November 2025
Strategy: Only bet moneyline when picking an underdog (positive odds)
Performance: PROFITABLE - 40.2% win rate with +13.2% ROI. High payouts offset losses.
Strategy: Only bet ML when confidence ≥ 75% AND our edge vs Vegas ≥ 10%
Performance: HIGHLY PROFITABLE - 68.9% win rate with +16.0% ROI. Selective but very effective.
Strategy: Bet ML when our edge vs Vegas ≥ 5% (any confidence level)
Performance: PROFITABLE - 55.2% win rate with +7.4% ROI. Balanced volume and returns.
Volume: Moderate bet frequency - more selective than all ML, but still good action.
Strategy: Bet ML when our edge vs Vegas ≥ 10% (any confidence level)
Performance: HIGHLY PROFITABLE - 50.0% win rate with +9.4% ROI. Maximum expected value.
Volume: Lower bet frequency but highest ROI - best risk/reward ratio.
ATS Performance: BELOW BREAKEVEN - Winning 52.2% of spread bets. Need to improve by 0.2 percentage points.
SportsLine Benchmark: 60-70% ATS on top picks | Your Rate: 52.2%