Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Thursday, December 04, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

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Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
The Citadel (3-5) @ Davidson (6-1)	Davidson (93.9%)	07:00 PM	16
07:00 PM The Citadel @ Davidson 3-5 vs 6-1 The Citadel 6.1% Davidson 93.9% Model Pick Davidson 93.9% Pick Spread Davidson -21.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE The Citadel 60 vs Davidson 82 Total 142.7 Margin +22.1 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.6 Vegas O/U BET OVER 140.0 @58%
Long Beach State (2-6) @ UC Santa Barbara (6-2)	UC Santa Barbara (92.1%)	09:00 PM	18
09:00 PM +5.3% EDGE Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara 2-6 vs 6-2 Long Beach State 7.9% UC Santa Barbara 92.1% Model Pick UC Santa Barbara 92.1% Pick Spread UC Santa Barbara -12.5 Home ML -975 Away ML +625 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 92.1% VEGAS TRUE 86.8% VEGAS JUICED 90.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Long Beach State 59 vs UC Santa Barbara 78 Total 136.8 Margin +19.6 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.0 @71%
Rider (1-5) @ Merrimack (3-6)	Merrimack (87.3%)	07:00 PM	13
07:00 PM +10.6% EDGE Rider @ Merrimack 1-5 vs 3-6 Rider 12.7% Merrimack 87.3% Model Pick Merrimack 87.3% Pick Spread Merrimack -9.5 Home ML -415 Away ML +310 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.6% MODEL PROB 87.3% VEGAS TRUE 76.8% VEGAS JUICED 80.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rider 59 vs Merrimack 69 Total 127.2 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.8 @74%
UC Riverside (4-4) @ UC Irvine (5-4)	UC Irvine (85.6%)	10:00 PM	14
10:00 PM UC Riverside @ UC Irvine 4-4 vs 5-4 UC Riverside 14.4% UC Irvine 85.6% Model Pick UC Irvine 85.6% Pick Spread UC Irvine -12.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Riverside 56 vs UC Irvine 76 Total 132.3 Margin +20.5 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @71%
UC Davis (5-2) @ Hawai'i (6-2)	Hawai'i (83.1%)	11:59 PM	37
11:59 PM +3.4% EDGE UC Davis @ Hawai'i 5-2 vs 6-2 UC Davis 16.9% Hawai'i 83.1% Model Pick Hawai'i 83.1% Pick Spread Hawai'i -8.5 Home ML -510 Away ML +370 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.4% MODEL PROB 83.1% VEGAS TRUE 79.7% VEGAS JUICED 83.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Davis 58 vs Hawai'i 72 Total 129.2 Margin +14.0 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.5 @90%
Cal Poly (4-5) @ Cal State Fullerton (3-5)	Cal State Fullerton (69.5%)	10:00 PM	30
10:00 PM CLOSE Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 4-5 vs 3-5 Cal Poly 30.5% Cal State Fullerton 69.5% Model Pick Cal State Fullerton 69.5% Pick Spread Cal State Fullerton -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal Poly 70 vs Cal State Fullerton 80 Total 150.9 Margin +9.9 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 178.5 @98%
Cal State Bakersfield (4-4) @ Cal State Northridge (3-4)	Cal State Northridge (68.8%)	10:00 PM	31
10:00 PM Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge 4-4 vs 3-4 Cal State Bakersfield 31.2% Cal State Northridge 68.8% Model Pick Cal State Northridge 68.8% Pick Spread Cal State Northridge -4.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal State Bakersfield 63 vs Cal State Northridge 74 Total 137.2 Margin +11.0 Spread FAV COVERS @69% Diff +6.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.5 @92%
Robert Morris (6-3) @ Green Bay (4-5)	Robert Morris (61.6%)	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PM +9.5% EDGECLOSE Robert Morris @ Green Bay 6-3 vs 4-5 Robert Morris 61.6% Green Bay 38.4% Model Pick Robert Morris 61.6% Pick Spread Robert Morris +0.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 61.6% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 72 vs Green Bay 64 Total 135.8 Margin -8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @28% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @57%
Utah State (7-0) @ South Florida (4-4)	Utah State (53.2%)	07:00 PM	57
07:00 PM CLOSE Utah State @ South Florida 7-0 vs 4-4 Utah State 53.2% South Florida 46.8% Model Pick Utah State 53.2% Pick Spread Utah State -2.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.0% MODEL PROB 53.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Utah State 77 vs South Florida 67 Total 144.7 Margin -9.9 Spread FAV COVERS @27% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.5 @91%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Rider (1-5) @ Merrimack (3-6)	Merrimack (87.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	13
07:00 PM+10.6% EDGE Rider @ Merrimack 1-5 vs 3-6 Rider 12.7% Merrimack 87.3% Model Pick Merrimack 87.3% Pick Spread -9.5 Home ML -415 Away ML +310 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.6% MODEL PROB 87.3% VEGAS TRUE 76.8% VEGAS JUICED 80.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rider 59 vs Merrimack 69 Total 127.2 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.8 @74%
