NC State
19-8 · SRS +0.4
@
Virginia#11
24-3 · SRS +0.6
Model pick · straight up
VirginiaNC State 25%Virginia 75%
Confidence
75%
Predicted score
79–78
Margin (home)
-1.3
Total (line 150.5)
157 · OVER
Moneylines
+215 / -260
ML value edge
+6%
⚠ SIGNAL CONFLICT: 3/4 metrics favor NC State, but model picks Virginia
Season ProfileNC State · Virginia
70%
Win %
89%
+0.4
SRS
+0.6
+4.3
Schedule (opp SRS)
+2.0
+16.1
Net Efficiency
+20.7
OffenseNC State · Virginia
84.9
Points / game
82.0
125.9
Offensive rating
120.7
56.4%
eFG%
55.5%
39.0%
3P%
36.3%
75.5%
FT%
69.5%
66.7
Pace
66.4
Defense & Ball ControlNC State · Virginia
73.8
Opp points / game
68.0
109.8
Defensive rating
100.1
51.4%
Opp eFG%
45.3%
12.7
Turnover ratio
15.9
27.1%
Off. rebound %
33.4%
34.9%
FT rate
35.4%
Recent FormNC State · Virginia
+3.9
Last-10 margin
+7.8
82.0
Last-10 PPG
77.5
60%
Last-5 win %
100%
1
Win streak
8
33%
Close-game win %
86%
7
Days rest
3
Head to Headlast 5 meetings
Jan 03, 2026Virginia @ NC State76–61Virginia
Dec 31, 2024NC State @ Virginia67–70Virginia
Mar 15, 2024NC State @ Virginia73–65NC State
Jan 24, 2024NC State @ Virginia53–59Virginia
Jan 06, 2024Virginia @ NC State60–76NC State
Team stats are the pre-game rolling numbers the model saw at each
team's most recent game — season-to-date, no future information. Straight-up prediction only;
against-the-spread picks live on the ATS card.