January 2026
Strategy: Only bet moneyline when picking an underdog (positive odds)
Performance: LOSING - 38.7% win rate with -112.4% ROI.
Strategy: Only bet ML when confidence ≥ 75% AND our edge vs Vegas ≥ 10%
Performance: LOSING - 57.1% win rate with -112.4% ROI.
Strategy: Bet ML when our edge vs Vegas ≥ 5% (any confidence level)
Performance: LOSING - 50.0% win rate with -91.2% ROI.
Volume: Moderate bet frequency - more selective than all ML, but still good action.
Strategy: Bet ML when our edge vs Vegas ≥ 10% (any confidence level)
Performance: LOSING - 34.5% win rate with -254.9% ROI.
Volume: Lower bet frequency but highest ROI - best risk/reward ratio.
ATS Performance: BELOW BREAKEVEN - Winning 49.4% of spread bets. Need to improve by 3.0 percentage points.
SportsLine Benchmark: 60-70% ATS on top picks | Your Rate: 49.4%