Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-05
All Games Summary
Total Picks
51
Final results
51
Correct picks
35
Incorrect picks
16
Pending
0
Accuracy
68.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (51)
Penn State (10-12) 69, Michigan #2 (20-1) 110 [41] 63-87 ✗ MAE: 14.5
BET UNDER 162.5		 Michigan (95.5%)
The Citadel (8-15) 64, Samford (11-12) 78 [14] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET OVER 143.5		 Samford (88.1%)
Canisius (8-16) 60, Quinnipiac (15-9) 75 [15] 64-78 ✓ MAE: 3.9
BET OVER 140.5		 Quinnipiac (87.7%)
Rider (3-18) 52, Marist (15-7) 81 [29] 49-70 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 135.5		 Marist (87.6%)
Abilene Christian (10-11) 55, Utah Valley (16-6) 68 [13] 70-77 ✗ MAE: 11.6
O/U: 145.8		 Utah Valley (87.3%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-15) 62, UC Irvine (15-7) 78 [16] 65-79 ✓ MAE: 2.0
O/U: 144.5		 UC Irvine (86.9%)
North Dakota State (19-5) 71, Denver (9-15) 78 [7] 76-86 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET OVER 156.0		 North Dakota State (82.2%)
Long Beach State (8-15) 74, UC San Diego (15-8) 77 [3] 67-82 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET OVER 146.5		 UC San Diego (79.9%)
Southern Indiana (5-17) 54, UT Martin (18-5) 76 [22] 61-70 ✓ MAE: 6.4
O/U: 132.2		 UT Martin (77.6%)
North Carolina A&T (9-12) 62, Charleston (15-8) 78 [16] 69-84 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 155.5		 Charleston (77.4%)
Chicago State (2-19) 67, Central Connecticut (11-10) 78 [11] 60-78 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 138.0		 Central Connecticut (76.9%)
Northeastern (6-15) 63, Hofstra (14-9) 80 [17] 66-79 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 153.5		 Hofstra (76.7%)
Montana (13-10) 74, Eastern Washington (5-17) 82 [8] 74-85 ✗ MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 151.2		 Montana (76.2%)
Eastern Illinois (9-14) 68, Tennessee State (14-8) 77 [9] 64-74 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET UNDER 146.0		 Tennessee State (75.5%)
New Haven (10-12) 55, Long Island University (14-8) 60 [5] 61-72 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET UNDER 135.8		 Long Island University (74.3%)
Binghamton (5-18) 62, UMBC (13-8) 79 [17] 66-80 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET OVER 138.5		 UMBC (73.6%)
Idaho State (10-13) 73, Northern Arizona (8-15) 79 [6] 70-81 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET OVER 141.2		 Idaho State (73.3%)
Western Illinois (4-19) 72, Tennessee Tech (9-14) 97 [25] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 13.7
BET UNDER 143.8		 Tennessee Tech (72.6%)
Idaho (13-9) 66, Montana State (13-10) 73 [7] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 147.2		 Montana State (72.3%)
Morehead State (12-11) 70, Southeast Missouri State (13-10) 82 [12] 64-72 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 145.5		 Southeast Missouri State (72.1%)
Iona (14-9) 72, Siena (16-7) 79 [7] 63-73 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 140.2		 Siena (72.0%)
St. Francis (PA) (6-15) 89, Mercyhurst (11-12) 98 [9] 61-72 ✗ MAE: 27.2
BET UNDER 136.2		 Mercyhurst (71.9%)
Drexel (12-11) 60, Campbell (10-13) 81 [21] 68-72 ✗ MAE: 8.0
O/U: 141.2		 Campbell (71.0%)
UNC Wilmington (19-3) 78, William & Mary (14-8) 85 [7] 66-78 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 158.5		 UNC Wilmington (69.8%)
West Georgia (10-12) 73, North Florida (5-18) 81 [8] 81-85 ✓ MAE: 6.4
O/U: 166.2		 West Georgia (69.4%)
Omaha (12-12) 73, North Dakota (13-12) 76 [3] 72-76 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 150.5		 North Dakota (68.4%)
