Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-11
All Games Summary
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
18
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (54)
Pepperdine (6-19) 60, Saint Mary's (21-4) 88 [28] 58-82 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 142.5		 Saint Mary's (96.3%)
UL Monroe (4-21) 70, Arkansas State (15-10) 103 [33] 66-94 ✓ MAE: 6.5
O/U: 161.8		 Arkansas State (94.0%)
Colorado (14-10) 44, Texas Tech #16 (17-6) 78 [34] 66-82 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 156.0		 Texas Tech (89.9%)
Seattle U (15-10) 72, Santa Clara (21-5) 84 [12] 65-78 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 147.0		 Santa Clara (89.6%)
Washington (12-12) 60, Penn State (10-14) 63 [3] 68-80 ✗ MAE: 12.2
BET UNDER 154.2		 Washington (86.9%)
North Florida (6-19) 81, Florida Gulf Coast (10-15) 90 [9] 72-85 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 163.0		 Florida Gulf Coast (84.6%)
La Salle (7-17) 68, VCU (18-6) 77 [9] 79-75 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 147.0		 VCU (84.0%)
Clemson #20 (20-4) 66, Virginia Tech (16-8) 76 [10] 64-73 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 136.2		 Clemson (83.7%)
Iowa (18-5) 70, Maryland (9-14) 77 [7] 80-73 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 138.8		 Iowa (83.2%)
Eastern Michigan (9-15) 91, Kent State (17-7) 95 [4] 67-76 ✗ MAE: 21.9
BET UNDER 144.5		 Kent State (82.4%)
UTSA (4-19) 72, East Carolina (7-16) 88 [16] 67-83 ✓ MAE: 4.7
O/U: 150.8		 East Carolina (79.7%)
Chattanooga (10-15) 61, East Tennessee State (18-7) 73 [12] 67-76 ✓ MAE: 4.4
O/U: 144.0		 East Tennessee State (79.6%)
Bellarmine (11-13) 76, Central Arkansas (15-10) 84 [8] 74-86 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 150.2		 Central Arkansas (79.4%)
Northwestern (10-14) 75, Michigan #2 (22-1) 87 [12] 79-74 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 153.5		 Michigan (79.3%)
Jacksonville State (13-10) 64, UTEP (9-15) 69 [5] 64-71 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 133.0		 Jacksonville State (77.8%)
Eastern Kentucky (9-16) 61, Lipscomb (15-10) 75 [14] 75-84 ✗ MAE: 12.0
O/U: 161.2		 Lipscomb (77.5%)
Butler (13-11) 70, UConn #6 (22-2) 80 [10] 76-72 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 144.5		 UConn (77.2%)
Tulsa (20-4) 63, UAB (15-9) 68 [5] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 11.5
BET UNDER 161.2		 Tulsa (76.8%)
Holy Cross (9-16) 70, Colgate (15-10) 74 [4] 78-65 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 142.5		 Colgate (76.2%)
Mississippi State (11-12) 64, Tennessee (16-7) 73 [9] 82-72 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET OVER 147.5		 Tennessee (76.0%)
Northern Illinois (8-14) 52, Bowling Green (14-10) 68 [16] 80-71 ✗ MAE: 15.5
BET OVER 144.0		 Bowling Green (75.0%)
Western Michigan (8-15) 79, Toledo (12-12) 90 [11] 81-74 ✓ MAE: 7.0
O/U: 154.5		 Toledo (74.6%)
Loyola Marymount (13-13) 59, Pacific (16-10) 65 [6] 67-74 ✗ MAE: 8.8
O/U: 140.5		 Pacific (74.2%)
USC (18-6) 82, Ohio State (15-8) 89 [7] 69-76 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 151.5		 Ohio State (73.9%)
Texas A&M (17-6) 85, Missouri (16-7) 86 [1] 73-81 ✗ MAE: 8.4
BET UNDER 157.8		 Texas A&M (73.7%)
VMI (6-19) 71, UNC Greensboro (10-15) 92 [21] 66-79 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 149.5		 UNC Greensboro (73.3%)
The Citadel (9-16) 49, Western Carolina (8-15) 87 [38] 70-79 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET OVER 146.0		 Western Carolina (72.9%)
Providence (11-13) 80, Seton Hall (16-8) 87 [7] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 150.2		 Seton Hall (70.1%)
Old Dominion (8-17) 79, Marshall (15-9) 81 [2] 82-72 ✓ MAE: 4.0
O/U: 154.8		 Marshall (66.7%)
Portland (12-14) 58, San Diego (10-16) 71 [13] 70-79 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET UNDER 152.5		 San Diego (65.7%)
Georgia (17-6) 66, Florida #14 (17-6) 86 [20] 80-80 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 165.0		 Florida (65.3%)
New Mexico State (11-12) 75, Liberty (20-3) 77 [2] 76-69 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 143.0		 Liberty (64.7%)
Furman (16-9) 64, Mercer (15-10) 69 [5] 72-74 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 151.5		 Mercer (63.9%)
Ole Miss (11-12) 74, Alabama (16-7) 93 [19] 81-80 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 164.0		 Alabama (63.2%)
California (17-7) 100, Syracuse (13-11) 107 [7] 68-79 ✗ MAE: 29.9
O/U: 148.8		 Syracuse (62.5%)
Florida Atlantic (14-10) 73, Rice (10-14) 81 [8] 80-72 ✓ MAE: 8.0
O/U: 151.5		 Florida Atlantic (61.4%)
Georgia Southern (14-11) 65, App State (17-9) 81 [16] 70-67 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 143.5		 App State (60.6%)
