Daily win/loss predictions and value edges vs closing lines
Calibrated XGBoost | 2022-2026 (Transfer Portal Era)
LIVE
Today
DEC 03
Total Games
74
Model
XGBoost
Features
144
Training Set
25,500+
Season
2025-26

Model Information

  • XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
  • XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
  • Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
  • Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
  • Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
  • Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Virginia-Lynchburg (0-6) @ App State (4-5) App State (97.1%) 06:30 PM 3
Bucknell (2-7) @ Akron (6-2) Akron (96.3%) 07:00 PM 14
Coppin State (2-8) @ West Virginia (6-2) West Virginia (96.2%) 07:00 PM 14
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (0-8) @ UIC (4-3) UIC (96.0%) 12:00 PM 4
Alcorn State (1-8) @ Iowa State #10 (7-0) Iowa State (95.8%) 08:00 PM 29
Louisiana (1-7) @ Lamar (4-2) Lamar (95.6%) 07:00 PM 4
Utah Tech (5-5) @ Santa Clara (7-1) Santa Clara (94.8%) 10:00 PM 15
North Alabama (4-4) @ San Francisco (5-3) San Francisco (94.6%) 10:00 PM 5
North Carolina Central (3-6) @ James Madison (5-4) James Madison (93.0%) 07:00 PM 7
Eastern Kentucky (1-6) @ Illinois State (6-2) Illinois State (92.4%) 08:00 PM 18
California Baptist (7-1) @ BYU #9 (6-1) BYU (92.0%) 09:00 PM 43
UMBC (5-2) @ Georgetown (5-2) Georgetown (91.9%) 08:00 PM 28
Penn State-Shenango (0-3) @ St. Francis (PA) (1-7) St. Francis (PA) (90.9%) 07:00 PM 9
Mississippi Valley State (1-7) @ UL Monroe (1-6) UL Monroe (90.4%) 07:30 PM 10
Gardner-Webb (0-9) @ Queens University (3-5) Queens University (90.0%) 07:00 PM 10
Cleveland State (3-6) @ Northern Kentucky (6-2) Northern Kentucky (88.6%) 07:00 PM 21
North Dakota (3-6) @ Idaho (4-3) Idaho (86.7%) 09:00 PM 13
Oral Roberts (3-6) @ Weber State (3-4) Weber State (83.8%) 09:00 PM 16
Southern Illinois (4-4) @ High Point (7-1) High Point (83.3%) 07:00 PM 27
NC State (5-2) @ Auburn #20 (6-2) Auburn (81.8%) 09:15 PM 53
Marshall (5-2) @ UNC Wilmington (7-1) UNC Wilmington (81.1%) 07:00 PM 39
Utah Valley (5-2) @ San Diego State (3-3) San Diego State (80.9%) 10:00 PM 29
Maine (0-9) @ Ohio (1-6) Ohio (80.3%) 07:00 PM 20
Pacific (6-2) @ Air Force (3-6) Pacific (80.1%) 09:00 PM 30
New Orleans (3-5) @ Memphis (2-4) Memphis (79.6%) 08:00 PM 20
Austin Peay (4-3) @ Kent State (7-1) Kent State (79.5%) 07:00 PM 30
Navy (4-5) @ Delaware State (2-7) Navy (79.2%) 07:00 PM 21
Tennessee Tech (3-5) @ Lipscomb (4-4) Lipscomb (79.1%) 12:00 PM 21
New Hampshire (2-6) @ Dartmouth (2-3) Dartmouth (77.3%) 07:00 PM 23
Ball State (3-5) @ Evansville (3-5) Evansville (76.8%) 08:00 PM 23
Northwestern (5-2) @ Wisconsin (5-2) Wisconsin (76.1%) 09:00 PM 44
St. Thomas-Minnesota (6-3) @ Montana State (3-5) Montana State (76.0%) 09:00 PM 24
Northeastern (3-4) @ Holy Cross (2-6) Northeastern (75.3%) 06:00 PM 25
