Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-04
All Games Summary
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
25
Pending
0
Accuracy
59.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (61)
UTSA (4-18) 88, South Florida (15-8) 109 [21] 71-96 ✗ MAE: 15.1
BET OVER 163.8		 South Florida (94.5%)
San Diego (10-15) 60, Saint Mary's (20-4) 87 [27] 60-83 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 148.5		 Saint Mary's (94.0%)
Notre Dame (11-12) 65, Louisville #24 (16-6) 76 [11] 67-77 ✓ MAE: 1.6
BET UNDER 155.5		 Louisville (92.2%)
Northwestern (10-13) 44, Illinois #5 (20-3) 84 [40] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 150.2		 Illinois (87.5%)
UCF (17-5) 55, Houston #8 (20-2) 79 [24] 63-83 ✓ MAE: 5.8
O/U: 146.5		 Houston (86.8%)
Pepperdine (6-18) 81, Seattle U (15-9) 83 [2] 64-76 ✗ MAE: 12.2
O/U: 138.5		 Seattle U (86.6%)
Charleston Southern (11-13) 55, High Point (21-4) 80 [25] 73-86 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 162.5		 High Point (86.4%)
Old Dominion (7-17) 79, UL Monroe (4-20) 85 [6] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 154.2		 Old Dominion (84.7%)
Army (10-14) 55, Colgate (14-10) 69 [14] 71-81 ✗ MAE: 14.1
O/U: 150.2		 Colgate (78.0%)
Milwaukee (9-16) 63, Detroit Mercy (10-12) 76 [13] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 12.1
BET UNDER 159.2		 Milwaukee (77.3%)
Southern Miss (12-13) 77, Marshall (15-8) 81 [4] 71-79 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 148.5		 Marshall (77.1%)
North Alabama (7-14) 60, Central Arkansas (13-10) 81 [21] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 4.8
O/U: 147.5		 Central Arkansas (77.0%)
Charlotte (13-10) 64, Wichita State (14-9) 74 [10] 70-80 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 141.8		 Wichita State (76.5%)
Georgia Tech (11-12) 85, California (17-6) 90 [5] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 15.0
BET UNDER 151.5		 California (75.8%)
San Francisco (14-11) 75, Loyola Marymount (12-13) 84 [9] 66-76 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 145.2		 San Francisco (75.3%)
UTEP (8-15) 66, Sam Houston (16-7) 70 [4] 69-77 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 144.5		 Sam Houston (75.2%)
Northern Kentucky (14-11) 84, Green Bay (13-12) 87 [3] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET OVER 149.8		 Northern Kentucky (75.2%)
American University (13-11) 59, Bucknell (8-16) 60 [1] 63-72 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 141.5		 American University (75.2%)
James Madison (11-13) 61, Louisiana (8-16) 64 [3] 64-72 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 132.5		 James Madison (75.0%)
Colorado (13-10) 67, Baylor (13-9) 86 [19] 71-88 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET OVER 155.8		 Baylor (74.8%)
Seton Hall (16-7) 60, Villanova (17-5) 72 [12] 59-71 ✓ MAE: 1.2
BET UNDER 134.5		 Villanova (74.0%)
George Mason (20-3) 65, Duquesne (13-10) 71 [6] 66-80 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET OVER 143.5		 George Mason (73.9%)
Grambling (10-11) 64, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (9-13) 67 [3] 73-77 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 145.2		 Grambling (72.8%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 71, Texas State (14-11) 77 [6] 73-85 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 151.2		 Georgia Southern (72.5%)
Middle Tennessee (11-11) 84, Florida International (11-11) 88 [4] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 151.8		 Middle Tennessee (72.5%)
Delaware (6-16) 69, Liberty (19-3) 75 [6] 71-68 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 132.0		 Liberty (69.4%)
Oklahoma (11-12) 78, Kentucky (16-7) 94 [16] 76-80 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 152.2		 Kentucky (68.7%)
Gonzaga #6 (22-2) 80, Portland (11-14) 87 [7] 91-80 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET OVER 152.5		 Gonzaga (68.0%)
Texas A&M (17-5) 97, Alabama (15-7) 100 [3] 80-88 ✗ MAE: 14.3
BET UNDER 180.2		 Alabama (67.7%)
Lehigh (10-14) 84, Loyola Maryland (9-15) 89 [5] 70-77 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 149.2		 Loyola Maryland (67.3%)
South Alabama (16-7) 57, App State (16-9) 65 [8] 60-70 ✓ MAE: 3.9
O/U: 131.5		 App State (67.0%)
Furman (16-8) 71, East Tennessee State (17-7) 75 [4] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 141.2		 East Tennessee State (65.8%)
Gardner-Webb (3-21) 66, Longwood (13-12) 86 [20] 74-70 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 147.5		 Longwood (65.0%)
