Breaking Vegas - Daily Predictions | Friday, December 05, 2025

Model Information

XGBoost Win/Loss Model: 144 features, trained on ~25,500 games (2022-2026 transfer portal era, 1.5x recency weighting)
XGBoost Points Model: 143 features, trained on ~39,700 samples (2023-2026 current scoring era, 8.0x weighting on 2026 games)
Walk-Forward Validated Accuracy: 75.6% (77.8% excluding COVID 2021 season)
Points Model Performance: MAE 6.10, R² 0.671 (improved with aggressive current-year weighting)
Prediction Features: Uses 2026 season rolling stats (current team performance, updated daily)
Confidence Penalties: 15% neutral site reduction, 10% underdog reduction (ML strategies)

📅 All Games Today

Game	Prediction ⇅	Time (ET) ⇅	Hype Level ⇅
NJIT (3-6) @ High Point (7-2)	High Point (96.4%)	07:00 PM	14
07:00 PM NJIT @ High Point 3-6 vs 7-2 NJIT 3.6% High Point 96.4% Model Pick High Point 96.4% Pick Spread High Point -28.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE NJIT 53 vs High Point 82 Total 134.5 Margin +28.9 Spread FAV COVERS @51% Diff +0.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 156.5 @95%
Northwestern State (1-6) @ McNeese (6-2)	McNeese (93.0%)	07:30 PM	17
07:30 PM Northwestern State @ McNeese 1-6 vs 6-2 Northwestern State 7.0% McNeese 93.0% Model Pick McNeese 93.0% Pick Spread McNeese -18.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Northwestern State 64 vs McNeese 83 Total 146.5 Margin +19.5 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.0 Vegas O/U BET OVER 138.5 @73%
Niagara (2-5) @ Siena (7-2)	Siena (92.6%)	07:00 PM	17
07:00 PM +4.2% EDGE Niagara @ Siena 2-5 vs 7-2 Niagara 7.4% Siena 92.6% Model Pick Siena 92.6% Pick Spread Siena -13.0 Home ML -1300 Away ML +725 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.2% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 88.5% VEGAS JUICED 92.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Niagara 58 vs Siena 70 Total 128.0 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 129.5 @55%
Mount St. Mary's (2-7) @ Marist (4-2)	Marist (92.2%)	07:00 PM	8
07:00 PM Mount St. Mary's @ Marist 2-7 vs 4-2 Mount St. Mary's 7.8% Marist 92.2% Model Pick Marist 92.2% Pick Spread Marist -9.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mount St. Mary's 55 vs Marist 72 Total 127.3 Margin +17.5 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.5 @71%
East Texas A&M (4-3) @ UConn #5 (7-1)	UConn (92.0%)	07:30 PM	38
07:30 PM East Texas A&M @ UConn #5 4-3 vs 7-1 East Texas A&M 8.0% UConn 92.0% Model Pick UConn 92.0% Pick Spread UConn -38.0 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE East Texas A&M 53 vs UConn 82 Total 135.0 Margin +29.2 Spread DOG COVERS @25% Diff -8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 140.2 @66%
Samford (4-5) @ VCU (5-3)	VCU (90.8%)	07:00 PM	9
07:00 PM Samford @ VCU 4-5 vs 5-3 Samford 9.2% VCU 90.8% Model Pick VCU 90.8% Pick Spread VCU -19.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Samford 60 vs VCU 82 Total 142.2 Margin +21.4 Spread FAV COVERS @56% Diff +1.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 150.5 @74%
South Carolina State (0-8) @ Bethune-Cookman (2-6)	Bethune-Cookman (90.1%)	07:00 PM	10
07:00 PM +7.1% EDGE South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman 0-8 vs 2-6 South Carolina State 9.9% Bethune-Cookman 90.1% Model Pick Bethune-Cookman 90.1% Pick Spread Bethune-Cookman -12.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.1% MODEL PROB 90.1% VEGAS TRUE 83.0% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina State 61 vs Bethune-Cookman 80 Total 141.5 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @70%
Notre Dame (6-3) @ TCU (5-2)	TCU (78.1%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM +5.2% EDGE Notre Dame @ TCU 6-3 vs 5-2 Notre Dame 21.9% TCU 78.1% Model Pick TCU 78.1% Pick Spread TCU -7.0 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 78.1% VEGAS TRUE 72.9% VEGAS JUICED 75.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Notre Dame 58 vs TCU 74 Total 131.8 Margin +16.4 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @72%
South Alabama (8-1) @ East Tennessee State (6-2)	East Tennessee State (75.4%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM +9.9% EDGE South Alabama @ East Tennessee State 8-1 vs 6-2 South Alabama 24.6% East Tennessee State 75.4% Model Pick East Tennessee State 75.4% Pick Spread East Tennessee State -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +174 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 75.4% VEGAS TRUE 65.5% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Alabama 58 vs East Tennessee State 73 Total 131.2 Margin +14.4 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.2 @80%
