Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-09
All Games Summary
Total Picks
28
Final results
28
Correct picks
17
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (28)
Houston Christian (8-16) 69, McNeese (19-5) 73 [4] 60-76 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 138.8		 McNeese (96.2%)
Mid-Atlantic Christian (0-5) 53, Davidson (14-9) 114 [61] 59-74 ✗ MAE: 23.4 Davidson (95.8%)
East Texas A&M (10-15) 70, Stephen F. Austin (21-3) 74 [4] 61-76 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 143.0		 Stephen F. Austin (91.6%)
Xavier (12-11) 82, St. John's #22 (18-5) 87 [5] 69-88 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 160.2		 St. John's (90.6%)
Oregon (8-15) 74, Indiana (16-8) 92 [18] 71-75 ✗ MAE: 10.3
BET OVER 142.5		 Indiana (86.7%)
Bucknell (8-17) 60, Navy (19-6) 76 [16] 66-68 ✗ MAE: 9.0
O/U: 134.2		 Navy (83.9%)
Illinois State (16-8) 80, Evansville (5-19) 88 [8] 76-72 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET OVER 137.5		 Illinois State (83.5%)
Lamar (12-12) 68, Northwestern State (6-18) 70 [2] 59-64 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 135.5		 Lamar (81.7%)
Alabama State (7-16) 68, Southern (10-13) 69 [1] 72-79 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 151.5		 Southern (79.3%)
Delaware State (6-16) 63, North Carolina Central (8-13) 72 [9] 63-71 ✓ MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 136.8		 North Carolina Central (77.5%)
NC State (18-6) 77, Louisville #24 (17-6) 118 [41] 73-79 ✗ MAE: 21.6
BET UNDER 161.5		 Louisville (75.8%)
Texas Southern (7-14) 69, Bethune-Cookman (12-11) 79 [10] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 149.5		 Bethune-Cookman (74.3%)
Jackson State (7-16) 63, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (10-13) 84 [21] 76-88 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 156.8		 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (74.1%)
North Alabama (7-15) 65, Central Arkansas (14-10) 72 [7] 78-77 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET OVER 145.5		 Central Arkansas (71.2%)
Mississippi Valley State (1-22) 66, Alcorn State (4-18) 74 [8] 67-68 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET UNDER 141.5		 Alcorn State (69.2%)
Nicholls (10-14) 72, UT Rio Grande Valley (13-11) 92 [20] 76-69 ✗ MAE: 9.7
BET UNDER 147.2		 UT Rio Grande Valley (66.1%)
Murray State (18-7) 60, Northern Iowa (15-9) 89 [29] 64-71 ✗ MAE: 17.6
BET UNDER 142.5		 Murray State (65.7%)
Grambling (11-11) 58, Alabama A&M (12-11) 66 [8] 60-69 ✗ MAE: 8.3
BET UNDER 135.5		 Grambling (64.4%)
Howard (15-9) 81, Yale (17-4) 87 [6] 76-65 ✗ MAE: 13.5
BET UNDER 147.5		 Yale (63.6%)
Drake (12-13) 76, Valparaiso (12-12) 81 [5] 70-77 ✓ MAE: 5.6
BET OVER 143.5		 Drake (63.1%)
Charleston (16-8) 64, UNC Wilmington (19-4) 76 [12] 72-70 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 148.5		 UNC Wilmington (56.2%) DOG
Belmont (22-3) 84, Bradley (16-9) 95 [11] 80-72 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET UNDER 154.5		 Belmont (56.1%)
Arizona #1 (23-0) 78, Kansas #11 (18-5) 82 [4] 72-71 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 153.8		 Arizona (53.0%)
Indiana State (10-14) 65, Southern Illinois (10-14) 80 [15] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 10.6
O/U: 147.2		 Indiana State (52.6%)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (13-11) 78, New Orleans (11-14) 84 [6] 76-74 ✓ MAE: 6.4
O/U: 148.5		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (52.4%)
Incarnate Word (10-14) 62, SE Louisiana (7-17) 74 [12] 73-66 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 138.5		 Incarnate Word (52.0%) DOG
St. Francis (PA) (6-17) 75, Chicago State (3-20) 80 [5] 76-70 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 145.5		 St. Francis (PA) (50.5%) DOG
Prairie View A&M (9-14) 96, Florida A&M (7-13) 100 [4] 66-74 ✗ MAE: 27.9
BET UNDER 147.5		 Florida A&M (50.3%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
28
Final results
28
Correct picks
17
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
28
Avg Confidence
70.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1873
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
27
ML Win Rate
55.6%
ML Profit
$-705
ML ROI
-26.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-97
ROI
-16.2%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
13
ATS Wins
4
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
30.8%
Spread Profit
$-536
Spread ROI
-41.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-21.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
27
Avg Confidence
50.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2620
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
21
O/U Wins
7
O/U Losses
14
O/U Win Rate
33.3%
O/U Profit
$-764
O/U ROI
-36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-19.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$91
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Navy 76 @ Bucknell 60 Navy (83.9%) Navy -6.5 +8.6 +2.1 -16.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
St. Francis (PA) 75, Chicago State 80 [5] St. Francis (PA) 50.5% +120 +6.7% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$35
ROI
35.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bucknell 60, Navy 76 [16] Navy 83.9% -285 +12.8% WIN
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-97
ROI
-16.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bucknell 60, Navy 76 [16] Navy 83.9% -285 +12.8% WIN
Nicholls 72, UT Rio Grande Valley 92 [20] UT Rio Grande Valley 66.1% -137 +10.5% WIN
Charleston 64, UNC Wilmington 76 [12] UNC Wilmington 56.2% -105 +7.3% WIN
St. Francis (PA) 75, Chicago State 80 [5] St. Francis (PA) 50.5% +120 +6.7% LOSS
Lamar 68, Northwestern State 70 [2] Lamar 81.7% -380 +6.2% LOSS
Drake 76, Valparaiso 81 [5] Drake 63.1% -150 +5.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$108
ROI
53.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bucknell 60, Navy 76 [16] Navy 83.9% -285 +12.8% WIN
Nicholls 72, UT Rio Grande Valley 92 [20] UT Rio Grande Valley 66.1% -137 +10.5% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Yale @ Howard Howard 36.4% +315 +13.4% LOSS
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State Mississippi Valley State 30.8% +275 +5.3% LOSS
Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M Prairie View A&M 49.7% +130 +7.7% LOSS