The Lab Analytics|College Baseball

2026
2026 College World Series · Bracket One · Game 5
vs
Troy 37-30
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET · Charles Schwab Field, Omaha
West Virginia 64%36% Troy

No. 19 West Virginia (44-15) meet No. 45 Troy (37-30) at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha in an elimination game. West Virginia hold the edge on both sides of the ball — 7.8 runs per game and a 3.54 team ERA. Our model makes West Virginia the favorite at 64%, with tournament-calibrated probabilities from 10,000 bracket simulations.

Road to Omaha

Regionals · 4-1
W 10-1 vs Binghamton
L 9-11 vs Kentucky
W 10-5 vs Wake Forest
W 11-9 vs Kentucky
W 6-5 vs Kentucky
Super Regional · 2-0
W 12-2 vs Cal Poly
W 17-1 vs Cal Poly
Regionals · 4-1
L 5-10 vs Miami (FL)
W 15-7 vs Rider
W 9-6 vs Miami (FL)
W 16-11 vs Florida
W 10-2 vs Florida
Super Regional · 2-0
W 12-2 vs Little Rock
W 7-2 vs Little Rock

Team Comparison

West VirginiaTroy
#19Power Rank#45
44-15Record37-30
Big 12 22-9ConferenceSun Belt 18-14
+5.65SRS+3.23
7.8Runs / Game7.1
3.54Team ERA5.46
0.757Team wOBA0.779
1.25WHIP1.54
9.1K/98.7
473Home Runs721
0.980Fielding %0.975
8-2Last 107-3
5-2Neutral Sites6-4
13-9vs SRS Top 5010-14

Players to Watch

Top Hitter
Gavin Kelly
0.375 AVG · 1.174 OPS · 17 HR
Power
Sean Smith
10 HR · 0.945 OPS
Ace
Maxx YehlP
9-3 · 2.13 ERA · 112 K
Bullpen Leader
David PerezP
6 SV · 5.00 ERA · 10.5 K/9
Top Hitter
Jimmy Janicki
0.344 AVG · 1.084 OPS · 21 HR
Power
Blake Cavill
14 HR · 0.925 OPS
Ace
Hayden SmithP
4-0 · 3.24 ERA · 30 K
Bullpen Leader
Dylan AlonsoP
7 SV · 4.63 ERA · 10.7 K/9

2026 Head-to-Head

06-12-2026Troy 5, West Virginia 7

Common Opponents

OpponentWest VirginiaTroy
MarylandW 3/10W 3/6 · L 3/7 · L 3/8
MarshallW 3/24 · W 4/8 · W 5/5L 4/24 · W 4/25 · W 4/26
Ga. SouthernW 2/13 · W 2/14 · W 2/14L 3/27 · L 3/28 · W 3/29