Daily win/loss predictions and value edges vs closing lines
Calibrated XGBoost | 2022-2026 (Transfer Portal Era)
LIVE
Today
DEC 02
Total Games
53
Model
XGBoost
Features
144
Training Set
25,500+
Season
2025-26

Model Information

  • XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
  • XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
  • Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
  • Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
  • Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
  • Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Jackson State (1-6) @ Kennesaw State (5-2) Kennesaw State (95.8%) 07:00 PM 14
Stetson (3-6) @ Grand Canyon (4-3) Grand Canyon (95.7%) 09:00 PM 4
Western Illinois (2-6) @ Drake (5-3) Drake (95.6%) 07:30 PM 4
Nicholls (0-6) @ Creighton (4-3) Creighton (95.6%) 09:00 PM 4
Fairleigh Dickinson (1-6) @ Providence (4-4) Providence (94.9%) 07:00 PM 5
Florida A&M (0-4) @ Jacksonville (3-4) Jacksonville (94.6%) 07:00 PM 5
Morehead State (3-5) @ Murray State (5-3) Murray State (93.8%) 08:00 PM 6
Wagner (1-5) @ Maryland (5-3) Maryland (92.7%) 08:00 PM 7
Sacramento State (4-5) @ Baylor (5-1) Baylor (92.3%) 08:00 PM 18
SUNY-Maritime (0-1) @ Yale (7-1) Yale (92.1%) 07:00 PM 18
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-5) @ Western Carolina (3-4) Western Carolina (91.4%) 11:00 AM 9
Eastern Michigan (5-3) @ Butler (6-1) Butler (90.9%) 07:00 PM 29
Valparaiso (5-2) @ Marquette (4-4) Marquette (90.4%) 08:00 PM 20
Campbell (3-4) @ Penn State (7-1) Penn State (90.0%) 06:00 PM 20
Brown (3-5) @ Rhode Island (6-2) Rhode Island (88.9%) 07:00 PM 21
Georgia State (1-7) @ Mercer (5-2) Mercer (87.5%) 07:00 PM 22
Houston Christian (4-3) @ North Texas (6-2) North Texas (87.1%) 08:00 PM 23
UNC Greensboro (1-7) @ UNC Asheville (3-4) UNC Asheville (87.0%) 07:00 PM 18
Sam Houston (5-2) @ Oklahoma State (7-0) Oklahoma State (86.5%) 08:00 PM 34
Utah (6-2) @ California (6-1) California (85.1%) 10:00 PM 35
Cornell (5-2) @ George Mason (8-0) George Mason (83.0%) 07:00 PM 37
George Washington (6-2) @ Army (3-6) George Washington (82.9%) 11:00 AM 27
Florida #15 (5-2) @ Duke #4 (8-0) Duke (80.8%) 07:30 PM 69
Grambling (3-4) @ Tulane (5-2) Tulane (79.9%) 07:30 PM 30
Winthrop (4-4) @ Long Island University (4-3) Winthrop (78.8%) 07:30 PM 21
Washington State (3-5) @ Bradley (4-4) Bradley (78.2%) 08:00 PM 22
East Tennessee State (6-1) @ Dayton (6-2) Dayton (77.2%) 07:00 PM 43
Lindenwood (3-4) @ Northern Illinois (3-4) Northern Illinois (76.4%) 08:00 PM 24
Maryland Eastern Shore (4-6) @ East Carolina (2-5) East Carolina (75.3%) 07:00 PM 25
Virginia Tech (6-2) @ South Carolina (5-2) South Carolina (74.2%) 07:00 PM 46
North Carolina A&T (3-2) @ Charlotte (3-5) Charlotte (71.8%) 07:00 PM 28
Oklahoma (5-2) @ Wake Forest (6-2) Wake Forest (71.1%) 07:00 PM 49
SIU Edwardsville (5-3) @ North Florida (2-5) SIU Edwardsville (71.0%) 07:00 PM 29
Charleston Southern (5-4) @ UT Martin (5-2) UT Martin (69.7%) 12:00 PM 40
Iowa (7-0) @ Michigan State #7 (7-0) Michigan State (68.9%) 07:00 PM 66
North Carolina #16 (6-1) @ Kentucky #18 (5-2) Kentucky (67.0%) 09:30 PM 83
Miami (6-2) @ Ole Miss (5-2) Ole Miss (66.0%) 09:00 PM 54
Georgia (7-1) @ Florida State (5-2) Florida State (65.8%) 09:00 PM 54
Stonehill (2-7) @ Bryant (2-6) Bryant (64.3%) 06:00 PM 36
Texas A&M (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (5-3) Pittsburgh (64.1%) DOG 07:00 PM 56
William & Mary (7-2) @ Duquesne (5-2) Duquesne (64.0%) 07:00 PM 56
