Season Track Record · 2025-26 · Against the Spread
55.0% cover. Break-even is 52.4%.
Sized the way the card actually bets — quarter-Kelly on the edge — the ATS card returned +6.1% ROI. Flat 1u a bet it still cleared +5.0% (+139u) across 2,795 bets. Straight up, the model called 71.8% of all 4,963 games right.
+5.0% FLAT ROI71.8% STRAIGHT-UP2,795 REAL BETS GRADED
Against-the-spread ROI · 2025-26
+6.1% ROI
quarter-Kelly staking @−110 on 2,795 bets · 1537-1258, 55.0% cover
+5.0%
Flat-stakes ROI
55.0%
ATS cover
71.8%
Win/loss · SU
Confidence calibration
Win rate by stated confidence · straight-up
52.7%
66.1%
74.0%
87.7%
98.1%
Coin flip · 50%
50–601,293 games
60–701,208 games
70–801,059 games
80–90717 games
90–100686 games
| Stated confidence | Model said (avg) | Actually won | Diff | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60% | 54.6% | 52.7% | -2.0 | 1,293 |
| 60–70% | 64.8% | 66.1% | +1.2 | 1,208 |
| 70–80% | 74.7% | 74.0% | -0.7 | 1,059 |
| 80–90% | 84.5% | 87.7% | +3.2 | 717 |
| 90–100% | 94.9% | 98.1% | +3.2 | 686 |
When the model says 80%, it should win roughly 80% of the time — and it does. Every tier lands within a few points of its own claim, and the most confident picks (90%+) came in around 98%.