NCAA Championship Odds 2026

NCAA Championship Odds

2025-26 Season Projections

Simulation Date: April 12, 2026

Favorite

Arizona

Odds

+275

Probability

26.6%

Projected Seed

61 teams

Rank	Team	Championship Probability	Implied Odds	Power
1 — —	(1) E Arizona 32-2	26.65%	+275	100.0
2 — —	(1) M Florida 26-7	10.18%	+882	76.2
3 — —	(1) S Michigan 31-3	9.37%	+967	98.3
4 — —	(2) E Michigan State 25-7	9.15%	+992	70.3
5 — —	(3) E Illinois 24-8	6.66%	+1401	70.3
6 — —	(1) W Duke 32-2	4.43%	+2157	99.4
7 — —	(4) E Virginia 29-5	3.90%	+2464	67.2
8 — —	(5) E Arkansas 26-8	3.40%	+2841	66.0
9 — —	(2) S Purdue 27-8	3.21%	+3015	72.7
10 — —	(2) M UConn 29-5	2.41%	+4049	73.1
11 — —	(6) E BYU 23-11	2.02%	+4850	58.2
12 — —	(3) S Alabama 23-9	1.78%	+5517	69.0
13 — —	(3) M Gonzaga 30-3	1.70%	+5782	68.7
14 — —	(4) S St. John's 28-6	1.43%	+6893	67.5
15 — —	(6) S Georgia 22-10	1.06%	+9333	59.1
16 — —	(3) W Iowa State 27-7	1.01%	+9800	69.6
17 — —	(4) M Nebraska 26-6	0.93%	+10652	67.5
18 — —	(6) M Tennessee 22-11	0.87%	+11394	64.0
19 — —	(7) E TCU 22-11	0.76%	+13057	58.0
20 — —	(4) W Vanderbilt 26-8	0.71%	+13984	67.2
21 — —	(2) W Houston 28-6	0.70%	+14185	72.2
22 — —	(8) S Miami 25-8	0.59%	+16849	57.0
23 — —	(8) E Clemson 24-10	0.57%	+17443	54.8
24 — —	(5) M Kansas 23-10	0.53%	+18767	64.8
25 — —	(13) E Utah State 28-6	0.51%	+19507	53.9
26 — —	(7) M North Carolina 24-8	0.48%	+20733	57.4
27 — —	(8) M Louisville 23-10	0.47%	+21176	57.3
28 — —	(5) S Wisconsin 24-10	0.43%	+23155	65.3
29 — —	(7) S Ohio State 21-12	0.35%	+28471	57.6
30 — —	(10) S Texas 18-14	0.34%	+29311	52.8
31 — —	(9) E Villanova 24-8	0.31%	+32158	54.7
32 — —	(14) E Yale 24-6	0.31%	+32158	37.3
33 — —	(11) E Ole Miss 15-20	0.25%	+39900	51.0
34 — —	(12) M Missouri 20-12	0.24%	+41566	49.4
35 — —	(9) M Oklahoma 19-15	0.18%	+55455	53.7
36 — —	(5) W Texas Tech 22-10	0.18%	+55455	65.5
37 — —	(10) M Texas A&M 21-11	0.17%	+58723	53.0
38 — —	(10) E UCF 21-11	0.17%	+58723	51.5
39 — —	(12) E San Diego State 22-11	0.16%	+62400	44.5
40 — —	(13) M Akron 29-5	0.16%	+62400	44.1
41 — —	(6) W Kentucky 21-13	0.15%	+66566	58.7
42 — —	(11) M SMU 20-13	0.13%	+76823	49.6
43 — —	(10) W Auburn 17-16	0.12%	+83233	52.5
44 — —	(15) S Utah Valley 25-8	0.11%	+90809	31.3
45 — —	(8) W UCLA 23-11	0.10%	+99900	56.1
46 — —	(14) W High Point 30-4	0.09%	+111011	40.7
47 — —	(14) M Belmont 26-6	0.09%	+111011	42.9
48 — —	(15) E UNC Wilmington 26-6	0.09%	+111011	34.2
49 — —	(16) M Wright State 23-11	0.06%	+166566	26.8
50 — —	(14) S McNeese 28-5	0.06%	+166566	41.2
51 — —	(11) W Iowa 21-12	0.04%	+249900	50.7
52 — —	(9) S NC State 20-13	0.04%	+249900	53.7
53 — —	(7) W Saint Mary's 27-5	0.04%	+249900	57.9
54 — —	(11) S Washington 16-17	0.04%	+249900	49.7
55 — —	(13) W Santa Clara 26-8	0.03%	+333233	47.1
56 — —	(12) S Northwestern 15-19	0.02%	+499900	48.8
57 — —	(15) M Navy 26-7	0.02%	+499900	26.8
58 — —	(9) W Stanford 20-12	0.01%	+999900	54.1
59 — —	(15) W UC Irvine 23-11	0.01%	+999900	33.2
60 — —	(16) E Troy 22-11	0.01%	+999900	22.6
61 — —	(13) S New Mexico 23-10	0.01%	+999900	44.5
62 — —	BUBBLE Indiana 18-14	Not in Tournament	--	48.8
63 — —	BUBBLE Cincinnati 18-15	Not in Tournament	--	48.8
64 — —	BUBBLE Seton Hall 21-12	Not in Tournament	--	48.7
65 — —	BUBBLE Florida State 18-15	Not in Tournament	--	48.5
66 — —	BUBBLE Baylor 16-16	Not in Tournament	--	48.4
67 — —	BUBBLE Arizona State 17-16	Not in Tournament	--	48.3
68 — —	BUBBLE USC 18-14	Not in Tournament	--	47.2
69 — —	BUBBLE Wake Forest 17-16	Not in Tournament	--	46.9
70 — —	BUBBLE LSU 15-17	Not in Tournament	--	45.9
71 — —	BUBBLE Oklahoma State 19-14	Not in Tournament	--	45.2
72 — —	BUBBLE California 21-11	Not in Tournament	--	45.0

