NCAA Championship Odds 2026-27 (Preseason)

NCAA Championship Odds

2026-27 Preseason Projections

Updated July 17, 2026

Preseason baseline built from last season's final team ratings — not yet adjusted for off-season roster turnover (transfers, graduations, NBA Draft). Projections sharpen once 2026-27 games are played.

Favorite

Arizona

Odds

+275

Probability

26.6%

Projected Seed

61 teams

Rank	Team	Championship Probability	Implied Odds	Power
1 — —	(1) E Arizona 32-2	26.65%	+275	77.5
2 — —	(1) M Florida 26-7	10.18%	+882	64.4
3 — —	(1) S Michigan 31-3	9.37%	+967	76.6
4 — —	(2) E Michigan State 25-7	9.15%	+992	61.2
5 — —	(3) E Illinois 24-8	6.66%	+1401	61.2
6 — —	(1) W Duke 32-2	4.43%	+2157	77.2
7 — —	(4) E Virginia 29-5	3.90%	+2464	59.5
8 — —	(5) E Arkansas 26-8	3.40%	+2841	58.8
9 — —	(2) S Purdue 27-8	3.21%	+3015	62.5
10 — —	(2) M UConn 29-5	2.41%	+4049	62.7
11 — —	(6) E BYU 23-11	2.02%	+4850	54.5
12 — —	(3) S Alabama 23-9	1.78%	+5517	60.5
13 — —	(3) M Gonzaga 30-3	1.70%	+5782	60.3
14 — —	(4) S St. John's 28-6	1.43%	+6893	59.6
15 — —	(6) S Georgia 22-10	1.06%	+9333	55.0
16 — —	(3) W Iowa State 27-7	1.01%	+9800	60.8
17 — —	(4) M Nebraska 26-6	0.93%	+10652	59.6
18 — —	(6) M Tennessee 22-11	0.87%	+11394	57.7
19 — —	(7) E TCU 22-11	0.76%	+13057	54.4
20 — —	(4) W Vanderbilt 26-8	0.71%	+13984	59.5
21 — —	(2) W Houston 28-6	0.70%	+14185	62.2
22 — —	(8) S Miami 25-8	0.59%	+16849	53.8
23 — —	(8) E Clemson 24-10	0.57%	+17443	52.6
24 — —	(5) M Kansas 23-10	0.53%	+18767	58.1
25 — —	(13) E Utah State 28-6	0.51%	+19507	52.2
26 — —	(7) M North Carolina 24-8	0.48%	+20733	54.1
27 — —	(8) M Louisville 23-10	0.47%	+21176	54.0
28 — —	(5) S Wisconsin 24-10	0.43%	+23155	58.4
29 — —	(7) S Ohio State 21-12	0.35%	+28471	54.2
30 — —	(10) S Texas 18-14	0.34%	+29311	51.5
31 — —	(9) E Villanova 24-8	0.31%	+32158	52.6
32 — —	(14) E Yale 24-6	0.31%	+32158	43.0
33 — —	(11) E Ole Miss 15-20	0.25%	+39900	50.5
34 — —	(12) M Missouri 20-12	0.24%	+41566	49.7
35 — —	(9) M Oklahoma 19-15	0.18%	+55455	52.0
36 — —	(5) W Texas Tech 22-10	0.18%	+55455	58.5
37 — —	(10) M Texas A&M 21-11	0.17%	+58723	51.7
38 — —	(10) E UCF 21-11	0.17%	+58723	50.8
39 — —	(12) E San Diego State 22-11	0.16%	+62400	47.0
40 — —	(13) M Akron 29-5	0.16%	+62400	46.8
41 — —	(6) W Kentucky 21-13	0.15%	+66566	54.8
42 — —	(11) M SMU 20-13	0.13%	+76823	49.8
43 — —	(10) W Auburn 17-16	0.12%	+83233	51.4
44 — —	(15) S Utah Valley 25-8	0.11%	+90809	39.7
45 — —	(8) W UCLA 23-11	0.10%	+99900	53.3
46 — —	(14) W High Point 30-4	0.09%	+111011	44.9
47 — —	(14) M Belmont 26-6	0.09%	+111011	46.1
48 — —	(15) E UNC Wilmington 26-6	0.09%	+111011	41.3
49 — —	(16) M Wright State 23-11	0.06%	+166566	37.2
50 — —	(14) S McNeese 28-5	0.06%	+166566	45.2
51 — —	(11) W Iowa 21-12	0.04%	+249900	50.4
52 — —	(9) S NC State 20-13	0.04%	+249900	52.1
53 — —	(7) W Saint Mary's 27-5	0.04%	+249900	54.3
54 — —	(11) S Washington 16-17	0.04%	+249900	49.9
55 — —	(13) W Santa Clara 26-8	0.03%	+333233	48.4
56 — —	(12) S Northwestern 15-19	0.02%	+499900	49.3
57 — —	(15) M Navy 26-7	0.02%	+499900	37.2
58 — —	(9) W Stanford 20-12	0.01%	+999900	52.2
59 — —	(15) W UC Irvine 23-11	0.01%	+999900	40.8
60 — —	(16) E Troy 22-11	0.01%	+999900	34.9
61 — —	(13) S New Mexico 23-10	0.01%	+999900	47.0
62 — —	BUBBLE Saint Louis 28-5	Not in Tournament	--	50.6
63 — —	BUBBLE VCU 27-7	Not in Tournament	--	49.6
64 — —	BUBBLE Cincinnati 18-15	Not in Tournament	--	49.3
65 — —	BUBBLE Indiana 18-14	Not in Tournament	--	49.3
66 — —	BUBBLE Seton Hall 21-12	Not in Tournament	--	49.3
67 — —	BUBBLE Florida State 18-15	Not in Tournament	--	49.2
68 — —	BUBBLE Baylor 16-16	Not in Tournament	--	49.1
69 — —	BUBBLE Arizona State 17-16	Not in Tournament	--	49.1
70 — —	BUBBLE USC 18-14	Not in Tournament	--	48.5
71 — —	BUBBLE South Florida 25-8	Not in Tournament	--	48.3
72 — —	BUBBLE Wake Forest 17-16	Not in Tournament	--	48.3