UC Riverside (8-15) 72, Cal State Fullerton (10-13) 78 [6] 76-82 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET OVER 155.5		 Cal State Fullerton (68.3%)
Bryant (7-15) 63, UAlbany (7-16) 65 [2] 64-70 ✓ MAE: 3.8
O/U: 133.5		 Bryant (67.6%)
Tarleton State (11-11) 55, California Baptist (16-6) 56 [1] 69-78 ✗ MAE: 18.0
BET OVER 139.2		 California Baptist (67.2%)
Stony Brook (14-9) 75, Monmouth (11-12) 76 [1] 63-70 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 138.2		 Stony Brook (67.0%)
Stonehill (9-14) 58, Fairleigh Dickinson (7-16) 74 [16] 64-69 ✓ MAE: 5.2
BET OVER 130.5		 Fairleigh Dickinson (66.9%)
Stetson (8-15) 71, Bellarmine (9-13) 92 [21] 71-81 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 148.8		 Bellarmine (65.0%)
Maryland (8-13) 62, Ohio State (14-7) 82 [20] 76-72 ✓ MAE: 7.7
BET UNDER 150.5		 Ohio State (64.6%)
Western Kentucky (12-10) 66, Jacksonville State (11-10) 71 [5] 72-73 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 140.2		 Western Kentucky (64.2%)
Jacksonville (9-14) 84, Queens University (12-11) 93 [9] 74-88 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 146.5		 Queens University (62.4%)
Cincinnati (11-11) 54, West Virginia (14-8) 59 [5] 61-66 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 126.8		 Cincinnati (61.5%)
UAB (14-8) 80, Memphis (10-11) 90 [10] 72-80 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 155.2		 UAB (60.2%)
Florida Gulf Coast (10-13) 74, Eastern Kentucky (7-16) 76 [2] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 3.0
O/U: 154.2		 Eastern Kentucky (59.7%)
Sacred Heart (10-14) 87, Fairfield (14-10) 92 [5] 70-76 ✗ MAE: 16.6
BET UNDER 155.2		 Sacred Heart (59.5%)
UT Arlington (14-7) 84, Utah Tech (13-11) 87 [3] 66-75 ✗ MAE: 15.0
O/U: 139.8		 Utah Tech (58.7%)
UMass Lowell (9-14) 56, NJIT (11-12) 81 [25] 69-72 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 149.2		 NJIT (57.9%) DOG
Le Moyne (11-12) 78, Wagner (7-13) 79 [1] 68-75 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 139.0		 Wagner (56.5%) DOG
Little Rock (9-14) 74, Lindenwood (14-10) 79 [5] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 151.5		 Little Rock (55.9%) DOG
Vermont (14-9) 70, Maine (5-18) 76 [6] 68-65 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 130.2		 Vermont (55.2%)
Weber State (11-12) 74, Northern Colorado (13-10) 88 [14] 78-84 ✗ MAE: 10.3
O/U: 162.2		 Weber State (54.8%) DOG
Elon (13-10) 79, Hampton (10-13) 87 [8] 68-75 ✗ MAE: 11.5
O/U: 143.2		 Hampton (53.6%) DOG
Mount St. Mary's (10-14) 70, Merrimack (14-9) 87 [17] 64-69 ✗ MAE: 12.2
O/U: 134.5		 Mount St. Mary's (52.7%) DOG
Manhattan (9-15) 75, Saint Peter's (12-8) 80 [5] 68-65 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 144.8		 Saint Peter's (52.4%)
UC Santa Barbara (15-7) 75, UC Davis (13-9) 85 [10] 75-78 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET OVER 147.2		 UC Davis (52.2%) DOG
Mercer (15-8) 75, Chattanooga (9-14) 79 [4] 73-77 ✓ MAE: 2.2
BET UNDER 155.2		 Chattanooga (52.0%) DOG
Cal Poly (9-14) 96, Cal State Northridge (13-10) 97 [1] 77-82 ✗ MAE: 16.8
BET UNDER 178.0		 Cal Poly (52.0%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
51
Final results
51
Correct picks
35
Incorrect picks
16
Pending
0
Accuracy
68.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
51
Avg Confidence
68.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0943
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
41
ML Win Rate
70.7%
ML Profit
$175
ML ROI
4.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$285
ROI
40.7%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
11
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
73.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$605
ROI
40.3%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