LSU (7-0) @ Boston College (4-4) LSU (74.8%) 07:15 PM 35
UT Rio Grande Valley (2-4) @ Stephen F. Austin (5-2) Stephen F. Austin (74.0%) 07:00 PM 36
Drexel (4-4) @ American University (5-4) American University (73.5%) 07:00 PM 26
Clemson (7-1) @ Alabama #12 (5-2) Alabama (72.8%) 07:15 PM 62
Little Rock (2-5) @ Central Arkansas (3-5) Central Arkansas (72.4%) 07:30 PM 28
Coastal Carolina (5-3) @ South Carolina Upstate (4-5) South Carolina Upstate (71.9%) 07:00 PM 28
Northern Colorado (7-1) @ Omaha (3-6) Northern Colorado (71.9%) 08:00 PM 38
Vermont State - Johnson (0-1) @ Boston University (3-5) Boston University (70.9%) 06:00 PM 29
Presbyterian (4-6) @ Wofford (5-3) Wofford (70.6%) 07:00 PM 29
Central Connecticut (5-2) @ Seton Hall (7-1) Seton Hall (70.2%) 07:00 PM 50
Howard Payne (0-1) @ Tarleton State (5-4) Tarleton State (69.0%) 08:00 PM 31
SMU (8-0) @ Vanderbilt #17 (8-0) Vanderbilt (68.3%) 09:15 PM 67
Virginia (6-1) @ Texas (6-2) Texas (67.9%) 09:15 PM 52
Richmond (6-1) @ Belmont (8-0) Belmont (67.8%) 07:30 PM 52
Tennessee State (5-3) @ Alabama A&M (3-3) Tennessee State (67.7%) 08:00 PM 32
Southern Indiana (3-5) @ Western Michigan (3-5) Western Michigan (66.8%) 07:00 PM 33
Cornell (5-3) @ Towson (5-3) Towson (66.7%) 07:00 PM 53
Indiana #22 (7-0) @ Minnesota (4-4) Indiana (66.7%) 07:00 PM 58
Princeton (3-7) @ Monmouth (4-4) Monmouth (64.6%) 08:00 PM 35
Harvard (5-4) @ Massachusetts (4-3) Massachusetts (63.3%) 07:00 PM 37
Eastern Washington (1-6) @ Denver (2-5) Denver (62.6%) 09:00 PM 37
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington (5-2) UCLA (62.0%) 11:00 PM 58
Mississippi State (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-3) Georgia Tech (61.9%) DOG 09:15 PM 38
Loyola Maryland (4-5) @ Hampton (4-5) Hampton (61.3%) 07:00 PM 39
Midway University (0-2) @ Bellarmine (3-4) Bellarmine (60.9%) 07:00 PM 39
Idaho State (4-4) @ Kansas City (1-6) Idaho State (58.5%) 08:00 PM 42
Portland State (4-2) @ South Dakota (5-3) Portland State (57.9%) 08:00 PM 62
Sacred Heart (2-5) @ Mount St. Mary's (2-6) Sacred Heart (57.6%) 07:00 PM 42
Florida Gulf Coast (5-3) @ Florida International (3-3) Florida International (57.2%) 07:00 PM 43
IU Indianapolis (3-6) @ Detroit Mercy (2-6) Detroit Mercy (57.0%) 07:00 PM 43
Purdue Fort Wayne (4-5) @ Oakland (3-5) Oakland (56.6%) 07:00 PM 43
Southern Miss (4-3) @ Radford (3-6) Radford (55.2%) 07:00 PM 45
Louisiana Tech (4-2) @ Georgia Southern (4-5) Georgia Southern (53.7%) 07:00 PM 46
Furman (4-4) @ Elon (4-3) Elon (53.6%) DOG 07:00 PM 46
Vermont (5-4) @ Oregon State (3-5) Oregon State (53.4%) 09:30 PM 47
Louisville #6 (7-0) @ Arkansas #25 (5-2) Arkansas (53.3%) DOG 07:15 PM 97
South Dakota State (4-4) @ Northern Arizona (4-2) Northern Arizona (53.0%) DOG 08:00 PM 47
Wright State (4-4) @ Youngstown State (4-4) Wright State (51.8%) DOG 06:30 PM 48
