Test Predictions Recap
2026-04-04
Latest Apr 2 Apr 1 Mar 29 Mar 28 Mar 27 Mar 26 Mar 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
4
Final results
4
Correct picks
1
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
25.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (4)
Arizona #2 (36-2) 73, Michigan #3 (35-3) 91 [18] Arizona (58.6%) DOG
Baylor (17-16) 69, Oklahoma (20-15) 82 [13] Baylor (57.2%)
Creighton (16-17) 70, West Virginia (19-14) 87 [17] Creighton (55.4%) DOG
Illinois #13 (28-8) 62, UConn #7 (33-5) 71 [9] UConn (52.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
4
Final results
4
Correct picks
1
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
25.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
4
Avg Confidence
55.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3090
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
25.0%
ML Profit
$$-176
ML ROI
-44.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$124
ROI
124.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-176
ROI
-44.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$124
ROI
124.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Illinois 62, UConn 71 [9] UConn 52.4% +124 +9.6% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
1
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-176
ROI
-44.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Illinois 62, UConn 71 [9] UConn 52.4% +124 +9.6% WIN
Baylor 69, Oklahoma 82 [13] Baylor 57.2% -102 +8.9% LOSS
Arizona 73, Michigan 91 [18] Arizona 58.6% -115 +6.9% LOSS
Creighton 70, West Virginia 87 [17] Creighton 55.4% -105 +6.5% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-76
ROI
-25.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Illinois @ UConn UConn 52.4% +124 +9.6% WIN
Oklahoma @ Baylor Baylor 57.2% -102 +8.9% LOSS
Michigan @ Arizona Arizona 58.6% -115 +6.9% LOSS
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