UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
May 16, 2026 · Post-event pick results, method calls, and accuracy.
Record
3–8
27.3% hit rate
Strong/Value
0–0
no Strong/Value picks this card
Net units
—
no bets this card
Fights graded
11
picks scored
Best call
Khaos Williams
62.9% · KO/TKO R1 ✓
Pick Results 11 fights
| Result | Pick | Prob | Conf | Tier | Winner | Method | Rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIT |  Nicolle Caliari |
56.3% | LOW | LEAN | Nicolle Caliari |
SUB Arm Triangle | 3 |
| MISS |  Andre Petroski |
59.5% | LOW | LEAN |  Cody Brundage |
KO/TKO Punches | 2 |
| MISS |  Jacqueline Cavalcanti |
63.7% | MED | LEAN |  Ketlen Vieira |
U-DEC | 3 |
| MISS |  Tuco Tokkos |
55.0% | LOW | LEAN |  Ivan Erslan |
U-DEC | 3 |
| MISS |  Timmy Cuamba |
53.0% | LOW | LEAN | BSBenardo Sopaj | SUB Rear Naked Choke | 2 |
| HIT |  Luis Gurule |
53.8% | LOW | LEAN | Luis Gurule |
U-DEC | 3 |
| MISS |  Polyana Viana |
50.4% | LOW | LEAN |  Alice Ardelean |
SUB Calf Slicer | 2 |
| MISS |  Melquizael Costa |
51.7% | LOW | LEAN |  Arnold Allen |
U-DEC | 5 |
| HIT |  Khaos Williams |
62.9% | MED | LEAN | Khaos Williams |
KO/TKO Punches | 1 |
| MISS |  Malcolm Wellmaker |
54.8% | LOW | LEAN |  Juan Diaz |
SUB Rear Naked Choke | 2 |
| MISS |  Daniel Santos |
58.5% | LOW | LEAN |  Dooho Choi |
KO/TKO Punch | 2 |
How we grade. Each pick is the model's pre-fight favorite. HIT means our picked fighter won; the Method column shows the actual finish. Confidence tiers come from walk-forward ROI thresholds, so a card of only Lean picks counts none toward the betting ledger.