Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-08
All Games Summary
Total Picks
11
Final results
11
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
72.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (11)
Northwestern (10-13) 70, Iowa (17-5) 76 [6] 61-74 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 139.2		 Iowa (90.1%)
Furman (16-8) 64, UNC Greensboro (9-15) 67 [3] 70-82 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 149.5		 Furman (86.5%)
Rice (10-13) 65, UAB (14-9) 71 [6] 70-84 ✗ MAE: 8.9
O/U: 152.8		 UAB (82.4%)
Minnesota (11-12) 62, Maryland (8-14) 67 [5] 56-73 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 139.0		 Minnesota (82.3%)
Charlotte (13-10) 54, Memphis (11-11) 77 [23] 66-77 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 144.2		 Memphis (78.2%)
Ohio State (15-7) 61, Michigan #2 (21-1) 82 [21] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 161.2		 Michigan (71.0%)
Penn State (10-13) 75, USC (17-6) 77 [2] 79-71 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 155.8		 USC (61.0%)
Tulsa (20-3) 74, South Florida (15-8) 80 [6] 77-85 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 170.5		 South Florida (58.7%)
Tulane (13-9) 61, Wichita State (14-9) 75 [14] 73-70 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 147.2		 Wichita State (58.2%)
UCF (17-5) 72, Cincinnati (11-12) 92 [20] 62-74 ✗ MAE: 13.8
BET UNDER 146.5		 Cincinnati (54.8%)
West Virginia (15-8) 63, Texas Tech #13 (16-6) 70 [7] 67-68 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 137.0		 West Virginia (50.0%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
11
Final results
11
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
72.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
11
Avg Confidence
70.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2991
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
9
ML Win Rate
77.8%
ML Profit
$54
ML ROI
6.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-176
ROI
-58.7%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
7
ATS Wins
3
ATS Losses
4
ATS Win Rate
42.9%
Spread Profit
$-127
Spread ROI
-18.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
11
Avg Confidence
59.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2835
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
9
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$245
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Maryland 67 @ Minnesota 62 Minnesota (82.3%) Minnesota -9.2 +7.5 +16.8 -5.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
West Virginia 63, Texas Tech 70 [7] West Virginia 50.0% +164 +13.7% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-176
ROI
-58.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
West Virginia 63, Texas Tech 70 [7] West Virginia 50.0% +164 +13.7% LOSS
Rice 65, UAB 71 [6] UAB 82.4% -420 +5.4% WIN
Minnesota 62, Maryland 67 [5] Minnesota 82.3% -420 +5.3% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
West Virginia 63, Texas Tech 70 [7] West Virginia 50.0% +164 +13.7% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan @ Ohio State Ohio State 29.0% +382 +9.2% LOSS
Texas Tech @ West Virginia West Virginia 50.0% +164 +13.7% LOSS
Tulsa @ South Florida Tulsa 41.3% +150 +2.7% LOSS