Robert Morris (6-3) @ Green Bay (4-5)	Robert Morris (61.6%)	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PM+9.5% EDGE Robert Morris @ Green Bay 6-3 vs 4-5 Robert Morris 61.6% Green Bay 38.4% Model Pick Robert Morris 61.6% Pick Spread +0.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 61.6% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 72 vs Green Bay 64 Total 135.8 Margin -8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @28% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @57%
Long Beach State (2-6) @ UC Santa Barbara (6-2)	UC Santa Barbara (92.1%) DOG	09:00 PM	18
09:00 PM+5.3% EDGE Long Beach State @ UC Santa Barbara 2-6 vs 6-2 Long Beach State 7.9% UC Santa Barbara 92.1% Model Pick UC Santa Barbara 92.1% Pick Spread -12.5 Home ML -975 Away ML +625 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.3% MODEL PROB 92.1% VEGAS TRUE 86.8% VEGAS JUICED 90.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Long Beach State 59 vs UC Santa Barbara 78 Total 136.8 Margin +19.6 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 144.0 @71%
UC Davis (5-2) @ Hawai'i (6-2)	Hawai'i (83.1%) DOG	11:59 PM	37
11:59 PM+3.4% EDGE UC Davis @ Hawai'i 5-2 vs 6-2 UC Davis 16.9% Hawai'i 83.1% Model Pick Hawai'i 83.1% Pick Spread -8.5 Home ML -510 Away ML +370 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.4% MODEL PROB 83.1% VEGAS TRUE 79.7% VEGAS JUICED 83.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UC Davis 58 vs Hawai'i 72 Total 129.2 Margin +14.0 Spread FAV COVERS @66% Diff +5.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 145.5 @90%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Cal Poly (4-5) @ Cal State Fullerton (3-5)	Cal State Fullerton (69.5%)	10:00 PM	30
10:00 PMCLOSE Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton 4-5 vs 3-5 Cal Poly 30.5% Cal State Fullerton 69.5% Model Pick Cal State Fullerton 69.5% Pick Spread Cal State Fullerton -1.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cal Poly 70 vs Cal State Fullerton 80 Total 150.9 Margin +9.9 Spread FAV COVERS @74% Diff +8.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 178.5 @98%
Robert Morris (6-3) @ Green Bay (4-5)	Robert Morris (61.6%)	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PMCLOSE Robert Morris @ Green Bay 6-3 vs 4-5 Robert Morris 61.6% Green Bay 38.4% Model Pick Robert Morris 61.6% Pick Spread Robert Morris +0.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.5% MODEL PROB 61.6% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Robert Morris 72 vs Green Bay 64 Total 135.8 Margin -8.0 Spread FAV COVERS @28% Diff +7.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 138.2 @57%
Utah State (7-0) @ South Florida (4-4)	Utah State (53.2%)	07:00 PM	57
07:00 PMCLOSE Utah State @ South Florida 7-0 vs 4-4 Utah State 53.2% South Florida 46.8% Model Pick Utah State 53.2% Pick Spread Utah State -2.0 Home ML +100 Away ML -120 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.0% MODEL PROB 53.2% VEGAS TRUE 52.2% VEGAS JUICED 54.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Utah State 77 vs South Florida 67 Total 144.7 Margin -9.9 Spread FAV COVERS @27% Diff +8.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.5 @91%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Robert Morris @ Green Bay	Robert Morris FAV	61.6%	-120	⭐⭐ +13.0%	07:00 PM
Merrimack vs Rider	Merrimack FAV	87.3%	-415	⭐ +8.4%	07:00 PM
UC Santa Barbara vs Long Beach State	UC Santa Barbara FAV	92.1%	-975	⭐ +1.6%	09:00 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Rider (1-5) @ Merrimack (3-6)	Merrimack (87.3%)	07:00 PM	13
07:00 PM75%+ CONF +10.6% EDGE Rider @ Merrimack 1-5 vs 3-6 Rider 12.7% Merrimack 87.3% Model Pick Merrimack 87.3% Pick Spread -9.5 Home ML -415 Away ML +310 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.6% MODEL PROB 87.3% VEGAS TRUE 76.8% VEGAS JUICED 80.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rider 59 vs Merrimack 69 Total 127.2 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.8 @74%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Rider (1-5) @ Merrimack (3-6)	Merrimack (87.3%)	+10.6%	07:00 PM	13
07:00 PM+10.6% EDGE Rider @ Merrimack 1-5 vs 3-6 Rider 12.7% Merrimack 87.3% Model Pick Merrimack 87.3% Pick Spread -9.5 Home ML -415 Away ML +310 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +10.6% MODEL PROB 87.3% VEGAS TRUE 76.8% VEGAS JUICED 80.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Rider 59 vs Merrimack 69 Total 127.2 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @52% Diff +0.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 135.8 @74%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model