Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-10
All Games Summary
Total Picks
22
Final results
22
Correct picks
13
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
59.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (22)
Washington State (11-15) 53, Gonzaga #6 (23-2) 83 [30] 68-88 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 155.8		 Gonzaga (97.0%)
Fresno State (11-12) 78, Utah State (20-3) 91 [13] 63-84 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 151.5		 Utah State (96.5%)
Notre Dame (11-13) 81, SMU (16-7) 89 [8] 68-82 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 153.2		 SMU (86.3%)
San José State (6-17) 75, UNLV (11-12) 82 [7] 64-80 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 151.8		 UNLV (86.1%)
Marquette (9-15) 74, Villanova (18-5) 77 [3] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 144.8		 Villanova (85.0%)
Air Force (3-20) 74, Colorado State (13-10) 91 [17] 72-64 ✗ MAE: 14.5
O/U: 134.5		 Colorado State (82.2%)
Illinois #5 (20-4) 90, Wisconsin (16-7) 92 [2] 64-77 ✗ MAE: 20.5
BET UNDER 153.8		 Illinois (82.0%)
Pittsburgh (9-15) 54, Duke #4 (21-2) 70 [16] 77-69 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET OVER 136.8		 Duke (81.3%)
Utah (9-14) 52, Houston #8 (21-2) 66 [14] 83-72 ✗ MAE: 18.5
BET OVER 143.0		 Houston (80.0%)
Iowa State #7 (21-2) 55, TCU (14-9) 62 [7] 79-69 ✗ MAE: 15.5
O/U: 147.2		 Iowa State (75.4%)
Florida State (11-12) 58, Virginia #18 (20-3) 61 [3] 79-77 ✗ MAE: 18.2
BET OVER 152.5		 Virginia (74.6%)
Rhode Island (14-9) 70, George Washington (13-11) 75 [5] 70-75 ✓ MAE: 0.2
BET UNDER 150.2		 George Washington (68.7%)
Saint Joseph's (15-9) 64, Fordham (12-12) 68 [4] 61-66 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET UNDER 135.0		 Saint Joseph's (67.0%)
Eastern Illinois (10-15) 70, Western Illinois (4-21) 79 [9] 66-62 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 132.5		 Eastern Illinois (66.5%)
George Mason (21-3) 70, Richmond (13-11) 82 [12] 71-70 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 141.8		 George Mason (62.1%)
LSU (14-9) 62, Arkansas #21 (17-6) 91 [29] 86-82 ✗ MAE: 12.3
BET OVER 160.2		 Arkansas (61.5%)
Nebraska #9 (21-2) 77, Purdue #12 (19-4) 80 [3] 68-77 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 148.5		 Nebraska (59.4%)
Auburn (14-9) 76, Vanderbilt #15 (19-4) 84 [8] 76-84 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET UNDER 162.2		 Auburn (57.7%)
North Carolina #14 (19-4) 66, Miami (18-5) 75 [9] 74-79 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 156.8		 Miami (54.6%) DOG
Oklahoma State (16-7) 76, Arizona State (12-12) 85 [9] 74-85 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET UNDER 161.2		 Arizona State (51.7%)
IU Indianapolis (7-18) 88, Milwaukee (9-17) 92 [4] 71-78 ✗ MAE: 15.4
BET UNDER 160.2		 IU Indianapolis (51.6%) DOG
Baylor (13-10) 94, BYU #16 (17-6) 99 [5] 73-79 ✗ MAE: 20.7
BET UNDER 158.8		 Baylor (50.1%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
22
Final results
22
Correct picks
13
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
59.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
22
Avg Confidence
71.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1319
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
22
ML Win Rate
59.1%
ML Profit
$-566
ML ROI
-25.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-105
ROI
-34.9%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
11
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
9
ATS Win Rate
18.2%
Spread Profit
$-718
Spread ROI
-65.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-34.2%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
22
Avg Confidence
61.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3894
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
18
O/U Wins
5
O/U Losses
13
O/U Win Rate
27.8%
O/U Profit
$-846
O/U ROI
-47.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-24.6%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Baylor 94, BYU 99 [5] Baylor 50.1% +140 +10.0% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-105
ROI
-34.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Baylor 94, BYU 99 [5] Baylor 50.1% +140 +10.0% LOSS
North Carolina 66, Miami 75 [9] Miami 54.6% -105 +5.7% WIN
Eastern Illinois 70, Western Illinois 79 [9] Eastern Illinois 66.5% -175 +5.1% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Houston @ Utah Utah 20.0% +850 +10.0% LOSS
Duke @ Pittsburgh Pittsburgh 18.7% +850 +8.7% LOSS
Colorado State @ Air Force Air Force 17.8% +850 +7.8% LOSS