Southern Miss
15-14 · SRS -6.8
@
Arkansas State
18-11 · SRS +8.0
Model pick · straight up
Arkansas StateSouthern Miss 26%Arkansas State 74%
Confidence
74%
Predicted score
74–76
Margin (home)
+2.6
Total (line 158.5)
150 · UNDER
Moneylines
+340 / -460
⚠ SIGNAL CONFLICT: 3/4 metrics favor Southern Miss, but model picks Arkansas State
Season ProfileSouthern Miss · Arkansas State
52%
Win %
62%
-6.8
SRS
+8.0
-1.6
Schedule (opp SRS)
-1.2
-0.0
Net Efficiency
+7.5
OffenseSouthern Miss · Arkansas State
73.8
Points / game
83.0
109.7
Offensive rating
113.6
49.4%
eFG%
53.0%
29.0%
3P%
33.0%
73.6%
FT%
74.3%
66.6
Pace
72.2
Defense & Ball ControlSouthern Miss · Arkansas State
73.6
Opp points / game
77.6
109.7
Defensive rating
106.1
51.4%
Opp eFG%
50.6%
18.3
Turnover ratio
19.4
30.1%
Off. rebound %
34.5%
43.5%
FT rate
38.5%
Recent FormSouthern Miss · Arkansas State
-3.1
Last-10 margin
+9.8
70.8
Last-10 PPG
83.1
60%
Last-5 win %
80%
2
Win streak
2
43%
Close-game win %
45%
3
Days rest
3
Head to Headlast 5 meetings
Dec 20, 2025Arkansas State @ Southern Miss93–86Arkansas State
Feb 12, 2025Southern Miss @ Arkansas State67–101Arkansas State
Jan 29, 2025Arkansas State @ Southern Miss81–68Arkansas State
Jan 31, 2024Southern Miss @ Arkansas State71–78Arkansas State
Jan 17, 2024Arkansas State @ Southern Miss66–69Southern Miss
Team stats are the pre-game rolling numbers the model saw at each
team's most recent game — season-to-date, no future information. Straight-up prediction only;
against-the-spread picks live on the ATS card.