Miami
21-6 · SRS -4.0
@
Florida State
14-13 · SRS +3.3
Model pick · straight up
Florida StateMiami 38%Florida State 62%
Confidence
62%
Predicted score
82–76
Margin (home)
-5.9
Total (line 155.2)
158 · OVER
Moneylines
-145 / +125
ML value edge
+19%
⚠ SIGNAL CONFLICT: 3/4 metrics favor Miami, but model picks Florida State
Season ProfileMiami · Florida State
78%
Win %
52%
-4.0
SRS
+3.3
+1.0
Schedule (opp SRS)
+2.6
+17.3
Net Efficiency
+3.1
OffenseMiami · Florida State
82.9
Points / game
80.0
119.5
Offensive rating
111.3
55.8%
eFG%
51.1%
33.8%
3P%
32.2%
68.0%
FT%
71.8%
69.2
Pace
71.8
Defense & Ball ControlMiami · Florida State
70.5
Opp points / game
77.7
102.3
Defensive rating
108.1
51.3%
Opp eFG%
51.8%
16.2
Turnover ratio
15.5
32.2%
Off. rebound %
32.8%
38.5%
FT rate
35.7%
Recent FormMiami · Florida State
+1.9
Last-10 margin
+4.4
74.7
Last-10 PPG
74.6
80%
Last-5 win %
80%
-1
Win streak
3
50%
Close-game win %
44%
3
Days rest
3
Head to Headlast 5 meetings
Jan 21, 2026Florida State @ Miami65–63Florida State
Feb 19, 2025Miami @ Florida State66–74Florida State
Jan 08, 2025Florida State @ Miami80–65Florida State
Mar 09, 2024Miami @ Florida State75–83Florida State
Jan 17, 2024Florida State @ Miami84–75Florida State
Team stats are the pre-game rolling numbers the model saw at each
team's most recent game — season-to-date, no future information. Straight-up prediction only;
against-the-spread picks live on the ATS card.