Championship Odds — 2026 NCAA Baseball

2026 NCAA Baseball — Championship Odds

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations · per-game tournament shrinkage · SEC/non-SEC rescaling to historical 70/30 split.

#	Team	Super Regional	CWS	Finals	Champion
1	Texas S6	100.0%	75.2%	28.1%	19.2%
2	Auburn S4	100.0%	68.0%	28.2%	17.3%
3	Georgia S3	100.0%	57.7%	21.6%	14.2%
4	Mississippi St. S14	100.0%	42.3%	14.4%	9.0%
5	North Carolina S5	100.0%	55.4%	19.2%	7.8%
6	Alabama S7	100.0%	71.9%	11.9%	5.7%
7	West Virginia S16	100.0%	60.6%	15.6%	5.7%
8	Oklahoma S2	100.0%	51.8%	6.7%	2.7%
9	Southern California S12	51.1%	20.2%	6.7%	2.6%
10	Lamar S12	48.9%	24.4%	6.2%	2.4%
11	Oregon S11	100.0%	24.8%	5.9%	2.3%
12	Kansas S15	100.0%	48.2%	6.6%	2.2%
13	Mississippi S13	25.3%	13.0%	3.3%	1.9%
14	Cal Poly S1	100.0%	39.4%	6.4%	1.7%
15	Troy S8	100.0%	71.5%	7.1%	1.6%
16	Northern Ill. S10	24.8%	12.3%	3.3%	1.4%
17	Arizona St. S13	44.7%	10.3%	2.8%	0.9%
18	Nebraska S13	30.0%	8.6%	2.5%	0.8%
19	Coastal Carolina S10	31.5%	9.7%	1.1%	0.3%
20	Little Rock S9	100.0%	28.5%	2.0%	0.2%
21	St. John's (NY) S10	43.7%	6.0%	0.4%	0.1%
22	Milwaukee S4	—	—	—	—
23	UCF S4	—	—	—	—
24	NC State S4	—	—	—	—
25	UIC S2	—	—	—	—
26	The Citadel S2	—	—	—	—
27	Liberty S3	—	—	—	—
28	Boston College S3	—	—	—	—
29	Saint Mary's (CA) S1	—	—	—	—
30	Georgia Tech S2	—	—	—	—
31	Virginia Tech S1	—	—	—	—
32	UCLA S1	—	—	—	—
33	Rider S8	—	—	—	—
34	Miami (FL) S8	—	—	—	—
35	Florida S8	—	—	—	—
36	Alabama St. S7	—	—	—	—
37	Oklahoma St. S7	—	—	—	—
38	USC Upstate S7	—	—	—	—
39	Tarleton St. S6	—	—	—	—
40	Holy Cross S6	—	—	—	—
41	Tennessee S5	—	—	—	—
42	East Carolina S5	—	—	—	—
43	UC Santa Barbara S6	—	—	—	—
44	VCU S5	—	—	—	—
45	LIU S3	—	—	—	—
46	Southern Miss. S9	—	—	—	—
47	Florida St. S10	—	—	—	—
48	Jacksonville St. S9	—	—	—	—
49	Texas St. S12	—	—	—	—
50	Texas A&M S12	—	—	—	—
51	Washington St. S11	—	—	—	—
52	Yale S11	—	—	—	—
53	Oregon St. S11	—	—	—	—
54	Virginia S9	—	—	—	—
55	South Dakota St. S13	—	—	—	—
56	Cincinnati S14	—	—	—	—
57	Lipscomb S14	—	—	—	—
58	Louisiana S14	—	—	—	—
59	Missouri St. S15	—	—	—	—
60	Arkansas S15	—	—	—	—
61	Northeastern S15	—	—	—	—
62	Wake Forest S16	—	—	—	—
63	Kentucky S16	—	—	—	—
64	Binghamton S16	—	—	—	—

Team

Super Regional

CWS

Finals

Champion

Texas S6

100.0%

75.2%

28.1%

19.2%

Auburn S4

100.0%

68.0%

28.2%

17.3%

Georgia S3

100.0%

57.7%

21.6%

14.2%

Mississippi St. S14

100.0%

42.3%

14.4%

9.0%

North Carolina S5

100.0%

55.4%

19.2%

7.8%

Alabama S7

100.0%

71.9%

11.9%

5.7%

West Virginia S16

100.0%

60.6%

15.6%

5.7%

Oklahoma S2

100.0%

51.8%

6.7%

2.7%

Southern California S12

51.1%

20.2%

6.7%

2.6%

Lamar S12

48.9%

24.4%

6.2%

2.4%

Oregon S11

100.0%

24.8%

5.9%

2.3%

Kansas S15

100.0%

48.2%

6.6%

2.2%

Mississippi S13

25.3%

13.0%

3.3%

1.9%

Cal Poly S1

100.0%

39.4%

6.4%

1.7%

Troy S8

100.0%

71.5%

7.1%

1.6%

Northern Ill. S10

24.8%

12.3%

3.3%

1.4%

Arizona St. S13

44.7%

10.3%

2.8%

0.9%

Nebraska S13

30.0%

8.6%

2.5%

0.8%

Coastal Carolina S10

31.5%

9.7%

1.1%

0.3%

Little Rock S9

100.0%

28.5%

2.0%

0.2%

St. John's (NY) S10

43.7%

6.0%

0.4%

0.1%

Milwaukee S4

—

UCF S4

—

NC State S4

—

UIC S2

—

The Citadel S2

—

Liberty S3

—

Boston College S3

—

Saint Mary's (CA) S1

—

Georgia Tech S2

—

Virginia Tech S1

—

UCLA S1

—

Rider S8

—

Miami (FL) S8

—

Florida S8

—

Alabama St. S7

—

Oklahoma St. S7

—

USC Upstate S7

—

Tarleton St. S6

—

Holy Cross S6

—

Tennessee S5

—

East Carolina S5

—

UC Santa Barbara S6

—

VCU S5

—

LIU S3

—

Southern Miss. S9

—

Florida St. S10

—

Jacksonville St. S9

—

Texas St. S12

—

Texas A&M S12

—

Washington St. S11

—

Yale S11

—

Oregon St. S11

—

Virginia S9

—

South Dakota St. S13

—

Cincinnati S14

—

Lipscomb S14

—

Louisiana S14

—

Missouri St. S15

—

Arkansas S15

—

Northeastern S15

—

Wake Forest S16

—

Kentucky S16

—

Binghamton S16

—

What's modeled / what isn't:

Each game's win probability comes from the trained XGBoost (143 features, walk-forward eval ~65% backtest), then we Monte Carlo every regional (double-elim, host HFA), super regional (best-of-3 at higher-seed regional), CWS bracket play (double-elim, neutral), and CWS finals (best-of-3, neutral).
Not modeled: probable-pitcher matchups (SP1 vs SP3 starts), bullpen depletion across days, fatigue, momentum within a series, weather.
Best-of-3 series modeled as independent games — close enough but no series-specific edges.
Top seed caps around 18-22% in any modern year's MCWS — chalk wins more often than upsets, but variance is high.

The Lab Analytics|College Baseball

2026 NCAA Baseball — Championship Odds