Butler (13-10) 87, Providence (10-13) 97 [10] 75-86 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 169.0		 Providence (64.5%)
South Carolina Upstate (10-14) 67, UNC Asheville (11-13) 76 [9] 66-80 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 139.5		 UNC Asheville (64.3%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (14-10) 61, Youngstown State (12-12) 90 [29] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 16.8
BET OVER 147.5		 Purdue Fort Wayne (64.1%)
VMI (6-18) 67, Wofford (16-8) 81 [14] 78-76 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET OVER 149.5		 Wofford (63.8%)
Michigan State #10 (19-4) 73, Minnesota (11-12) 76 [3] 74-68 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 135.8		 Michigan State (63.5%)
Kansas City (4-20) 75, South Dakota (13-12) 82 [7] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 156.5		 Kansas City (61.8%) DOG
Lipscomb (15-9) 76, Austin Peay (16-6) 87 [11] 76-80 ✓ MAE: 3.9
O/U: 157.2		 Austin Peay (61.4%)
BYU #16 (17-5) 92, Oklahoma State (16-6) 99 [7] 82-77 ✗ MAE: 15.8
BET UNDER 167.8		 BYU (60.7%)
Oakland (14-11) 78, Cleveland State (10-14) 91 [13] 84-77 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 170.2		 Oakland (60.5%)
Creighton (12-11) 68, Georgetown (13-10) 76 [8] 74-77 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET OVER 146.8		 Georgetown (59.7%)
Louisiana Tech (12-10) 63, New Mexico State (11-11) 72 [9] 61-72 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 135.5		 Louisiana Tech (59.5%)
Pacific (15-10) 56, Santa Clara (20-5) 71 [15] 76-77 ✗ MAE: 12.8
O/U: 151.0		 Santa Clara (58.8%)
South Dakota State (11-13) 62, St. Thomas-Minnesota (19-6) 77 [15] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 157.5		 South Dakota State (58.7%)
New Mexico (18-5) 66, Utah State (19-3) 86 [20] 67-78 ✗ MAE: 15.2
BET UNDER 156.8		 New Mexico (57.9%)
Western Carolina (8-14) 78, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 81 [3] 77-84 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET OVER 155.5		 UNC Greensboro (57.3%) DOG
Utah (9-13) 63, Arizona State (12-11) 71 [8] 75-83 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 161.5		 Utah (56.2%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (8-16) 54, South Carolina State (6-16) 63 [9] 64-67 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 134.5		 South Carolina State (56.1%) DOG
Georgia State (9-15) 63, Troy (16-8) 74 [11] 78-77 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 144.8		 Troy (54.5%)
Wright State (15-9) 66, Robert Morris (15-10) 72 [6] 74-80 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 147.2		 Robert Morris (54.5%) DOG
Lafayette (7-17) 50, Navy (18-6) 65 [15] 69-68 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 140.2		 Navy (53.7%)
Washington State (11-14) 64, Oregon State (13-12) 74 [10] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 147.8		 Oregon State (52.5%) DOG
North Texas (12-11) 83, Rice (10-13) 86 [3] 64-67 ✗ MAE: 19.2
BET UNDER 133.8		 Rice (52.0%) DOG
George Washington (13-10) 73, Saint Joseph's (15-8) 76 [3] 69-77 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 155.5		 Saint Joseph's (51.9%) DOG
Stanford (14-9) 64, Clemson #20 (19-4) 66 [2] 65-71 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET UNDER 138.5		 Stanford (51.9%) DOG
Radford (13-12) 78, Winthrop (17-8) 80 [2] 81-82 ✓ MAE: 2.5
O/U: 161.2		 Radford (51.8%) DOG
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 76, Tulsa (20-3) 78 [2] 75-82 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 162.8		 Florida Atlantic (51.4%) DOG
Washington (12-11) 74, Iowa (17-5) 84 [10] 72-76 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 141.5		 Washington (50.7%) DOG
Coastal Carolina (14-11) 66, Arkansas State (14-10) 70 [4] 76-79 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET OVER 151.5		 Coastal Carolina (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
61
Final results
61
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
25
Pending
0
Accuracy
59.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
61
Avg Confidence
67.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0938
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
53
ML Win Rate
58.5%
ML Profit
$-855
ML ROI
-16.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
10
Wins
5
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$64
ROI
6.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
16
Wins
7
Losses
9
Pending
