Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-23
All Games Summary
Total Picks
9
Final results
9
Correct picks
4
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
44.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (9)
Stephen F. Austin (25-3) 73, New Orleans (14-15) 77 [4] 73-78 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 153.2		 Stephen F. Austin (89.1%)
Mississippi Valley State (2-26) 62, Grambling (11-15) 83 [21] 60-77 ✓ MAE: 3.7
O/U: 137.0		 Grambling (83.7%)
Houston #5 (23-4) 56, Kansas #14 (20-7) 69 [13] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 138.0		 Houston (79.0%)
Lamar (12-16) 52, Nicholls (11-17) 53 [1] 73-73 ✗ MAE: 20.2
O/U: 143.8		 Lamar (71.1%)
SE Louisiana (8-20) 68, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (14-14) 73 [5] 62-68 ✓ MAE: 5.9
O/U: 130.5		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%)
East Texas A&M (11-18) 68, Houston Christian (10-18) 69 [1] 68-69 ✓ MAE: 1.0
O/U: 138.5		 Houston Christian (59.5%) DOG
Incarnate Word (11-17) 49, Northwestern State (9-19) 54 [5] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 17.6
O/U: 138.2		 Incarnate Word (56.4%) DOG
UT Rio Grande Valley (16-12) 68, McNeese (23-5) 75 [7] 71-75 ✓ MAE: 1.7
O/U: 147.0		 UT Rio Grande Valley (55.3%) DOG
Louisville #24 (20-7) 74, North Carolina #18 (21-6) 77 [3] 79-73 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 162.5		 North Carolina (53.8%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
9
Final results
9
Correct picks
4
Incorrect picks
5
Pending
0
Accuracy
44.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
68.8%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2432
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
9
ML Win Rate
44.4%
ML Profit
$-181
ML ROI
-20.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$50
ROI
12.5%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
3
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-83
ROI
-11.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$17
ROI
2.8%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
1
ATS Wins
1
ATS Losses
0
ATS Win Rate
100.0%
Spread Profit
$91
Spread ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
49.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3885
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
3
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$82
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-9
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-200
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73 @ SE Louisiana 68 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (71.1%) Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -1.8 +8.6 +6.8 -5.0 COVERED
Houston #5 56 @ Kansas #14 69 Houston (79.0%) Houston -1.8 +7.2 +5.4 +13.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$50
ROI
12.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
East Texas A&M 68, Houston Christian 69 [1] Houston Christian 59.5% +130 +17.4% WIN
Incarnate Word 49, Northwestern State 54 [5] Incarnate Word 56.4% +125 +13.5% LOSS
UT Rio Grande Valley 68, McNeese 75 [7] UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% +500 +39.4% LOSS
Louisville 74, North Carolina 77 [3] North Carolina 53.8% +120 +10.0% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Houston 56, Kansas 69 [13] Houston 79.0% -140 +22.8% LOSS
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
7
Wins
3
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-83
ROI
-11.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UT Rio Grande Valley 68, McNeese 75 [7] UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% +500 +39.4% LOSS
Houston 56, Kansas 69 [13] Houston 79.0% -140 +22.8% LOSS
East Texas A&M 68, Houston Christian 69 [1] Houston Christian 59.5% +130 +17.4% WIN
Incarnate Word 49, Northwestern State 54 [5] Incarnate Word 56.4% +125 +13.5% LOSS
SE Louisiana 68, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73 [5] Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% -150 +13.1% WIN
Louisville 74, North Carolina 77 [3] North Carolina 53.8% +120 +10.0% WIN
Lamar 52, Nicholls 53 [1] Lamar 71.1% -175 +9.7% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
6
Wins
3
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$17
ROI
2.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UT Rio Grande Valley 68, McNeese 75 [7] UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% +500 +39.4% LOSS
Houston 56, Kansas 69 [13] Houston 79.0% -140 +22.8% LOSS
East Texas A&M 68, Houston Christian 69 [1] Houston Christian 59.5% +130 +17.4% WIN
Incarnate Word 49, Northwestern State 54 [5] Incarnate Word 56.4% +125 +13.5% LOSS
SE Louisiana 68, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 73 [5] Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 71.1% -150 +13.1% WIN
Louisville 74, North Carolina 77 [3] North Carolina 53.8% +120 +10.0% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-70
ROI
-23.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UT Rio Grande Valley @ McNeese UT Rio Grande Valley 55.3% +500 +39.4% LOSS
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling Mississippi Valley State 16.3% +1200 +9.0% LOSS
Houston Christian @ East Texas A&M Houston Christian 59.5% +130 +17.4% WIN