Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-06
All Games Summary
Total Picks
9
Final results
9
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.8%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (9)
Brown (7-13) 69, Yale (16-4) 81 [12] 59-77 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 139.2		 Yale (90.2%)
Loyola Chicago (6-18) 64, Davidson (13-9) 84 [20] 61-75 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 138.8		 Davidson (83.4%)
Evansville (5-18) 63, Valparaiso (11-12) 70 [7] 60-78 ✓ MAE: 5.7
O/U: 136.2		 Valparaiso (81.5%)
Drake (12-12) 76, Illinois State (15-8) 86 [10] 66-74 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 144.0		 Illinois State (81.0%)
Dayton (15-8) 73, VCU (17-6) 99 [26] 69-79 ✗ MAE: 12.4
O/U: 149.2		 VCU (79.2%)
Bradley (16-8) 49, Northern Iowa (14-9) 61 [12] 63-65 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 133.8		 Northern Iowa (68.6%)
UIC (13-11) 62, Belmont (21-3) 68 [6] 83-78 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET OVER 150.5		 Belmont (65.3%)
Southern Illinois (10-13) 81, Murray State (17-7) 91 [10] 70-78 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET UNDER 158.5		 Southern Illinois (52.1%) DOG
UConn #3 (22-1) 72, St. John's #22 (17-5) 81 [9] 80-72 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET OVER 144.5		 UConn (50.8%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
9
Final results
9
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
77.8%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
72.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2819
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
8
ML Win Rate
87.5%
ML Profit
$116
ML ROI
14.6%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$159
ROI
52.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
6
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
33.3%
Spread Profit
$-218
Spread ROI
-36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-19.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
55.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3172
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
7
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
5
O/U Win Rate
28.6%
O/U Profit
$-318
O/U ROI
-45.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-23.8%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Evansville 63 @ Valparaiso 70 Valparaiso (81.5%) Valparaiso -10.2 +8.0 +18.3 +7.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southern Illinois 81, Murray State 91 [10] Southern Illinois 52.1% N/A N/A LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$159
ROI
52.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bradley 49, Northern Iowa 61 [12] Northern Iowa 68.6% -165 +8.7% WIN
UIC 62, Belmont 68 [6] Belmont 65.3% -150 +7.3% WIN
Dayton 73, VCU 99 [26] VCU 79.2% -320 +5.9% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$252
ROI
84.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UConn @ St. John's St. John's 49.2% +125 +5.4% WIN
Bradley @ Northern Iowa Northern Iowa 68.6% -165 +8.7% WIN
Belmont @ UIC Belmont 65.3% -150 +7.3% WIN