Model Accuracy — 2026 Season

Model Accuracy

7,059 picks · 112 days · Jul 13, 2026

Overall

60.6%

4,277 / 7,059

High

73.8%

1,970–698

Medium

60.7%

1,076–696

Low

47.0%

1,231–1,388

Last 14d

58.6%

34–24

Best Day

78.8%

Feb 18 · 26–7

Max Streak

21

high-conf picks

vs Home Baseline

+2.1

home 58.5%

Rolling 14-Day Accuracy

overall · high-conf

By Confidence Tier

7,059 picks

High≥70%

73.8%

1,970–698 of 2,668

Medium60–70

60.7%

1,076–696 of 1,772

Low<60

47.0%

1,231–1,388 of 2,619

Daily Accuracy

112 slates · season avg 60.6%

Baselines

edge vs 50%

Strategy	Record	Acc	+/-
Lab Model	4,277–2,782	60.6%	+10.6
Higher season-end SRS (hindsight)	4,359–2,640	62.3%	+12.3
Always home team	4,132–2,927	58.5%	+8.5
Coin flip	—	50.0%	—

Notable Calls

best · worst

Best

Ark.-Pine Bluff beat Alabama St. 1–26

Apr 4
conf 55%

Worst

Queens (NC) beat Southern Ill. 2–0

Feb 20
conf 98.3%

Sharpest Calls by Team

min 25 g

Team	Record	Acc
Alcorn	30–4	88.2%
UCLA	44–8	84.6%
Mississippi Val.	32–6	84.2%
Northwestern	33–7	82.5%
VMI	37–8	82.2%

Softest Calls by Team

min 25 g

Team	Record	Acc
Geo. Washington	10–36	21.7%
Fla. Gulf Coast	12–36	25.0%
Incarnate Word	11–30	26.8%
UT-Rio Grande Valley	13–35	27.1%
Seattle	12–30	28.6%

Daily Log

click date for slate

Date	Picks	Correct	Acc	High	Med	Low