UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
June 6, 2026 · Post-event pick results, method calls, and accuracy.
Record
9–3
75.0% hit rate
Strong/Value
1–0
100.0% on Strong/Value picks
Net units
+0.96u
1 Strong/Value bet
Fights graded
12
picks scored
Best call
Bryce Mitchell
69.3% · Submission R3 ✓
Pick Results 12 fights
| Result | Pick | Prob | Conf | Tier | Winner | Method | Rd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIT |  Edgar Chairez |
63.2% | MED | LEAN | Edgar Chairez |
Submission | 1 |
| HIT |  Brendan Allen |
65.1% | MED | LEAN | Brendan Allen |
Decision | 3 |
| HIT |  Joanderson Brito |
51.1% | LOW | LEAN | Joanderson Brito |
Submission | 1 |
| HIT |  Imanol Rodriguez |
65.6% | MED | LEAN | Imanol Rodriguez |
KO/TKO | 1 |
| MISS |  Fares Ziam |
59.2% | LOW | LEAN |  Tom Nolan |
Decision | 3 |
| HIT |  Gabriel Bonfim |
67.2% | MED | VALUE1u | Gabriel Bonfim |
Decision | 5 |
| HIT |  Bryce Mitchell |
69.3% | MED | LEAN | Bryce Mitchell |
Submission | 3 |
| HIT |  Chelsea Chandler |
54.3% | LOW | LEAN | Chelsea Chandler |
Submission | 1 |
| HIT |  Jeisla Chaves |
63.0% | MED | LEAN | Jeisla Chaves |
Decision | 3 |
| HIT |  Ketlen Souza |
59.8% | LOW | LEAN | Ketlen Souza |
KO/TKO | 1 |
| MISS | JWJakub Wiklacz | 71.0% | HIGH | LEAN |  Marcus McGhee |
Decision | 3 |
| MISS |  Billy Elekana |
51.1% | LOW | LEAN |  Iwo Baraniewski |
KO/TKO | 1 |
How we grade. Each pick is the model's pre-fight favorite. HIT means our picked fighter won; the Method column shows the actual finish. Confidence tiers come from walk-forward ROI thresholds, so a card of only Lean picks counts none toward the betting ledger.