Hofstra (5-3) @ Columbia (7-1) Columbia (51.4%) 07:00 PM 69
Texas State (6-4) @ Rice (3-6) Texas State (51.3%) DOG 09:00 PM 49
North Dakota State (5-3) @ Montana (4-4) North Dakota State (50.7%) DOG 09:00 PM 49
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
Little Rock (2-5) @ Central Arkansas (3-5) Central Arkansas (72.4%) 07:30 PM 28
Mississippi State (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-3) Georgia Tech (61.9%) DOG 09:15 PM 38
Northern Colorado (7-1) @ Omaha (3-6) Northern Colorado (71.9%) DOG 08:00 PM 38
Pacific (6-2) @ Air Force (3-6) Pacific (80.1%) DOG 09:00 PM 30
Virginia (6-1) @ Texas (6-2) Texas (67.9%) 09:15 PM 52
Wright State (4-4) @ Youngstown State (4-4) Wright State (51.8%) 06:30 PM 48
Louisville #6 (7-0) @ Arkansas #25 (5-2) Arkansas (53.3%) DOG 07:15 PM 97
Furman (4-4) @ Elon (4-3) Elon (53.6%) DOG 07:00 PM 46
NC State (5-2) @ Auburn #20 (6-2) Auburn (81.8%) 09:15 PM 53
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington (5-2) UCLA (62.0%) DOG 11:00 PM 58
Drexel (4-4) @ American University (5-4) American University (73.5%) 07:00 PM 26
South Dakota State (4-4) @ Northern Arizona (4-2) Northern Arizona (53.0%) DOG 08:00 PM 47
Texas State (6-4) @ Rice (3-6) Texas State (51.3%) 09:00 PM 49
Florida Gulf Coast (5-3) @ Florida International (3-3) Florida International (57.2%) 07:00 PM 43
North Dakota State (5-3) @ Montana (4-4) North Dakota State (50.7%) 09:00 PM 49
Oral Roberts (3-6) @ Weber State (3-4) Weber State (83.8%) 09:00 PM 16
Southern Illinois (4-4) @ High Point (7-1) High Point (83.3%) 07:00 PM 27
Portland State (4-2) @ South Dakota (5-3) Portland State (57.9%) DOG 08:00 PM 62
North Dakota (3-6) @ Idaho (4-3) Idaho (86.7%) 09:00 PM 13
Cleveland State (3-6) @ Northern Kentucky (6-2) Northern Kentucky (88.6%) 07:00 PM 21
Mississippi Valley State (1-7) @ UL Monroe (1-6) UL Monroe (90.4%) 07:30 PM 10
Eastern Washington (1-6) @ Denver (2-5) Denver (62.6%) 09:00 PM 37
Northeastern (3-4) @ Holy Cross (2-6) Northeastern (75.3%) DOG 06:00 PM 25
Utah Valley (5-2) @ San Diego State (3-3) San Diego State (80.9%) 10:00 PM 29
Ball State (3-5) @ Evansville (3-5) Evansville (76.8%) 08:00 PM 23
North Alabama (4-4) @ San Francisco (5-3) San Francisco (94.6%) 10:00 PM 5
North Carolina Central (3-6) @ James Madison (5-4) James Madison (93.0%) 07:00 PM 7
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
St. Thomas-Minnesota (6-3) @ Montana State (3-5) Montana State (76.0%) 09:00 PM 24
Little Rock (2-5) @ Central Arkansas (3-5) Central Arkansas (72.4%) 07:30 PM 28
Coastal Carolina (5-3) @ South Carolina Upstate (4-5) South Carolina Upstate (71.9%) 07:00 PM 28
Northern Colorado (7-1) @ Omaha (3-6) Northern Colorado (71.9%) 08:00 PM 38
Virginia (6-1) @ Texas (6-2) Texas (67.9%) 09:15 PM 52
Eastern Washington (1-6) @ Denver (2-5) Denver (62.6%) 09:00 PM 37
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington (5-2) UCLA (62.0%) 11:00 PM 58
