NFL Moneyline · Members
Beat the closing line.
Every week.
Vegas's closing number is the toughest line to beat — it's where the sharp money lands. Our model has beaten it out-of-sample in every season we've tested. Membership is that edge, delivered before kickoff.
No card required · live billing opens with the 2026 season
+11.1%
Pooled out-of-sample ROI4 seasons · 2022–2025
+0.104
Mean CLV per betpositive every season
4/4
Seasons beating the close457 graded bets
What you actually get
Not "lock of the day" hype. The model's real per-game math, sized like a pro, and an honest scoreboard.
The full weekly slate
Every qualifying moneyline edge — not one teaser. The single market that cleared the bar out-of-sample, delivered before kickoff.
The model's real numbers
Per-game win probability, edge vs the closing line, and the model's fair price on every pick. The same numbers it bets on.
Edge-scaled staking
Stake sizes that scale with the edge at the bet-time price — and an honest Pass when the price kills the value. No flat-betting dead chalk.
Graded on CLV
Every pick frozen at the bet-time line and graded against the close. Closing-line value is the overfit-resistant test — not a lucky-week win streak.
The whole record — losses included
Full track-record access, the down season shown in plain sight. If we hid our losers you should walk away.
Members-only edge
The slate is private. Free visitors see a locked board; members get the picks the moment the line is frozen.
Get the slate the moment the line freezes.
Free visitors see a locked board. Members get every pick — model probability, edge, fair price and stake — before the market moves.
Live billing opens with the 2026 season. Every pick graded on CLV.
The figures shown are out-of-sample backtests, bet-weighted across all 4 tested seasons (the down season included), pulled from the committed track record. Live 2026 tracking begins in September.