4
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$276
ROI
55.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
31
ATS Wins
19
ATS Losses
12
ATS Win Rate
61.3%
Spread Profit
$527
Spread ROI
17.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+8.9%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
51
Avg Confidence
59.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1564
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
37
O/U Wins
19
O/U Losses
18
O/U Win Rate
51.4%
O/U Profit
$-73
O/U ROI
-2.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-1.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
2
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$182
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Chicago State 67 @ Central Connecticut 78 Central Connecticut (76.9%) Central Connecticut -8.8 +9.2 +17.9 +11.0 COVERED
Idaho 66 @ Montana State 73 Montana State (72.3%) Montana State -2.2 +8.6 +10.8 +7.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
7
Wins
4
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
57.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$285
ROI
40.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Le Moyne 78, Wagner 79 [1] Wagner 56.5% +105 +9.7% WIN
Weber State 74, Northern Colorado 88 [14] Weber State 54.8% N/A N/A LOSS
Elon 79, Hampton 87 [8] Hampton 53.6% +100 +5.7% WIN
Mount St. Mary's 70, Merrimack 87 [17] Mount St. Mary's 52.7% +132 +11.2% LOSS
UC Santa Barbara 75, UC Davis 85 [10] UC Davis 52.2% +120 +8.4% WIN
Mercer 75, Chattanooga 79 [4] Chattanooga 52.0% +160 +14.8% WIN
Cal Poly 96, Cal State Northridge 97 [1] Cal Poly 52.0% +110 +6.2% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
15
Wins
11
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
73.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$605
ROI
40.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Omaha 73, North Dakota 76 [3] North Dakota 68.4% -120 +16.2% WIN
Mercer 75, Chattanooga 79 [4] Chattanooga 52.0% +160 +14.8% WIN
Stonehill 58, Fairleigh Dickinson 74 [16] Fairleigh Dickinson 66.9% -136 +11.6% WIN
Idaho 66, Montana State 73 [7] Montana State 72.3% -170 +11.6% WIN
Mount St. Mary's 70, Merrimack 87 [17] Mount St. Mary's 52.7% +132 +11.2% LOSS
Le Moyne 78, Wagner 79 [1] Wagner 56.5% +105 +9.7% WIN
UC Santa Barbara 75, UC Davis 85 [10] UC Davis 52.2% +120 +8.4% WIN
Florida Gulf Coast 74, Eastern Kentucky 76 [2] Eastern Kentucky 59.7% -116 +8.3% WIN
Drexel 60, Campbell 81 [21] Campbell 71.0% -195 +7.4% WIN
Stony Brook 75, Monmouth 76 [1] Stony Brook 67.0% -165 +7.1% LOSS
UMass Lowell 56, NJIT 81 [25] NJIT 57.9% -115 +6.8% WIN
Cal Poly 96, Cal State Northridge 97 [1] Cal Poly 52.0% +110 +6.2% LOSS
Little Rock 74, Lindenwood 79 [5] Little Rock 55.9% -108 +6.2% LOSS
Elon 79, Hampton 87 [8] Hampton 53.6% +100 +5.7% WIN
UT Arlington 84, Utah Tech 87 [3] Utah Tech 58.7% -125 +5.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
5
Wins
4
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$276
ROI
55.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Omaha 73, North Dakota 76 [3] North Dakota 68.4% -120 +16.2% WIN
Mercer 75, Chattanooga 79 [4] Chattanooga 52.0% +160 +14.8% WIN
Stonehill 58, Fairleigh Dickinson 74 [16] Fairleigh Dickinson 66.9% -136 +11.6% WIN
Idaho 66, Montana State 73 [7] Montana State 72.3% -170 +11.6% WIN
Mount St. Mary's 70, Merrimack 87 [17] Mount St. Mary's 52.7% +132 +11.2% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$65
ROI
21.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Vermont @ Maine Maine 44.8% +265 +18.5% WIN
Tarleton State @ California Baptist Tarleton State 32.8% +395 +13.5% LOSS
Penn State @ Michigan Penn State 4.5% +3000 +1.4% LOSS