Mississippi State (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-3) Georgia Tech (61.9%) DOG 09:15 PM 38
Portland State (4-2) @ South Dakota (5-3) Portland State (57.9%) 08:00 PM 62
Sacred Heart (2-5) @ Mount St. Mary's (2-6) Sacred Heart (57.6%) 07:00 PM 42
Florida Gulf Coast (5-3) @ Florida International (3-3) Florida International (57.2%) 07:00 PM 43
IU Indianapolis (3-6) @ Detroit Mercy (2-6) Detroit Mercy (57.0%) 07:00 PM 43
Southern Miss (4-3) @ Radford (3-6) Radford (55.2%) 07:00 PM 45
Louisiana Tech (4-2) @ Georgia Southern (4-5) Georgia Southern (53.7%) 07:00 PM 46
Furman (4-4) @ Elon (4-3) Elon (53.6%) DOG 07:00 PM 46
Vermont (5-4) @ Oregon State (3-5) Oregon State (53.4%) 09:30 PM 47
Louisville #6 (7-0) @ Arkansas #25 (5-2) Arkansas (53.3%) DOG 07:15 PM 97
South Dakota State (4-4) @ Northern Arizona (4-2) Northern Arizona (53.0%) DOG 08:00 PM 47
Wright State (4-4) @ Youngstown State (4-4) Wright State (51.8%) DOG 06:30 PM 48
Hofstra (5-3) @ Columbia (7-1) Columbia (51.4%) 07:00 PM 69
Texas State (6-4) @ Rice (3-6) Texas State (51.3%) DOG 09:00 PM 49
North Dakota State (5-3) @ Montana (4-4) North Dakota State (50.7%) DOG 09:00 PM 49
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Mississippi State (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-3) Georgia Tech (61.9%) DOG +19.0% 09:15 PM 38
Furman (4-4) @ Elon (4-3) Elon (53.6%) DOG +11.2% 07:00 PM 46
Louisville #6 (7-0) @ Arkansas #25 (5-2) Arkansas (53.3%) DOG +11.5% 07:15 PM 97
South Dakota State (4-4) @ Northern Arizona (4-2) Northern Arizona (53.0%) DOG +10.1% 08:00 PM 47
Wright State (4-4) @ Youngstown State (4-4) Wright State (51.8%) DOG +11.7% 06:30 PM 48
Texas State (6-4) @ Rice (3-6) Texas State (51.3%) DOG +9.3% 09:00 PM 49
North Dakota State (5-3) @ Montana (4-4) North Dakota State (50.7%) DOG +7.8% 09:00 PM 49
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Expected Value Time (ET)
Minnesota vs Indiana Minnesota DOG 33.3% +447 ⭐⭐⭐ +82.3% 07:00 PM
SMU @ Vanderbilt SMU DOG 31.7% +450 ⭐⭐⭐ +74.6% 09:15 PM
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland Purdue Fort Wayne DOG 43.4% +295 ⭐⭐⭐ +71.4% 07:00 PM
Game Prediction Time (ET) Hype Level
NC State (5-2) @ Auburn #20 (6-2) Auburn (81.8%) 09:15 PM 53
Pacific (6-2) @ Air Force (3-6) Pacific (80.1%) 09:00 PM 30
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Little Rock (2-5) @ Central Arkansas (3-5) Central Arkansas (72.4%) +20.3% 07:30 PM 28
Mississippi State (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-3) Georgia Tech (61.9%) +19.0% 09:15 PM 38
Northern Colorado (7-1) @ Omaha (3-6) Northern Colorado (71.9%) +17.6% 08:00 PM 38
Pacific (6-2) @ Air Force (3-6) Pacific (80.1%) +13.2% 09:00 PM 30
Virginia (6-1) @ Texas (6-2) Texas (67.9%) +11.7% 09:15 PM 52
Wright State (4-4) @ Youngstown State (4-4) Wright State (51.8%) +11.7% 06:30 PM 48
