Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-24
All Games Summary
Total Picks
36
Final results
36
Correct picks
20
Incorrect picks
16
Pending
0
Accuracy
55.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (36)
BYU #19 (20-7) 84, UCF (19-7) 97 [13] 76-80 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET UNDER 162.5		 BYU (90.4%)
Buffalo (16-11) 85, Akron (22-5) 99 [14] 77-85 ✗ MAE: 10.9
BET OVER 157.2		 Akron (90.1%)
Bowling Green (16-12) 79, Western Michigan (9-18) 88 [9] 71-76 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 149.8		 Bowling Green (87.4%)
Northern Illinois (9-17) 69, Toledo (14-13) 79 [10] 71-75 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET UNDER 149.8		 Toledo (87.2%)
Louisiana (10-19) 59, Troy (18-11) 78 [19] 65-67 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 134.5		 Troy (86.7%)
Notre Dame (12-15) 56, Duke #1 (25-2) 100 [44] 79-71 ✗ MAE: 18.1
BET OVER 139.8		 Duke (85.9%)
La Salle (8-19) 77, George Washington (15-12) 104 [27] 73-75 ✗ MAE: 16.5
O/U: 146.5		 George Washington (84.9%)
Georgetown (13-14) 60, Marquette (9-18) 76 [16] 74-70 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 150.8		 Georgetown (84.9%)
Utah (10-17) 59, Iowa State #4 (23-4) 75 [16] 79-75 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET OVER 144.5		 Iowa State (84.0%)
Saint Louis #23 (25-2) 62, Dayton (18-9) 77 [15] 77-82 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 156.2		 Saint Louis (84.0%)
Southern Indiana (7-21) 63, Morehead State (17-12) 64 [1] 69-67 ✓ MAE: 4.7
BET UNDER 142.5		 Morehead State (83.6%)
Minnesota (13-14) 67, Michigan #3 (25-2) 77 [10] 67-80 ✓ MAE: 1.8
O/U: 145.8		 Michigan (83.0%)
New Haven (13-15) 67, St. Francis (PA) (6-22) 73 [6] 64-64 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 141.5		 New Haven (81.5%)
New Mexico (21-6) 60, Nevada (18-9) 67 [7] 73-73 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 151.5		 New Mexico (80.9%) DOG
Auburn (15-12) 79, Oklahoma (13-14) 91 [12] 75-81 ✓ MAE: 6.9
O/U: 157.8		 Auburn (78.6%)
Wyoming (15-12) 62, Boise State (16-11) 72 [10] 73-73 ✓ MAE: 5.8
O/U: 147.0		 Boise State (76.5%)
Cincinnati (15-12) 68, Texas Tech #16 (20-7) 80 [12] 73-72 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 141.5		 Texas Tech (76.4%)
Arizona State (14-13) 78, TCU (17-10) 90 [12] 76-77 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET OVER 147.5		 TCU (76.1%)
NC State (19-8) 61, Virginia #11 (24-3) 90 [29] 79-78 ✗ MAE: 15.1
BET OVER 150.5		 Virginia (75.1%)
Southern Miss (15-14) 84, Arkansas State (18-11) 89 [5] 74-76 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 158.5		 Arkansas State (74.5%)
Air Force (3-24) 80, San José State (7-20) 86 [6] 64-63 ✗ MAE: 19.1
BET UNDER 143.0		 San José State (74.3%)
Massachusetts (15-13) 73, Ball State (8-19) 74 [1] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET OVER 140.8		 Massachusetts (72.8%)
Bradley (19-10) 86, UIC (16-13) 93 [7] 78-74 ✗ MAE: 13.4
BET OVER 142.2		 UIC (71.3%)
Georgia State (10-19) 71, Coastal Carolina (17-12) 76 [5] 73-70 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET OVER 141.2		 Georgia State (70.7%) DOG
Old Dominion (10-19) 88, Marshall (18-11) 97 [9] 73-75 ✗ MAE: 18.5
BET UNDER 159.2		 Marshall (70.2%)
USC (18-9) 62, UCLA (18-9) 81 [19] 73-74 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 150.5		 UCLA (63.8%)
West Virginia (16-11) 84, Oklahoma State (16-11) 91 [7] 74-68 ✗ MAE: 16.3
O/U: 141.8		 Oklahoma State (63.2%)
Fresno State (12-15) 70, Colorado State (17-10) 74 [4] 68-70 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 146.8		 Fresno State (62.1%) DOG
Indiana (17-10) 68, Northwestern (11-16) 72 [4] 70-73 ✓ MAE: 3.6
BET UNDER 145.8		 Northwestern (62.0%) DOG
Florida State (14-13) 73, Miami (21-6) 83 [10] 82-76 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET OVER 155.2		 Florida State (61.7%) DOG
Rutgers (11-16) 72, Washington (13-14) 79 [7] 77-70 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET OVER 140.5		 Rutgers (60.1%) DOG
