Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-01
All Games Summary
Total Picks
25
Final results
25
Correct picks
16
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
64.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (25)
Kansas City (4-20) 64, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 99 [35] 63-83 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 149.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (91.6%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 75, East Carolina (7-15) 76 [1] 66-79 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 153.2		 Florida Atlantic (79.5%)
Memphis (10-11) 76, Tulane (13-9) 78 [2] 61-74 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 151.0		 Memphis (75.2%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 88, Cleveland State (10-14) 90 [2] 73-83 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 161.2		 Milwaukee (74.6%)
Chattanooga (9-14) 70, Furman (16-8) 75 [5] 68-83 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 145.5		 Furman (72.8%)
Wichita State (14-9) 83, Tulsa (20-3) 93 [10] 72-83 ✗ MAE: 10.6
O/U: 153.0		 Tulsa (72.0%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 58, Merrimack (14-9) 75 [17] 62-74 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 146.5		 Merrimack (71.9%)
Manhattan (9-15) 65, Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 72 [7] 66-77 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 147.0		 Mount St. Mary's (71.3%)
Rhode Island (13-9) 61, Duquesne (13-10) 76 [15] 70-75 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 145.8		 Duquesne (70.4%)
Maryland (8-13) 63, Purdue #12 (18-4) 93 [30] 75-70 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 148.5		 Purdue (69.8%)
Niagara (6-17) 46, Marist (15-7) 58 [12] 63-62 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 129.0		 Marist (66.8%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 65, Oakland (14-11) 76 [11] 80-84 ✗ MAE: 11.7
BET UNDER 166.8		 Oakland (66.2%)
Alabama (15-7) 77, Florida #17 (16-6) 100 [23] 76-89 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 178.0		 Florida (66.1%)
Kansas State (10-12) 61, Iowa State #7 (20-2) 95 [34] 76-73 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET UNDER 154.5		 Iowa State (65.2%)
Saint Peter's (12-8) 78, Rider (3-18) 81 [3] 63-64 ✗ MAE: 16.2
BET UNDER 136.0		 Saint Peter's (65.1%)
Canisius (8-16) 63, Siena (16-7) 78 [15] 67-65 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 135.0		 Siena (64.6%)
Oregon (8-14) 66, Iowa (17-5) 84 [18] 75-69 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 134.0		 Iowa (63.4%)
UL Monroe (4-20) 79, Coastal Carolina (14-11) 83 [4] 80-74 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET OVER 145.5		 Coastal Carolina (63.0%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 74, Samford (11-12) 88 [14] 77-82 ✗ MAE: 9.4
BET OVER 154.2		 Western Carolina (57.4%)
Nebraska #9 (20-2) 69, Illinois #5 (20-3) 78 [9] 62-74 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 154.0		 Nebraska (56.8%)
Wofford (16-8) 72, East Tennessee State (17-7) 86 [14] 68-75 ✗ MAE: 10.5
BET UNDER 146.5		 Wofford (55.3%) DOG
Minnesota (11-12) 75, Penn State (10-12) 77 [2] 67-70 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 142.5		 Penn State (53.8%) DOG
TCU (13-9) 61, Colorado (13-10) 87 [26] 75-79 ✗ MAE: 11.2
O/U: 153.2		 Colorado (52.3%) DOG
Fairfield (14-10) 65, Quinnipiac (15-9) 72 [7] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 154.5		 Fairfield (51.2%) DOG
Green Bay (13-12) 75, Wright State (15-9) 83 [8] 73-76 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET OVER 144.0		 Green Bay (50.9%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
25
Final results
25
Correct picks
16
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
64.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
25
Avg Confidence
70.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1367
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
22
ML Win Rate
68.2%
ML Profit
$-157
ML ROI
-7.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-95
ROI
-23.8%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-21
ROI
-5.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
12
ATS Wins
6
ATS Losses
6
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$-55
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
25
Avg Confidence
58.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1420
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
21
O/U Wins
14
O/U Losses
7
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$573
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Chattanooga 70 @ Furman 75 Furman (72.8%) Furman -7.5 +7.4 +14.9 +5.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-95
ROI
-23.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Wofford 72, East Tennessee State 86 [14] Wofford 55.3% +114 +10.5% LOSS
TCU 61, Colorado 87 [26] Colorado 52.3% +105 +5.5% WIN
Fairfield 65, Quinnipiac 72 [7] Fairfield 51.2% N/A N/A LOSS
Green Bay 75, Wright State 83 [8] Green Bay 50.9% +150 +12.3% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-21
ROI
-5.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Rhode Island 61, Duquesne 76 [15] Duquesne 70.4% -135 +15.2% WIN
Green Bay 75, Wright State 83 [8] Green Bay 50.9% +150 +12.3% LOSS
Wofford 72, East Tennessee State 86 [14] Wofford 55.3% +114 +10.5% LOSS
TCU 61, Colorado 87 [26] Colorado 52.3% +105 +5.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-126
ROI
-42.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Rhode Island 61, Duquesne 76 [15] Duquesne 70.4% -135 +15.2% WIN
Green Bay 75, Wright State 83 [8] Green Bay 50.9% +150 +12.3% LOSS
Wofford 72, East Tennessee State 86 [14] Wofford 55.3% +114 +10.5% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Purdue @ Maryland Maryland 30.2% +725 +18.6% LOSS
Iowa State @ Kansas State Kansas State 34.8% +467 +18.0% LOSS
Iowa @ Oregon Oregon 36.6% +362 +15.9% LOSS