Louisville #6 (7-0) @ Arkansas #25 (5-2) Arkansas (53.3%) +11.5% 07:15 PM 97
Furman (4-4) @ Elon (4-3) Elon (53.6%) +11.2% 07:00 PM 46
NC State (5-2) @ Auburn #20 (6-2) Auburn (81.8%) +10.9% 09:15 PM 53
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington (5-2) UCLA (62.0%) +10.9% 11:00 PM 58
Drexel (4-4) @ American University (5-4) American University (73.5%) +10.4% 07:00 PM 26
South Dakota State (4-4) @ Northern Arizona (4-2) Northern Arizona (53.0%) +10.1% 08:00 PM 47
Texas State (6-4) @ Rice (3-6) Texas State (51.3%) +9.3% 09:00 PM 49
Florida Gulf Coast (5-3) @ Florida International (3-3) Florida International (57.2%) +8.3% 07:00 PM 43
North Dakota State (5-3) @ Montana (4-4) North Dakota State (50.7%) +7.8% 09:00 PM 49
Oral Roberts (3-6) @ Weber State (3-4) Weber State (83.8%) +6.8% 09:00 PM 16
Southern Illinois (4-4) @ High Point (7-1) High Point (83.3%) +6.8% 07:00 PM 27
Portland State (4-2) @ South Dakota (5-3) Portland State (57.9%) +6.8% 08:00 PM 62
North Dakota (3-6) @ Idaho (4-3) Idaho (86.7%) +6.7% 09:00 PM 13
Cleveland State (3-6) @ Northern Kentucky (6-2) Northern Kentucky (88.6%) +6.4% 07:00 PM 21
Mississippi Valley State (1-7) @ UL Monroe (1-6) UL Monroe (90.4%) +5.2% 07:30 PM 10
Game Prediction Edge Time (ET) Hype Level
Little Rock (2-5) @ Central Arkansas (3-5) Central Arkansas (72.4%) +20.3% 07:30 PM 28
Mississippi State (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-3) Georgia Tech (61.9%) +19.0% 09:15 PM 38
Northern Colorado (7-1) @ Omaha (3-6) Northern Colorado (71.9%) +17.6% 08:00 PM 38
Pacific (6-2) @ Air Force (3-6) Pacific (80.1%) +13.2% 09:00 PM 30
Virginia (6-1) @ Texas (6-2) Texas (67.9%) +11.7% 09:15 PM 52
Wright State (4-4) @ Youngstown State (4-4) Wright State (51.8%) +11.7% 06:30 PM 48
Louisville #6 (7-0) @ Arkansas #25 (5-2) Arkansas (53.3%) +11.5% 07:15 PM 97
Furman (4-4) @ Elon (4-3) Elon (53.6%) +11.2% 07:00 PM 46
NC State (5-2) @ Auburn #20 (6-2) Auburn (81.8%) +10.9% 09:15 PM 53
UCLA (5-2) @ Washington (5-2) UCLA (62.0%) +10.9% 11:00 PM 58
Drexel (4-4) @ American University (5-4) American University (73.5%) +10.4% 07:00 PM 26
South Dakota State (4-4) @ Northern Arizona (4-2) Northern Arizona (53.0%) +10.1% 08:00 PM 47

Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values show which features have the most impact on our model's predictions. The values below represent the mean absolute SHAP value across all 74 games today.

XGBoost Win/Loss Model

Feature importance for win/loss predictions. Higher values indicate stronger influence on the predicted outcome.

Away Defensive Rating
0.3157
Home Defensive Rating
0.2742
Srs Diff
0.2539
Point Spread
0.2421
Home Offensive Rating
0.2410
Away Offensive Rating
0.2371
Away Team Implied Probability
0.0859
Away Team Win %
0.0784
Home Team Implied Probability
0.0596
Home Team Win %
0.0493
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