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Against the Spread Beat the closing line out of sample — 56.2% at edge ≥ 4 last season, breakeven 52.4%.
Picks for2026-03-11
Qualifying Picks39
Members-only39
Dog / Fav9 / 30
MarketSpread

How it works: each pick is an against-the-spread bet where the model’s projected margin disagrees with the closing spread by at least 4 points (the “edge”). Cover rate is the realized out-of-sample win rate for that edge size; stake is quarter-Kelly sized on it and shown in units — 1u = the slate’s largest suggested bet, every other pick scales down from there by conviction. Picks are frozen at the bet-time line and graded on CLV. Generated Jul 09, 2026 · 08:52 PM.