Central Michigan (9-18) 81, Kent State (20-7) 83 [2] 76-76 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 156.5		 Central Michigan (55.8%) DOG
Tennessee #22 (20-7) 69, Missouri (18-9) 73 [4] 77-74 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET OVER 144.2		 Missouri (55.4%) DOG
Eastern Michigan (10-18) 64, Miami (OH) #21 (27-0) 74 [10] 87-74 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET OVER 153.5		 Eastern Michigan (53.3%) DOG
Baylor (14-13) 80, Arizona #2 (25-2) 87 [7] 84-73 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET OVER 154.5		 Baylor (53.1%) DOG
South Carolina (12-15) 63, Kentucky (17-10) 72 [9] 77-71 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 149.5		 South Carolina (52.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
36
Final results
36
Correct picks
20
Incorrect picks
16
Pending
0
Accuracy
55.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
36
Avg Confidence
73.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1817
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
33
ML Win Rate
54.5%
ML Profit
$-550
ML ROI
-16.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
9
Wins
2
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
22.2%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-230
ROI
-25.6%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-369
ROI
-73.8%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
21
Wins
7
Losses
14
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-691
ROI
-32.9%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
16
Wins
4
Losses
12
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-632
ROI
-39.5%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
4
ATS Wins
3
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
75.0%
Spread Profit
$173
Spread ROI
43.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+22.6%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
36
Avg Confidence
41.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2416
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
30
O/U Wins
19
O/U Losses
11
O/U Win Rate
63.3%
O/U Profit
$627
O/U ROI
20.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+10.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
11
Completed
11
Covered
5
Failed
6
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
45.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-146
ROI
-13.2%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
11
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
81.8%
O/U Profit
$618
O/U ROI
56.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+29.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Southern Indiana 63 @ Morehead State 64 Morehead State (83.6%) Morehead State -8.2 +9.8 -1.5 +1.0 FAILED
Wyoming 62 @ Boise State 72 Boise State (76.5%) Boise State -8.5 +9.0 -0.5 +10.0 COVERED
George Washington 104 @ La Salle 77 George Washington (84.9%) George Washington -6.8 +9.0 +2.2 -27.0 COVERED
Saint Louis #23 62 @ Dayton 77 Saint Louis (84.0%) Saint Louis -3.8 +8.6 +4.9 +15.0 FAILED
Massachusetts 73 @ Ball State 74 Massachusetts (72.8%) Massachusetts -5.0 +8.3 +3.3 +1.0 FAILED
Marquette 76 @ Georgetown 60 Georgetown (84.9%) Georgetown -3.5 +7.9 -4.4 -16.0 FAILED
Auburn 79 @ Oklahoma 91 Auburn (78.6%) Auburn -2.5 +7.9 +5.4 +12.0 FAILED
NC State 61 @ Virginia #11 90 Virginia (75.1%) Virginia -6.5 +7.8 -1.3 +29.0 COVERED
St. Francis (PA) 73 @ New Haven 67 New Haven (81.5%) New Haven -7.5 +7.6 -0.1 -6.0 FAILED
Cincinnati 68 @ Texas Tech #16 80 Texas Tech (76.4%) Texas Tech -6.8 +7.4 -0.7 +12.0 COVERED
Bradley 86 @ UIC 93 UIC (71.3%) UIC -3.2 +6.4 -3.2 +7.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
9
Wins
2
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
22.2%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-230
ROI
-25.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Fresno State 70, Colorado State 74 [4] Fresno State 62.1% +320 +39.4% LOSS
Indiana 68, Northwestern 72 [4] Northwestern 62.0% +330 +39.8% WIN
Florida State 73, Miami 83 [10] Florida State 61.7% +125 +18.8% LOSS
Rutgers 72, Washington 79 [7] Rutgers 60.1% +175 +25.2% LOSS