0
Win Rate
43.8%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-175
ROI
-11.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
2
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-199
ROI
-33.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
34
ATS Wins
19
ATS Losses
15
ATS Win Rate
55.9%
Spread Profit
$227
Spread ROI
6.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+3.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
61
Avg Confidence
61.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1593
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
51
O/U Wins
29
O/U Losses
22
O/U Win Rate
56.9%
O/U Profit
$436
O/U ROI
8.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
3
Completed
3
Covered
2
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$82
ROI
27.3%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
33.3%
O/U Profit
$-109
O/U ROI
-36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-19.1%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Colorado 67 @ Baylor 86 Baylor (74.8%) Baylor -7.5 +10.0 +17.5 +19.0 COVERED
Texas State 77 @ Georgia Southern 71 Georgia Southern (72.5%) Georgia Southern -4.2 +7.0 +11.3 -6.0 FAILED
Seton Hall 60 @ Villanova 72 Villanova (74.0%) Villanova -5.5 +6.1 +11.6 +12.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
10
Wins
5
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$64
ROI
6.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Western Carolina 78, UNC Greensboro 81 [3] UNC Greensboro 57.3% +102 +9.9% WIN
Wright State 66, Robert Morris 72 [6] Robert Morris 54.5% +117 +10.3% WIN
Washington State 64, Oregon State 74 [10] Oregon State 52.5% +115 +7.7% WIN
North Texas 83, Rice 86 [3] Rice 52.0% +115 +7.3% WIN
George Washington 73, Saint Joseph's 76 [3] Saint Joseph's 51.9% +115 +7.2% WIN
Stanford 64, Clemson 66 [2] Stanford 51.9% +145 +12.6% LOSS
Radford 78, Winthrop 80 [2] Radford 51.8% +135 +10.9% LOSS
Florida Atlantic 76, Tulsa 78 [2] Florida Atlantic 51.4% +124 +8.6% LOSS
Washington 74, Iowa 84 [10] Washington 50.7% +115 +5.9% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 66, Arkansas State 70 [4] Coastal Carolina 50.1% +122 +6.7% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Milwaukee 63, Detroit Mercy 76 [13] Milwaukee 77.3% -210 +12.2% LOSS
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
16
Wins
7
Losses
9
Pending
0
Win Rate
43.8%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-175
ROI
-11.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Lehigh 84, Loyola Maryland 89 [5] Loyola Maryland 67.3% -120 +15.1% WIN
Georgia Southern 71, Texas State 77 [6] Georgia Southern 72.5% -160 +13.4% LOSS
Stanford 64, Clemson 66 [2] Stanford 51.9% +145 +12.6% LOSS
Milwaukee 63, Detroit Mercy 76 [13] Milwaukee 77.3% -210 +12.2% LOSS
Radford 78, Winthrop 80 [2] Radford 51.8% +135 +10.9% LOSS
Wright State 66, Robert Morris 72 [6] Robert Morris 54.5% +117 +10.3% WIN
Western Carolina 78, UNC Greensboro 81 [3] UNC Greensboro 57.3% +102 +9.9% WIN
Florida Atlantic 76, Tulsa 78 [2] Florida Atlantic 51.4% +124 +8.6% LOSS
Louisiana Tech 63, New Mexico State 72 [9] Louisiana Tech 59.5% -115 +8.4% LOSS
Washington State 64, Oregon State 74 [10] Oregon State 52.5% +115 +7.7% WIN
North Texas 83, Rice 86 [3] Rice 52.0% +115 +7.3% WIN
George Washington 73, Saint Joseph's 76 [3] Saint Joseph's 51.9% +115 +7.2% WIN
Purdue Fort Wayne 61, Youngstown State 90 [29] Purdue Fort Wayne 64.1% -148 +6.9% LOSS
Coastal Carolina 66, Arkansas State 70 [4] Coastal Carolina 50.1% +122 +6.7% LOSS
Washington 74, Iowa 84 [10] Washington 50.7% +115 +5.9% LOSS
Creighton 68, Georgetown 76 [8] Georgetown 59.7% -130 +5.4% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
2
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-199
ROI
-33.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Lehigh 84, Loyola Maryland 89 [5] Loyola Maryland 67.3% -120 +15.1% WIN
Georgia Southern 71, Texas State 77 [6] Georgia Southern 72.5% -160 +13.4% LOSS
Stanford 64, Clemson 66 [2] Stanford 51.9% +145 +12.6% LOSS
Milwaukee 63, Detroit Mercy 76 [13] Milwaukee 77.3% -210 +12.2% LOSS
Radford 78, Winthrop 80 [2] Radford 51.8% +135 +10.9% LOSS
Wright State 66, Robert Morris 72 [6] Robert Morris 54.5% +117 +10.3% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$1400
ROI
466.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Gonzaga @ Portland Portland 32.0% +1600 +26.4% WIN
Longwood @ Gardner-Webb Gardner-Webb 35.0% +525 +19.8% LOSS
Liberty @ Delaware Delaware 30.6% +547 +15.9% LOSS