Test Predictions Recap
2026-01-30
All Games Summary
Total Picks
23
Final results
23
Correct picks
16
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (23)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 75, VCU (17-6) 89 [14] 65-82 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 150.8		 VCU (92.9%)
Dartmouth (10-10) 68, Yale (16-4) 83 [15] 70-88 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 155.2		 Yale (87.3%)
Dayton (15-8) 71, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 102 [31] 70-85 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET OVER 152.2		 Saint Louis (78.9%)
Princeton (8-14) 64, Cornell (10-10) 87 [23] 75-88 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET OVER 159.5		 Cornell (78.2%)
Kent State (17-6) 52, Akron (19-4) 69 [17] 76-91 ✗ MAE: 23.1
O/U: 166.8		 Akron (78.2%)
IU Indianapolis (6-18) 76, Youngstown State (12-12) 85 [9] 70-83 ✓ MAE: 4.4
O/U: 153.8		 Youngstown State (76.8%)
Quinnipiac (15-9) 91, Sacred Heart (10-14) 98 [7] 69-80 ✗ MAE: 20.0
BET UNDER 156.5		 Quinnipiac (75.6%)
Providence (10-13) 73, Villanova (17-5) 87 [14] 69-78 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 157.5		 Villanova (75.2%)
UNLV (10-12) 76, Nevada (16-7) 89 [13] 63-72 ✗ MAE: 15.0
BET UNDER 145.5		 Nevada (74.3%)
Rice (10-13) 70, Charlotte (13-10) 80 [10] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 0.5
BET OVER 141.8		 Charlotte (72.0%)
Green Bay (13-12) 82, Cleveland State (10-14) 89 [7] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 10.5
O/U: 150.5		 Green Bay (70.2%)
Rider (3-18) 90, Manhattan (9-15) 95 [5] 62-75 ✗ MAE: 24.2
BET UNDER 146.5		 Manhattan (69.6%)
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 58, Saint Peter's (12-8) 66 [8] 60-71 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 139.2		 Saint Peter's (69.4%)
Canisius (8-16) 86, Marist (15-7) 88 [2] 64-64 ✗ MAE: 23.1
BET UNDER 130.0		 Marist (68.8%)
Pennsylvania (10-10) 67, Columbia (14-7) 72 [5] 76-83 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET OVER 154.0		 Columbia (68.4%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 76, Georgia Southern (14-11) 79 [3] 82-76 ✓ MAE: 1.3
BET UNDER 161.5		 Georgia Southern (66.1%)
Niagara (6-17) 79, Siena (16-7) 82 [3] 67-64 ✗ MAE: 15.1
BET OVER 128.5		 Siena (64.7%)
Iona (14-9) 70, Fairfield (14-10) 71 [1] 72-79 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET OVER 146.8		 Iona (62.8%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 77, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 90 [13] 82-76 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 161.5		 Northern Kentucky (58.9%)
Boise State (14-9) 69, Grand Canyon (15-7) 86 [17] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 140.0		 Grand Canyon (57.0%)
Brown (7-13) 59, Harvard (12-9) 69 [10] 60-68 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 132.5		 Brown (53.3%) DOG
Milwaukee (9-16) 69, Wright State (15-9) 76 [7] 74-80 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 151.2		 Milwaukee (52.9%) DOG
Michigan State #10 (19-4) 71, Michigan #2 (20-1) 83 [12] 71-76 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 150.2		 Michigan State (52.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
23
Final results
23
Correct picks
16
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
74.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1264
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
22
ML Win Rate
77.3%
ML Profit
$72
ML ROI
3.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-159
ROI
-53.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
14
ATS Wins
10
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
71.4%
Spread Profit
$509
Spread ROI
36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+19.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
58.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2850
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
15
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
40.0%
O/U Profit
$-355
O/U ROI
-23.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-12.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Brown 59, Harvard 69 [10] Brown 53.3% +122 +10.0% LOSS
Milwaukee 69, Wright State 76 [7] Milwaukee 52.9% +125 +10.0% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-159
ROI
-53.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Brown 59, Harvard 69 [10] Brown 53.3% +122 +10.0% LOSS
Milwaukee 69, Wright State 76 [7] Milwaukee 52.9% +125 +10.0% LOSS
Princeton 64, Cornell 87 [23] Cornell 78.2% -245 +9.8% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Brown 59, Harvard 69 [10] Brown 53.3% +122 +10.0% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Georgia Southern @ UL Monroe UL Monroe 33.9% +550 +19.2% LOSS
Marist @ Canisius Canisius 31.2% +550 +16.5% LOSS
Siena @ Niagara Niagara 35.3% +340 +13.7% LOSS