Central Michigan 81, Kent State 83 [2] Central Michigan 55.8% +525 +40.6% LOSS
Tennessee 69, Missouri 73 [4] Missouri 55.4% +140 +15.3% WIN
Eastern Michigan 64, Miami (OH) 74 [10] Eastern Michigan 53.3% +425 +35.1% LOSS
Baylor 80, Arizona 87 [7] Baylor 53.1% +340 +31.4% LOSS
South Carolina 63, Kentucky 72 [9] South Carolina 52.7% +260 +26.0% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
5
Wins
1
Losses
4
Pending
0
Win Rate
20.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-369
ROI
-73.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
La Salle 77, George Washington 104 [27] George Washington 84.9% -320 +12.2% WIN
Georgetown 60, Marquette 76 [16] Georgetown 84.9% -165 +25.0% LOSS
Saint Louis 62, Dayton 77 [15] Saint Louis 84.0% -220 +18.2% LOSS
New Mexico 60, Nevada 67 [7] New Mexico 80.9% -115 +29.9% LOSS
Auburn 79, Oklahoma 91 [12] Auburn 78.6% -125 +25.3% LOSS
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
21
Wins
7
Losses
14
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-691
ROI
-32.9%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Central Michigan 81, Kent State 83 [2] Central Michigan 55.8% +525 +40.6% LOSS
Indiana 68, Northwestern 72 [4] Northwestern 62.0% +330 +39.8% WIN
Fresno State 70, Colorado State 74 [4] Fresno State 62.1% +320 +39.4% LOSS
Eastern Michigan 64, Miami (OH) 74 [10] Eastern Michigan 53.3% +425 +35.1% LOSS
Baylor 80, Arizona 87 [7] Baylor 53.1% +340 +31.4% LOSS
New Mexico 60, Nevada 67 [7] New Mexico 80.9% -115 +29.9% LOSS
South Carolina 63, Kentucky 72 [9] South Carolina 52.7% +260 +26.0% LOSS
Auburn 79, Oklahoma 91 [12] Auburn 78.6% -125 +25.3% LOSS
Rutgers 72, Washington 79 [7] Rutgers 60.1% +175 +25.2% LOSS
Georgetown 60, Marquette 76 [16] Georgetown 84.9% -165 +25.0% LOSS
Georgia State 71, Coastal Carolina 76 [5] Georgia State 70.7% -115 +19.7% LOSS
Florida State 73, Miami 83 [10] Florida State 61.7% +125 +18.8% LOSS
Saint Louis 62, Dayton 77 [15] Saint Louis 84.0% -220 +18.2% LOSS
Tennessee 69, Missouri 73 [4] Missouri 55.4% +140 +15.3% WIN
Bradley 86, UIC 93 [7] UIC 71.3% -150 +13.3% WIN
La Salle 77, George Washington 104 [27] George Washington 84.9% -320 +12.2% WIN
West Virginia 84, Oklahoma State 91 [7] Oklahoma State 63.2% -130 +8.9% WIN
Massachusetts 73, Ball State 74 [1] Massachusetts 72.8% -210 +7.7% LOSS
New Haven 67, St. Francis (PA) 73 [6] New Haven 81.5% -340 +7.4% LOSS
Southern Indiana 63, Morehead State 64 [1] Morehead State 83.6% -392 +7.4% WIN
NC State 61, Virginia 90 [29] Virginia 75.1% -260 +5.6% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
16
Wins
4
Losses
12
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-632
ROI
-39.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Central Michigan 81, Kent State 83 [2] Central Michigan 55.8% +525 +40.6% LOSS
Indiana 68, Northwestern 72 [4] Northwestern 62.0% +330 +39.8% WIN
Fresno State 70, Colorado State 74 [4] Fresno State 62.1% +320 +39.4% LOSS
Eastern Michigan 64, Miami (OH) 74 [10] Eastern Michigan 53.3% +425 +35.1% LOSS
Baylor 80, Arizona 87 [7] Baylor 53.1% +340 +31.4% LOSS
New Mexico 60, Nevada 67 [7] New Mexico 80.9% -115 +29.9% LOSS
South Carolina 63, Kentucky 72 [9] South Carolina 52.7% +260 +26.0% LOSS
Auburn 79, Oklahoma 91 [12] Auburn 78.6% -125 +25.3% LOSS
Rutgers 72, Washington 79 [7] Rutgers 60.1% +175 +25.2% LOSS
Georgetown 60, Marquette 76 [16] Georgetown 84.9% -165 +25.0% LOSS
Georgia State 71, Coastal Carolina 76 [5] Georgia State 70.7% -115 +19.7% LOSS
Florida State 73, Miami 83 [10] Florida State 61.7% +125 +18.8% LOSS
Saint Louis 62, Dayton 77 [15] Saint Louis 84.0% -220 +18.2% LOSS
Tennessee 69, Missouri 73 [4] Missouri 55.4% +140 +15.3% WIN
Bradley 86, UIC 93 [7] UIC 71.3% -150 +13.3% WIN
La Salle 77, George Washington 104 [27] George Washington 84.9% -320 +12.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Minnesota @ Michigan Minnesota 17.0% +2500 +13.2% LOSS
Central Michigan @ Kent State Central Michigan 55.8% +525 +40.6% LOSS
Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan Eastern Michigan 53.3% +425 +35.1% LOSS