Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-02
All Games Summary
Total Picks
18
Final results
18
Correct picks
11
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
61.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (18)
Syracuse (13-10) 77, North Carolina #14 (18-4) 87 [10] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 158.0		 North Carolina (83.1%)
Houston Christian (8-15) 57, UT Rio Grande Valley (12-11) 74 [17] 62-78 ✓ MAE: 4.4
O/U: 141.0		 UT Rio Grande Valley (73.6%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (12-11) 69, Incarnate Word (10-13) 71 [2] 66-73 ✓ MAE: 4.8
O/U: 139.0		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (73.4%)
Idaho State (10-13) 65, Portland State (15-6) 88 [23] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 136.2		 Portland State (73.1%)
Tennessee State (14-8) 85, Tennessee Tech (9-14) 90 [5] 71-80 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 153.2		 Tennessee State (73.0%)
SE Louisiana (6-17) 54, Lamar (12-11) 73 [19] 61-68 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 133.0		 Lamar (70.7%)
Florida A&M (7-12) 66, Alabama State (7-15) 79 [13] 68-81 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET OVER 140.0		 Alabama State (69.7%)
Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 61, Kansas #11 (17-5) 64 [3] 68-81 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 155.8		 Texas Tech (66.6%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 63, North Carolina Central (8-12) 65 [2] 59-70 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 134.5		 North Carolina Central (65.5%)
Coppin State (3-21) 53, Howard (14-9) 72 [19] 73-67 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 146.5		 Howard (64.6%)
Alcorn State (4-17) 50, Grambling (10-11) 74 [24] 65-67 ✗ MAE: 13.3
BET UNDER 143.8		 Grambling (59.6%)
Jackson State (6-16) 91, Southern (9-13) 96 [5] 77-72 ✗ MAE: 19.0
BET UNDER 152.5		 Southern (58.5%)
Weber State (11-12) 90, Sacramento State (9-13) 104 [14] 77-83 ✗ MAE: 17.2
BET UNDER 162.0		 Sacramento State (57.9%)
Northwestern State (6-16) 58, Nicholls (10-13) 61 [3] 67-74 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 147.2		 Northwestern State (54.4%) DOG
Alabama A&M (12-10) 62, Bethune-Cookman (11-11) 80 [18] 68-74 ✗ MAE: 12.2
O/U: 142.0		 Alabama A&M (54.3%) DOG
East Texas A&M (8-15) 85, New Orleans (11-13) 94 [9] 72-76 ✗ MAE: 15.2
BET UNDER 151.5		 East Texas A&M (53.5%) DOG
McNeese (18-5) 60, Stephen F. Austin (20-3) 67 [7] 64-72 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 142.5		 Stephen F. Austin (52.5%) DOG
Holy Cross (8-16) 64, Boston University (9-15) 72 [8] 67-71 ✓ MAE: 6.2
O/U: 139.0		 Holy Cross (51.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
18
Final results
18
Correct picks
11
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
61.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
18
Avg Confidence
65.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0631
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
17
ML Win Rate
58.8%
ML Profit
$-215
ML ROI
-12.6%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-185
ROI
-46.2%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-231
ROI
-28.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
13
ATS Wins
5
ATS Losses
8
ATS Win Rate
38.5%
Spread Profit
$-346
Spread ROI
-26.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-13.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
18
Avg Confidence
66.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2718
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
14
O/U Wins
10
O/U Losses
4
O/U Win Rate
71.4%
O/U Profit
$509
O/U ROI
36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+19.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Houston Christian 57 @ UT Rio Grande Valley 74 UT Rio Grande Valley (73.6%) UT Rio Grande Valley -9.0 +6.2 +15.2 +17.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-185
ROI
-46.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Alabama A&M 62, Bethune-Cookman 80 [18] Alabama A&M 54.3% +105 +7.6% LOSS
East Texas A&M 85, New Orleans 94 [9] East Texas A&M 53.5% +100 +5.6% LOSS
McNeese 60, Stephen F. Austin 67 [7] Stephen F. Austin 52.5% +115 +7.8% WIN
Holy Cross 64, Boston University 72 [8] Holy Cross 51.3% +110 +5.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-231
ROI
-28.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Florida A&M 66, Alabama State 79 [13] Alabama State 69.7% -170 +9.0% WIN
Weber State 90, Sacramento State 104 [14] Sacramento State 57.9% -105 +8.9% WIN
McNeese 60, Stephen F. Austin 67 [7] Stephen F. Austin 52.5% +115 +7.8% WIN
Alabama A&M 62, Bethune-Cookman 80 [18] Alabama A&M 54.3% +105 +7.6% LOSS
East Texas A&M 85, New Orleans 94 [9] East Texas A&M 53.5% +100 +5.6% LOSS
Holy Cross 64, Boston University 72 [8] Holy Cross 51.3% +110 +5.6% LOSS
Northwestern State 58, Nicholls 61 [3] Northwestern State 54.4% -105 +5.4% LOSS
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 69, Incarnate Word 71 [2] Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73.4% -240 +5.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$160
ROI
53.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Howard @ Coppin State Coppin State 35.4% +750 +24.2% LOSS
Tennessee Tech @ Tennessee State Tennessee Tech 27.0% +360 +6.3% WIN
Houston Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley Houston Christian 26.4% +345 +5.0% LOSS