Tennessee #13 (7-1) @ Syracuse (4-3) Tennessee (63.5%) 07:00 PM 62
UConn #5 (6-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-2) Kansas (61.9%) DOG 09:00 PM 88
Lehigh (3-6) @ Binghamton (2-6) Lehigh (58.0%) 06:00 PM 42
USC #24 (7-0) @ Oregon (4-3) USC (57.9%) 10:00 PM 67
Saint Louis (6-1) @ Loyola Marymount (7-2) Saint Louis (57.3%) 10:00 PM 63
New Mexico State (6-0) @ South Alabama (7-1) South Alabama (57.2%) DOG 07:00 PM 68
UC San Diego (7-0) @ Nevada (5-3) UC San Diego (55.5%) DOG 10:00 PM 64
UT Arlington (6-2) @ Arkansas State (5-3) UT Arlington (55.2%) DOG 08:00 PM 65
Abilene Christian (5-3) @ Pepperdine (3-5) Pepperdine (53.6%) 09:00 PM 46
Central Michigan (3-4) @ Loyola Chicago (1-7) Loyola Chicago (53.2%) 08:00 PM 47
Missouri (8-0) @ Notre Dame (5-3) Notre Dame (53.0%) 09:00 PM 67
Purdue #1 (7-0) @ Rutgers (5-3) Purdue (52.7%) 08:00 PM 87
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Texas A&M (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (5-3) Pittsburgh (64.1%) DOG 07:00 PM 56
Virginia Tech (6-2) @ South Carolina (5-2) South Carolina (74.2%) 07:00 PM 46
Georgia (7-1) @ Florida State (5-2) Florida State (65.8%) 09:00 PM 54
UC San Diego (7-0) @ Nevada (5-3) UC San Diego (55.5%) 10:00 PM 64
UT Arlington (6-2) @ Arkansas State (5-3) UT Arlington (55.2%) 08:00 PM 65
UConn #5 (6-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-2) Kansas (61.9%) DOG 09:00 PM 88
New Mexico State (6-0) @ South Alabama (7-1) South Alabama (57.2%) DOG 07:00 PM 68
Florida A&M (0-4) @ Jacksonville (3-4) Jacksonville (94.6%) 07:00 PM 5
Utah (6-2) @ California (6-1) California (85.1%) 10:00 PM 35
Jackson State (1-6) @ Kennesaw State (5-2) Kennesaw State (95.8%) 07:00 PM 14
Oklahoma (5-2) @ Wake Forest (6-2) Wake Forest (71.1%) 07:00 PM 49
Winthrop (4-4) @ Long Island University (4-3) Winthrop (78.8%) DOG 07:30 PM 21
Charleston Southern (5-4) @ UT Martin (5-2) UT Martin (69.7%) 12:00 PM 40
Georgia State (1-7) @ Mercer (5-2) Mercer (87.5%) 07:00 PM 22
Missouri (8-0) @ Notre Dame (5-3) Notre Dame (53.0%) 09:00 PM 67
Washington State (3-5) @ Bradley (4-4) Bradley (78.2%) 08:00 PM 22
Lindenwood (3-4) @ Northern Illinois (3-4) Northern Illinois (76.4%) 08:00 PM 24
Florida #15 (5-2) @ Duke #4 (8-0) Duke (80.8%) 07:30 PM 69
Abilene Christian (5-3) @ Pepperdine (3-5) Pepperdine (53.6%) 09:00 PM 46
USC #24 (7-0) @ Oregon (4-3) USC (57.9%) DOG 10:00 PM 67
Miami (6-2) @ Ole Miss (5-2) Ole Miss (66.0%) 09:00 PM 54
Campbell (3-4) @ Penn State (7-1) Penn State (90.0%) 06:00 PM 20
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Lindenwood (3-4) @ Northern Illinois (3-4) Northern Illinois (76.4%) 08:00 PM 24
Virginia Tech (6-2) @ South Carolina (5-2) South Carolina (74.2%) 07:00 PM 46
Charleston Southern (5-4) @ UT Martin (5-2) UT Martin (69.7%) 12:00 PM 40
Miami (6-2) @ Ole Miss (5-2) Ole Miss (66.0%) 09:00 PM 54
Georgia (7-1) @ Florida State (5-2) Florida State (65.8%) 09:00 PM 54
Texas A&M (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (5-3) Pittsburgh (64.1%) DOG 07:00 PM 56
UConn #5 (6-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-2) Kansas (61.9%) DOG 09:00 PM 88
Lehigh (3-6) @ Binghamton (2-6) Lehigh (58.0%) 06:00 PM 42
USC #24 (7-0) @ Oregon (4-3) USC (57.9%) 10:00 PM 67
New Mexico State (6-0) @ South Alabama (7-1) South Alabama (57.2%) DOG 07:00 PM 68
Abilene Christian (5-3) @ Pepperdine (3-5) Pepperdine (53.6%) 09:00 PM 46
Missouri (8-0) @ Notre Dame (5-3) Notre Dame (53.0%) 09:00 PM 67
