Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-03
All Games Summary
Total Picks
31
Final results
31
Correct picks
26
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
83.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (31)
Boston College (9-13) 49, Duke #4 (21-1) 67 [18] 61-80 ✗ MAE: 12.2
O/U: 141.2		 Duke (95.0%)
Air Force (3-19) 57, Grand Canyon (15-7) 81 [24] 50-78 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 137.0		 Grand Canyon (94.6%)
Xavier (12-11) 60, UConn #3 (22-1) 92 [32] 59-82 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 147.8		 UConn (90.7%)
Rutgers (9-14) 66, UCLA (16-7) 98 [32] 60-78 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 142.8		 UCLA (87.5%)
South Carolina (11-12) 75, Texas (14-9) 84 [9] 73-83 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET OVER 149.8		 Texas (87.2%)
Ole Miss (11-11) 66, Tennessee #25 (16-6) 84 [18] 61-73 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 139.5		 Tennessee (87.0%)
Pittsburgh (9-14) 47, Virginia #18 (19-3) 67 [20] 67-76 ✗ MAE: 14.4
O/U: 142.5		 Virginia (86.9%)
Wyoming (13-10) 63, San Diego State (16-6) 72 [9] 69-82 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 142.2		 San Diego State (83.8%)
Ball State (7-15) 52, Bowling Green (14-9) 77 [25] 63-78 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 137.8		 Bowling Green (80.2%)
Central Michigan (7-16) 89, Massachusetts (15-9) 95 [6] 71-83 ✗ MAE: 15.0
O/U: 152.5		 Massachusetts (77.4%)
Western Michigan (8-14) 71, Ohio (13-11) 91 [20] 70-81 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 155.5		 Ohio (76.2%)
Valparaiso (11-12) 65, Bradley (16-8) 72 [7] 66-78 ✓ MAE: 3.7
O/U: 144.5		 Bradley (75.8%)
Drake (12-12) 90, Belmont (21-3) 103 [13] 71-80 ✗ MAE: 20.9
BET UNDER 154.8		 Belmont (75.7%)
Illinois State (15-8) 50, Southern Illinois (10-13) 54 [4] 62-78 ✗ MAE: 17.9
O/U: 141.2		 Illinois State (75.4%)
UIC (13-11) 74, Murray State (17-7) 81 [7] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 157.8		 Murray State (75.1%)
Nevada (16-7) 87, Boise State (14-9) 91 [4] 67-73 ✗ MAE: 19.2
BET UNDER 141.5		 Boise State (75.0%)
St. Bonaventure (13-10) 70, Dayton (15-8) 72 [2] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET OVER 144.5		 Dayton (75.0%)
Lindenwood (14-10) 72, SIU Edwardsville (15-9) 78 [6] 70-74 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 140.0		 Lindenwood (72.6%)
Little Rock (9-14) 52, UT Martin (18-5) 55 [3] 62-71 ✗ MAE: 13.2
BET UNDER 138.8		 UT Martin (71.2%)
La Salle (7-16) 61, Loyola Chicago (6-18) 71 [10] 63-76 ✓ MAE: 3.2
O/U: 139.5		 Loyola Chicago (70.8%)
Davidson (13-9) 82, Saint Louis #19 (22-1) 91 [9] 81-77 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 151.2		 Saint Louis (66.7%)
Eastern Michigan (9-14) 64, Akron (19-4) 66 [2] 80-78 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET OVER 153.2		 Akron (63.7%)
DePaul (12-11) 56, St. John's #22 (17-5) 68 [12] 80-75 ✗ MAE: 15.3
BET OVER 145.2		 St. John's (63.2%)
Fordham (12-11) 59, VCU (17-6) 63 [4] 74-67 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 146.8		 VCU (62.0%)
Canisius (8-16) 56, Niagara (6-17) 65 [9] 64-71 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 129.2		 Niagara (58.0%)
Indiana (15-8) 75, USC (17-6) 81 [6] 74-82 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET OVER 153.0		 USC (56.5%) DOG
Toledo (12-11) 72, Kent State (17-6) 75 [3] 79-83 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 161.8		 Toledo (56.3%) DOG
UNLV (10-12) 96, Fresno State (11-11) 98 [2] 66-71 ✗ MAE: 28.2
BET UNDER 153.2		 Fresno State (55.6%) DOG
SMU (15-7) 83, NC State (17-6) 84 [1] 79-85 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET OVER 159.2		 SMU (55.5%) DOG
Evansville (5-18) 63, Indiana State (10-14) 84 [21] 69-74 ✗ MAE: 13.1
O/U: 145.2		 Evansville (53.2%) DOG
Buffalo (14-9) 71, Miami (OH) #23 (23-0) 73 [2] 80-77 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 165.2		 Miami (OH) (50.9%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
31
Final results
31
Correct picks
26
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
83.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
31
Avg Confidence
76.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1113
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
29
ML Win Rate
86.2%
ML Profit
$385
ML ROI
13.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-101
ROI
-16.9%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
16
ATS Wins
10
ATS Losses
6
ATS Win Rate
62.5%
Spread Profit
$309
Spread ROI
19.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
31
Avg Confidence
58.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2126
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
21
O/U Wins
11
O/U Losses
10
O/U Win Rate
52.4%
O/U Profit
$-0
O/U ROI
-0.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-0.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
2
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$82
ROI
27.3%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$273
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
La Salle 61 @ Loyola Chicago 71 Loyola Chicago (70.8%) Loyola Chicago -2.8 +9.8 +12.5 +10.0 COVERED
UIC 74 @ Murray State 81 Murray State (75.1%) Murray State -6.2 +8.4 +14.7 +7.0 COVERED
Southern Illinois 54 @ Illinois State 50 Illinois State (75.4%) Illinois State -8.8 +6.6 +15.3 -4.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
SMU 83, NC State 84 [1] SMU 55.5% +120 +11.7% LOSS
Evansville 63, Indiana State 84 [21] Evansville 53.2% +107 +7.0% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-101
ROI
-16.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
SMU 83, NC State 84 [1] SMU 55.5% +120 +11.7% LOSS
La Salle 61, Loyola Chicago 71 [10] Loyola Chicago 70.8% -160 +11.6% WIN
Nevada 87, Boise State 91 [4] Boise State 75.0% -220 +9.2% WIN
Lindenwood 72, SIU Edwardsville 78 [6] Lindenwood 72.6% -195 +8.9% LOSS
Evansville 63, Indiana State 84 [21] Evansville 53.2% +107 +7.0% LOSS
Indiana 75, USC 81 [6] USC 56.5% -110 +6.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-38
ROI
-18.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
SMU 83, NC State 84 [1] SMU 55.5% +120 +11.7% LOSS
La Salle 61, Loyola Chicago 71 [10] Loyola Chicago 70.8% -160 +11.6% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Akron @ Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan 36.3% +575 +22.1% LOSS
St. John's @ DePaul DePaul 36.8% +450 +19.5% LOSS
Saint Louis @ Davidson Davidson 33.3% +425 +15.2% LOSS