Tennessee#22
20-7 · SRS +14.7
@
Missouri
18-9 · SRS +10.9
Model pick · straight up
MissouriTennessee 45%Missouri 55%
Confidence
55%
Predicted score
77–74
Margin (home)
-3.0
Total (line 144.2)
152 · OVER
Moneylines
-165 / +140
ML value edge
+15%
⚠ SIGNAL CONFLICT: 4/4 metrics favor Tennessee, but model picks Missouri
Season ProfileTennessee · Missouri
74%
Win %
67%
+14.7
SRS
+10.9
+7.1
Schedule (opp SRS)
+5.2
+17.0
Net Efficiency
+7.3
OffenseTennessee · Missouri
80.9
Points / game
80.3
118.2
Offensive rating
117.8
52.6%
eFG%
55.8%
35.0%
3P%
36.4%
69.1%
FT%
68.0%
67.4
Pace
67.8
Defense & Ball ControlTennessee · Missouri
69.0
Opp points / game
75.3
101.2
Defensive rating
110.5
47.5%
Opp eFG%
50.6%
17.8
Turnover ratio
18.0
36.3%
Off. rebound %
32.0%
41.7%
FT rate
44.2%
Recent FormTennessee · Missouri
+7.4
Last-10 margin
-3.4
77.9
Last-10 PPG
77.7
80%
Last-5 win %
60%
4
Win streak
-1
50%
Close-game win %
78%
3
Days rest
3
Head to Headlast 5 meetings
Feb 05, 2025Missouri @ Tennessee81–85Tennessee
Feb 20, 2024Tennessee @ Missouri72–67Tennessee
Mar 10, 2023Tennessee @ Missouri71–79Missouri
Feb 11, 2023Missouri @ Tennessee86–85Missouri
Feb 22, 2022Tennessee @ Missouri80–61Tennessee
Team stats are the pre-game rolling numbers the model saw at each
team's most recent game — season-to-date, no future information. Straight-up prediction only;
against-the-spread picks live on the ATS card.