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Georgia (7-1) @ Florida State (5-2) Florida State (65.8%) +21.1% 09:00 PM 54
Texas A&M (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (5-3) Pittsburgh (64.1%) DOG +23.2% 07:00 PM 56
UConn #5 (6-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-2) Kansas (61.9%) DOG +15.5% 09:00 PM 88
New Mexico State (6-0) @ South Alabama (7-1) South Alabama (57.2%) DOG +13.5% 07:00 PM 68
UC San Diego (7-0) @ Nevada (5-3) UC San Diego (55.5%) DOG +17.6% 10:00 PM 64
UT Arlington (6-2) @ Arkansas State (5-3) UT Arlington (55.2%) DOG +16.6% 08:00 PM 65
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Expected Value Time (ET)
Rutgers vs Purdue Rutgers DOG 47.3% +950 ⭐⭐⭐ +396.5% 08:00 PM
Central Michigan @ Loyola Chicago Central Michigan DOG 46.8% +230 ⭐⭐⭐ +54.5% 08:00 PM
Pittsburgh vs Texas A&M Pittsburgh DOG 64.1% +135 ⭐⭐⭐ +50.7% 07:00 PM
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Florida A&M (0-4) @ Jacksonville (3-4) Jacksonville (94.6%) 07:00 PM 5
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Texas A&M (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (5-3) Pittsburgh (64.1%) +23.2% 07:00 PM 56
Virginia Tech (6-2) @ South Carolina (5-2) South Carolina (74.2%) +22.0% 07:00 PM 46
Georgia (7-1) @ Florida State (5-2) Florida State (65.8%) +21.1% 09:00 PM 54
UC San Diego (7-0) @ Nevada (5-3) UC San Diego (55.5%) +17.6% 10:00 PM 64
UT Arlington (6-2) @ Arkansas State (5-3) UT Arlington (55.2%) +16.6% 08:00 PM 65
UConn #5 (6-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-2) Kansas (61.9%) +15.5% 09:00 PM 88
New Mexico State (6-0) @ South Alabama (7-1) South Alabama (57.2%) +13.5% 07:00 PM 68
Florida A&M (0-4) @ Jacksonville (3-4) Jacksonville (94.6%) +12.0% 07:00 PM 5
Utah (6-2) @ California (6-1) California (85.1%) +9.6% 10:00 PM 35
Jackson State (1-6) @ Kennesaw State (5-2) Kennesaw State (95.8%) +8.5% 07:00 PM 14
Oklahoma (5-2) @ Wake Forest (6-2) Wake Forest (71.1%) +8.3% 07:00 PM 49
Winthrop (4-4) @ Long Island University (4-3) Winthrop (78.8%) +7.1% 07:30 PM 21
Charleston Southern (5-4) @ UT Martin (5-2) UT Martin (69.7%) +6.9% 12:00 PM 40
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Texas A&M (6-2) @ Pittsburgh (5-3) Pittsburgh (64.1%) +23.2% 07:00 PM 56
Virginia Tech (6-2) @ South Carolina (5-2) South Carolina (74.2%) +22.0% 07:00 PM 46
Georgia (7-1) @ Florida State (5-2) Florida State (65.8%) +21.1% 09:00 PM 54
UC San Diego (7-0) @ Nevada (5-3) UC San Diego (55.5%) +17.6% 10:00 PM 64
UT Arlington (6-2) @ Arkansas State (5-3) UT Arlington (55.2%) +16.6% 08:00 PM 65
UConn #5 (6-1) @ Kansas #21 (6-2) Kansas (61.9%) +15.5% 09:00 PM 88
New Mexico State (6-0) @ South Alabama (7-1) South Alabama (57.2%) +13.5% 07:00 PM 68
Florida A&M (0-4) @ Jacksonville (3-4) Jacksonville (94.6%) +12.0% 07:00 PM 5

Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values show which features have the most impact on our model's predictions. The values below represent the mean absolute SHAP value across all 53 games today.

XGBoost Win/Loss Model

Feature importance for win/loss predictions. Higher values indicate stronger influence on the predicted outcome.

Away Defensive Rating
0.3069
Point Spread
0.3029
Away Offensive Rating
0.2849
Home Defensive Rating
0.2600
Srs Diff
0.2452
Home Offensive Rating
0.2278
Away Team Implied Probability
0.0953
Away Team Win %
0.0809
Home Team Implied Probability
0.0547
Home Team Win %
0.0454
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