Methodology: Championship probabilities are calculated by simulating the NCAA tournament 10,000 times using our XGBoost win/loss model (77% historical accuracy). Tournament seeds are projected based on current power rankings derived from 2026 season performance data. Probabilities reflect each team's likelihood of winning the national championship if the tournament started today.

Note: These projections will update weekly as the season progresses and more games are completed. Actual tournament seeding may differ based on Selection Committee decisions, conference tournament results, and automatic bids.

Total Contenders

Top 4 Combined

55.3%

Seeds in Top 10

Last updated: July 17, 2026 at 06:05 PM ET

How to read this bracket: This shows advancement probabilities for multiple teams in each round, not a single predicted bracket. Each matchup shows the most likely teams to compete at that stage, with their probability of reaching that round.

Both teams can advance: The percentages represent each team's chance of reaching that round based on 10,000 simulations. For example, if Michigan shows 76.7% for Round of 32 and Iowa shows 67.9%, both teams have a chance to advance from Round of 64.

Upsets ARE happening: In our simulations, lower seeds regularly upset favorites: • 8-seeds reach Sweet 16 ~28% of the time (expected: 18%) • 10-seeds reach Sweet 16 ~9% of the time (expected: <1%) • 16-seeds have upset 1-seeds 55 times out of 10,000 (0.5% chance - like UMBC!)

For a single predicted bracket with upsets, use the Cinderella Report or check round-by-round advancement probabilities.

East

Round of 64

Arizona84.4%

Troy15.6%

Clemson69.7%

Villanova30.3%

Arkansas80.6%

San Diego State19.4%

Virginia70.0%

Utah State30.0%

BYU80.6%

Ole Miss19.4%

Illinois71.5%

Yale28.5%

TCU80.0%

UCF20.1%

Michigan State78.9%

UNC Wilmington21.1%

Round of 32

Arizona81.0%

Clemson19.0%

Arkansas32.2%

Virginia67.8%

BYU24.8%

Illinois75.2%

TCU19.6%

Michigan State80.4%

Sweet 16

Arizona80.6%

Virginia19.4%

Illinois32.2%

Michigan State67.8%

Elite 8

Arizona80.1%

Michigan State19.9%

South

Round of 64

Michigan84.8%

Portland State15.2%

Miami79.7%

NC State20.3%

Wisconsin80.2%

Northwestern19.8%

St. John's80.3%

New Mexico19.7%

Georgia80.2%

Washington19.9%

Alabama75.4%

McNeese24.6%

Ohio State69.6%

Texas30.4%

Purdue71.5%

Utah Valley28.5%

Round of 32

Michigan81.5%

Miami18.5%

Wisconsin20.1%

St. John's79.9%

Georgia30.2%

Alabama69.8%

Ohio State19.8%

Purdue80.2%

Sweet 16

Michigan80.6%

St. John's19.4%

Alabama19.9%

Purdue80.1%

Elite 8

Michigan80.4%

Purdue19.6%

West

Round of 64

Duke84.4%

Austin Peay15.6%

UCLA72.4%

Stanford27.6%

Texas Tech79.0%

Indiana21.0%

Vanderbilt80.1%

Santa Clara19.9%

Kentucky69.7%

Iowa30.3%

Iowa State71.5%

High Point28.5%

Saint Mary's69.6%

Auburn30.4%

Houston82.4%

UC Irvine17.6%

Round of 32

Duke81.2%

UCLA18.8%

Texas Tech20.4%

Vanderbilt79.6%

Kentucky19.9%

Iowa State80.1%

Saint Mary's29.7%

Houston70.3%

Sweet 16

Duke80.6%

Vanderbilt19.4%

Iowa State30.3%

Houston69.7%

Elite 8

Duke80.2%

Houston19.8%

Midwest

Round of 64

Florida85.2%

Wright State14.8%

Louisville70.6%

Oklahoma29.4%

Kansas70.5%

Missouri29.5%

Nebraska70.6%

Akron29.4%

Tennessee80.1%

SMU19.9%

Gonzaga71.5%

Belmont28.5%

North Carolina70.1%

Texas A&M29.9%

UConn75.1%

Navy24.9%

Round of 32

Florida80.1%

Louisville19.9%

Kansas20.3%

Nebraska79.7%

Tennessee30.1%

Gonzaga69.9%

North Carolina30.0%

UConn70.0%

Sweet 16

Florida80.2%

Nebraska19.8%

Gonzaga32.2%

UConn67.8%

Elite 8

Florida80.0%

UConn20.0%

Final Four

Arizona77.8%

Michigan22.2%

Duke27.5%

Florida72.5%

Championship Game

Arizona73.7%

Florida26.3%

Champion

Arizona26.6%