Wofford (17-8) 80, Samford (13-12) 97 [17] 70-77 ✗ MAE: 15.0
BET UNDER 150.8		 Samford (59.7%)
Creighton (13-11) 71, DePaul (12-12) 72 [1] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET OVER 141.5		 DePaul (59.6%)
South Dakota (14-12) 71, North Dakota (14-13) 72 [1] 72-83 ✓ MAE: 6.2
O/U: 156.5		 South Dakota (58.5%)
Temple (15-8) 66, Tulane (13-10) 77 [11] 72-70 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 144.8		 Temple (55.5%) DOG
Army (10-15) 68, Boston University (10-15) 85 [17] 73-68 ✓ MAE: 6.1
O/U: 140.5		 Boston University (55.5%)
Jacksonville (9-16) 62, Stetson (8-17) 67 [5] 78-71 ✗ MAE: 10.1
BET OVER 138.5		 Jacksonville (55.3%)
American University (13-12) 82, Lehigh (10-15) 90 [8] 75-69 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET OVER 140.2		 American University (55.3%)
Lafayette (8-17) 54, Loyola Maryland (9-16) 68 [14] 68-77 ✗ MAE: 11.7
O/U: 146.5		 Lafayette (53.8%)
Kansas State (10-13) 62, Cincinnati (12-12) 91 [29] 80-74 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET OVER 148.5		 Cincinnati (53.7%)
Grand Canyon (15-8) 64, New Mexico (18-6) 70 [6] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 148.8		 Grand Canyon (52.6%)
Troy (17-8) 62, Texas State (15-11) 74 [12] 74-71 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 140.5		 Troy (52.5%)
Ball State (8-15) 53, Buffalo (14-10) 63 [10] 80-73 ✗ MAE: 18.5
BET OVER 141.8		 Buffalo (52.2%)
North Alabama (7-16) 73, West Georgia (11-13) 82 [9] 72-78 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET OVER 145.5		 North Alabama (51.5%)
Queens University (14-11) 87, Austin Peay (17-6) 95 [8] 79-86 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET OVER 161.5		 Queens University (51.4%)
Wichita State (15-9) 58, South Florida (16-8) 66 [8] 74-78 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET UNDER 159.5		 Wichita State (51.3%) DOG
Georgia Tech (11-13) 67, Wake Forest (11-12) 83 [16] 82-75 ✓ MAE: 4.5
O/U: 158.5		 Wake Forest (50.5%)
Boston College (9-14) 64, Stanford (15-9) 70 [6] 69-74 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET OVER 139.8		 Boston College (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
18
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
69.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1615
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
52
ML Win Rate
65.4%
ML Profit
$-500
ML ROI
-9.6%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
10
Wins
8
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$291
ROI
29.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
32
ATS Wins
15
ATS Losses
17
ATS Win Rate
46.9%
Spread Profit
$-336
Spread ROI
-10.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-5.5%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
54.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2106
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
36
O/U Wins
17
O/U Losses
19
O/U Win Rate
47.2%
O/U Profit
$-355
O/U ROI
-9.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-5.2%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$91
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Providence 80 @ Seton Hall 87 Seton Hall (70.1%) Seton Hall -4.2 +8.8 +13.1 +7.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Boston College 64, Stanford 70 [6] Boston College 50.5% +114 +5.7% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
10
Wins
8
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
80.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$291
ROI
29.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Old Dominion 79, Marshall 81 [2] Marshall 66.7% -140 +10.5% WIN
Portland 58, San Diego 71 [13] San Diego 65.7% -135 +10.4% WIN
Creighton 71, DePaul 72 [1] DePaul 59.6% -115 +8.5% WIN
South Dakota 71, North Dakota 72 [1] South Dakota 58.5% -115 +7.4% LOSS
Furman 64, Mercer 69 [5] Mercer 63.9% -145 +6.8% WIN
Providence 80, Seton Hall 87 [7] Seton Hall 70.1% -195 +6.4% WIN
Eastern Kentucky 61, Lipscomb 75 [14] Lipscomb 77.5% -290 +5.8% WIN
Boston College 64, Stanford 70 [6] Boston College 50.5% +114 +5.7% LOSS
Georgia Southern 65, App State 81 [16] App State 60.6% -135 +5.4% WIN
Bellarmine 76, Central Arkansas 84 [8] Central Arkansas 79.4% -340 +5.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$146
ROI
72.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Old Dominion 79, Marshall 81 [2] Marshall 66.7% -140 +10.5% WIN
Portland 58, San Diego 71 [13] San Diego 65.7% -135 +10.4% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan @ Northwestern Northwestern 20.7% +800 +10.2% LOSS
Florida @ Georgia Georgia 34.7% +375 +14.6% LOSS
UConn @ Butler Butler 22.8% +525 +7.5% LOSS