Methodology: Championship probabilities are calculated by simulating the NCAA tournament 10,000 times using our XGBoost win/loss model (77% historical accuracy). Tournament seeds are projected based on current power rankings derived from 2026 season performance data. Probabilities reflect each team's likelihood of winning the national championship if the tournament started today.

Note: These projections will update weekly as the season progresses and more games are completed. Actual tournament seeding may differ based on Selection Committee decisions, conference tournament results, and automatic bids.

Total Contenders

Top 4 Combined

55.3%

Seeds in Top 10

Last updated: April 12, 2026 at 07:35 AM ET

How to read this bracket: This shows advancement probabilities for multiple teams in each round, not a single predicted bracket. Each matchup shows the most likely teams to compete at that stage, with their probability of reaching that round.

Both teams can advance: The percentages represent each team's chance of reaching that round based on 10,000 simulations. For example, if Michigan shows 76.7% for Round of 32 and Iowa shows 67.9%, both teams have a chance to advance from Round of 64.

Upsets ARE happening: In our simulations, lower seeds regularly upset favorites: • 8-seeds reach Sweet 16 ~28% of the time (expected: 18%) • 10-seeds reach Sweet 16 ~9% of the time (expected: <1%) • 16-seeds have upset 1-seeds 55 times out of 10,000 (0.5% chance - like UMBC!)

For a single predicted bracket with upsets, use the Cinderella Report or check round-by-round advancement probabilities.

East

Round of 64

1Arizona84.4%

16Troy15.6%

8Clemson69.7%

9Villanova30.3%

5Arkansas80.6%

12San Diego State19.4%

4Virginia70.0%

13Utah State30.0%

6BYU80.6%

11Ole Miss19.4%

3Illinois71.5%

14Yale28.5%

7TCU80.0%

10UCF20.1%

2Michigan State78.9%

15UNC Wilmington21.1%

Round of 32

Arizona81.0%

Clemson19.0%

Arkansas32.2%

Virginia67.8%

BYU24.8%

Illinois75.2%

TCU19.6%

Michigan State80.4%

Sweet 16

Arizona80.6%

Virginia19.4%

Illinois32.2%

Michigan State67.8%

Elite 8

Arizona80.1%

Michigan State19.9%

South

Round of 64

1Michigan84.8%

16Portland State15.2%

8Miami79.7%

9NC State20.3%

5Wisconsin80.2%

12Northwestern19.8%

4St. John's80.3%

13New Mexico19.7%

6Georgia80.2%

11Washington19.9%

3Alabama75.4%

14McNeese24.6%

7Ohio State69.6%

10Texas30.4%

2Purdue71.5%

15Utah Valley28.5%

Round of 32

Michigan81.5%

Miami18.5%

Wisconsin20.1%

St. John's79.9%

Georgia30.2%

Alabama69.8%

Ohio State19.8%

Purdue80.2%

Sweet 16

Michigan80.6%

St. John's19.4%

Alabama19.9%

Purdue80.1%

Elite 8

Michigan80.4%

Purdue19.6%

West

Round of 64

1Duke84.4%

16Austin Peay15.6%

8UCLA72.4%

9Stanford27.6%

5Texas Tech79.0%

12Indiana21.0%

4Vanderbilt80.1%

13Santa Clara19.9%

6Kentucky69.7%

11Iowa30.3%

3Iowa State71.5%

14High Point28.5%

7Saint Mary's69.6%

10Auburn30.4%

2Houston82.4%

15UC Irvine17.6%

Round of 32

Duke81.2%

UCLA18.8%

Texas Tech20.4%

Vanderbilt79.6%

Kentucky19.9%

Iowa State80.1%

Saint Mary's29.7%

Houston70.3%

Sweet 16

Duke80.6%

Vanderbilt19.4%

Iowa State30.3%

Houston69.7%

Elite 8

Duke80.2%

Houston19.8%

Midwest

Round of 64

1Florida85.2%

16Wright State14.8%

8Louisville70.6%

9Oklahoma29.4%

5Kansas70.5%

12Missouri29.5%

4Nebraska70.6%

13Akron29.4%

6Tennessee80.1%

11SMU19.9%

3Gonzaga71.5%

14Belmont28.5%

7North Carolina70.1%

10Texas A&M29.9%

2UConn75.1%

15Navy24.9%

Round of 32

Florida80.1%

Louisville19.9%

Kansas20.3%

Nebraska79.7%

Tennessee30.1%

Gonzaga69.9%

North Carolina30.0%

UConn70.0%

Sweet 16

Florida80.2%

Nebraska19.8%

Gonzaga32.2%

UConn67.8%

Elite 8

Florida80.0%

UConn20.0%

Final Four

Arizona77.8%

Michigan22.2%

Duke27.5%

Florida72.5%

Championship Game

Arizona73.7%

Florida26.3%

Champion

Arizona26.6%

The Lab Analytics|Basketball

East

South

West

Midwest

Final Four