2025-26 SEASON
NCAA Tournament Upset Candidates - Updated April 12, 2026 at 07:35 AM
| Rank | Team | Seed | Region | Conference | Power Rating | Power Advantage | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Win | Cinderella Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1↑ +1 | Wright State23-11 | 16 | Midwest | Horizon | 26.80 | -27.2 | 15.0% | 3.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.06% | 54.60x |
| 2↓ -1 | Austin Peay22-9 | 16 | West | ASUN | 23.05 | -30.9 | 15.4% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | nan% | 52.90x |
| 3— — | Troy22-11 | 16 | East | Sun Belt | 22.61 | -31.4 | 15.6% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.01% | 40.22x |
| 4— — | Utah Valley25-8 | 15 | South | WAC | 31.34 | -24.7 | 27.7% | 7.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.11% | 27.20x |
| 5— — | Portland State20-11 | 16 | South | Big Sky | 25.54 | -28.5 | 16.1% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | nan% | 20.46x |
| 6↑ +2 | High Point30-4 | 14 | West | Big South | 40.67 | -17.3 | 29.1% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.09% | 18.72x |
| 7↓ -1 | Belmont26-6 | 14 | Midwest | MVC | 42.91 | -15.1 | 29.0% | 8.4% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.09% | 18.23x |
| 8↑ +2 | Navy26-7 | 15 | Midwest | Patriot | 26.80 | -29.2 | 24.6% | 5.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.02% | 17.94x |
| 9— — | Yale24-6 | 14 | East | Ivy | 37.32 | -20.7 | 28.7% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.31% | 17.20x |
| 10↓ -3 | UNC Wilmington26-6 | 15 | East | CAA | 34.22 | -21.8 | 21.0% | 5.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.09% | 15.69x |
| 11— — | Utah State28-6 | 13 | East | Mountain West | 53.93 | -6.1 | 29.4% | 8.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.51% | 8.50x |
| 12— — | McNeese28-5 | 14 | South | Southland | 41.22 | -16.8 | 24.1% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.06% | 7.79x |
| 13— — | UC Irvine23-11 | 15 | West | Big West | 33.23 | -22.8 | 17.3% | 3.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.01% | 6.31x |
| 14— — | Akron29-5 | 13 | Midwest | MAC | 44.10 | -15.9 | 29.3% | 7.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.16% | 5.74x |
| 15— — | Missouri20-12 | 12 | Midwest | SEC | 49.42 | -12.6 | 29.5% | 13.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.24% | 5.41x |
| 16↑ +1 | New Mexico23-10 | 13 | South | Mountain West | 44.49 | -15.5 | 19.4% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.01% | 4.10x |
| 17↓ -1 | Santa Clara26-8 | 13 | West | WCC | 47.09 | -12.9 | 20.0% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.03% | 3.88x |
| 18— — | Iowa21-12 | 11 | West | Big Ten | 50.66 | -13.3 | 30.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 0.9% | 0.04% | 2.97x |
| 19↑ +1 | SMU20-13 | 11 | Midwest | ACC | 49.59 | -14.4 | 20.6% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.13% | 2.48x |
| 20↓ -1 | Texas18-14 | 10 | South | SEC | 52.81 | -13.2 | 30.6% | 13.7% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.34% | 2.37x |
| Region | Matchup | Favorite Advances | Upset Probability | Upset Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | (7) Saint Mary's vs (10) Auburn | 68.8% | 31.2% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| South | (7) Ohio State vs (10) Texas | 69.4% | 30.6% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| West | (6) Kentucky vs (11) Iowa | 69.4% | 30.6% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| Midwest | (7) North Carolina vs (10) Texas A&M | 70.0% | 30.0% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| East | (8) Clemson vs (9) Villanova | 70.2% | 29.8% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (5) Kansas vs (12) Missouri | 70.5% | 29.5% | 👀 WATCH |
| East | (4) Virginia vs (13) Utah State | 70.6% | 29.4% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (8) Louisville vs (9) Oklahoma | 70.6% | 29.4% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (4) Nebraska vs (13) Akron | 70.7% | 29.3% | 👀 WATCH |
| West | (3) Iowa State vs (14) High Point | 70.9% | 29.1% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (3) Gonzaga vs (14) Belmont | 71.0% | 29.0% | 👀 WATCH |
| East | (3) Illinois vs (14) Yale | 71.3% | 28.7% | 👀 WATCH |
| West | (8) UCLA vs (9) Stanford | 72.0% | 28.0% | 👀 WATCH |
| South | (2) Purdue vs (15) Utah Valley | 72.3% | 27.7% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (2) UConn vs (15) Navy | 75.4% | 24.6% | 👀 WATCH |
| South | (3) Alabama vs (14) McNeese | 75.9% | 24.1% | 👀 WATCH |
