Connecticut 62 [7] Wagner 51.0% +105 +4.3% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
16
Wins
8
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-208
ROI
-13.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Hawai'i 76, UC Irvine 87 [11] UC Irvine 65.0% -115 +13.9% WIN
North Florida 77, Stetson 84 [7] North Florida 67.2% -125 +13.9% LOSS
Abilene Christian 70, Utah Tech 76 [6] Abilene Christian 70.3% -145 +13.2% LOSS
Tarleton State 55, Utah Valley 83 [28] Tarleton State 51.4% +150 +12.8% LOSS
Portland State 60, Montana 64 [4] Portland State 73.4% -175 +12.0% LOSS
Charleston Southern 75, Radford 84 [9] Charleston Southern 65.6% -130 +11.3% LOSS
Cal State Bakersfield 79, Cal Poly 104 [25] Cal State Bakersfield 62.6% -125 +9.3% LOSS
Long Beach State 61, UC Riverside 71 [10] UC Riverside 58.2% -107 +8.7% WIN
Little Rock 63, Tennessee State 70 [7] Tennessee State 76.1% -235 +8.7% WIN
Florida Atlantic 65, Memphis 92 [27] Memphis 63.4% -133 +8.4% WIN
Oral Roberts 69, South Dakota 77 [8] South Dakota 74.1% -225 +7.7% WIN
SIU Edwardsville 65, Morehead State 67 [2] Morehead State 60.7% -127 +6.9% WIN
Southern Miss 63, App State 70 [7] Southern Miss 57.9% -115 +6.8% LOSS
Idaho 83, Northern Colorado 91 [8] Northern Colorado 63.9% -150 +5.9% WIN
Georgia State 72, Louisiana 82 [10] Louisiana 52.2% +105 +5.5% WIN
Middle Tennessee 65, Liberty 81 [16] Middle Tennessee 51.1% +110 +5.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
1
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
16.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-413
ROI
-68.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Hawai'i 76, UC Irvine 87 [11] UC Irvine 65.0% -115 +13.9% WIN
North Florida 77, Stetson 84 [7] North Florida 67.2% -125 +13.9% LOSS
Abilene Christian 70, Utah Tech 76 [6] Abilene Christian 70.3% -145 +13.2% LOSS
Tarleton State 55, Utah Valley 83 [28] Tarleton State 51.4% +150 +12.8% LOSS
Portland State 60, Montana 64 [4] Portland State 73.4% -175 +12.0% LOSS
Charleston Southern 75, Radford 84 [9] Charleston Southern 65.6% -130 +11.3% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
1
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$85
ROI
42.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe UL Monroe 34.8% +500 +18.9% PENDING
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth North Carolina A&T 33.4% +340 +11.7% LOSS
Lipscomb @ Jacksonville Jacksonville 46.9% +185 +13.3% WIN