Championship Odds / North Carolina
⚠Based on 2025-26 results — not yet adjusted for off-season roster turnover.
Championship Résumé · #28 Nationally —
North Carolina
ACC · 24–8 reg. season · projected 7 seed, Midwest
Title Odds
0%
#28 in the field
Net Rating
+0
+10.9 vs field
SRS
+0
venue-neutral
Off Rtg
0
+6.9 vs 107.1
Def Rtg
0
−4.0 vs 105.9
Proj. Seed
7
Midwest region
Championship Résumé six factors that travel in March
Efficiency MarginNet +12.1Strong
Strength of Schedule#28Strong
Quality Wins7–6 vs top 50Elite
Bad-Loss Avoidance0 bad lossesSpotless
Road / Neutral6–8 away/neutralWeak
Momentum6–4 last 10Rising
Quadrant Record NET-style
Quad 1
6–8
0.429
Quad 2
7–0
1.000
Quad 3
5–0
1.000
Quad 4
6–0
1.000
Signature Games
Best Wins
vs Duke#2
W 71–68
at Virginia#15
W 85–80
vs Kansas#20
W 87–74
at Kentucky#23
W 67–64
vs Ohio State#27
W 71–70
Damaging Losses
at California#62
L 78–84
at SMU#46
L 83–97
at NC State#37
L 58–82
at Stanford#34
L 90–95
Efficiency Profile vs championship-field average
Net Rating
+12.1
field +1.2
Offensive Rating
114.0
field 107.1
Defensive Rating
101.9
field 105.9 · lower better
SRS
+19.9
venue-neutral rating
Offensive Rating114.0 / field 107.1+6.9
Defensive Rating101.9 / field 105.9−4.0
Net Rating12.1 / field 1.2+10.9
SRS19.9 / field 0.0+19.9
field average · bar right = better, left = worse
Key Contributors click a header to sort
| Player | GP | PPG | RPG | APG | FG% | 3P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb WilsonF | 24 | 19.9 | 9.4 | 2.7 | 57.8% | 25.9% |
| Henri VeesaarF | 31 | 17.0 | 8.7 | 2.1 | 60.8% | 42.6% |
| Seth TrimbleG | 24 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 47.1% | 28.6% |
| Luka BogavacG | 33 | 9.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 40.2% | 34.9% |
| Jarin StevensonF | 33 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 47.0% | 29.5% |
0%
Title Probability
Résumé Radar factor scores
outer = eliteNorth Carolinacontender bar
Snapshot
National Rank#28
ConferenceACC
Record24–8
Win %72.7%
Net Rating+12.1
SRS+19.9
SoS Rank#28
Championship model · The Lab Analytics
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