Canisius (4-4) @ Saint Peter's (2-4)	Saint Peter's (75.2%)	07:00 PM	25
07:00 PM Canisius @ Saint Peter's 4-4 vs 2-4 Canisius 24.8% Saint Peter's 75.2% Model Pick Saint Peter's 75.2% Pick Spread Saint Peter's -9.0 Home ML -370 Away ML +285 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +0.0% MODEL PROB 75.2% VEGAS TRUE 75.2% VEGAS JUICED 78.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Canisius 59 vs Saint Peter's 69 Total 127.7 Margin +10.3 Spread FAV COVERS @53% Diff +1.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 130.5 @59%
Cleary University (0-1) @ Eastern Michigan (5-4)	Eastern Michigan (74.2%)	07:30 PM	26
07:30 PM Cleary University @ Eastern Michigan 0-1 vs 5-4 Cleary University 25.8% Eastern Michigan 74.2% Model Pick Eastern Michigan 74.2% Pick Spread N/A Home ML N/A Away ML N/A XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cleary University 53 vs Eastern Michigan 64 Total 117.3 Margin +11.5
UAB (6-3) @ Drake (6-3)	Drake (70.8%)	07:30 PM	49
07:30 PM +17.6% EDGECLOSE UAB @ Drake 6-3 vs 6-3 UAB 29.2% Drake 70.8% Model Pick Drake 70.8% Pick Spread Drake -2.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.6% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UAB 62 vs Drake 72 Total 133.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @84%
Quinnipiac (5-3) @ Iona (6-2)	Iona (70.5%)	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PM +12.6% EDGECLOSE Quinnipiac @ Iona 5-3 vs 6-2 Quinnipiac 29.5% Iona 70.5% Model Pick Iona 70.5% Pick Spread Iona -3.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +12.6% MODEL PROB 70.5% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 70 vs Iona 82 Total 152.1 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.8 @79%
San Diego (3-4) @ San José State (3-5)	San José State (70.2%)	10:00 PM	30
10:00 PM San Diego @ San José State 3-4 vs 3-5 San Diego 29.8% San José State 70.2% Model Pick San José State 70.2% Pick Spread San José State -7.5 Home ML -330 Away ML +265 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -3.5% MODEL PROB 70.2% VEGAS TRUE 73.7% VEGAS JUICED 76.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego 59 vs San José State 73 Total 131.6 Margin +13.6 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @80%
Bryant (3-6) @ Brown (3-6)	Brown (69.2%)	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM +3.3% EDGE Bryant @ Brown 3-6 vs 3-6 Bryant 30.8% Brown 69.2% Model Pick Brown 69.2% Pick Spread Brown -6.5 Home ML -210 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.3% MODEL PROB 69.2% VEGAS TRUE 65.9% VEGAS JUICED 67.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bryant 60 vs Brown 68 Total 128.3 Margin +8.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 131.0 @58%
Cincinnati (6-2) @ Xavier (6-3)	Xavier (68.7%)	07:30 PM	51
07:30 PM +15.5% EDGECLOSE Cincinnati @ Xavier 6-2 vs 6-3 Cincinnati 31.3% Xavier 68.7% Model Pick Xavier 68.7% Pick Spread Xavier -1.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +15.5% MODEL PROB 68.7% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 61 vs Xavier 70 Total 131.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @90%
Fairfield (5-3) @ Manhattan (3-5)	Manhattan (62.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PM +13.4% EDGECLOSEUNDERDOG Fairfield @ Manhattan 5-3 vs 3-5 Fairfield 37.7% Manhattan 62.3% Model Pick Manhattan 62.3% Pick Spread Manhattan +1.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.4% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Manhattan 78 Total 148.0 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.8 @72%
Mercyhurst (3-5) @ Lafayette (2-7)	Lafayette (52.3%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PM CLOSE Mercyhurst @ Lafayette 3-5 vs 2-7 Mercyhurst 47.7% Lafayette 52.3% Model Pick Lafayette 52.3% Pick Spread Lafayette -1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 52.3% VEGAS TRUE 51.1% VEGAS JUICED 53.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mercyhurst 57 vs Lafayette 67 Total 124.5 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 132.5 @73%
Gonzaga #11 (7-1) @ Kentucky #18 (5-3)	Gonzaga (50.1%)	07:00 PM	100
07:00 PM Gonzaga #11 @ Kentucky #18 7-1 vs 5-3 Gonzaga 50.1% Kentucky 49.9% Model Pick Gonzaga 50.1% Pick Spread Gonzaga -4.5 Home ML +170 Away ML -200 EDGE (VIG ADJ) -14.2% MODEL PROB 50.1% VEGAS TRUE 64.3% VEGAS JUICED 66.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Gonzaga 81 vs Kentucky 68 Total 149.1 Margin -12.5 Spread FAV COVERS @27% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 160.5 @81%

RECOMMENDED PICKS CRITERIA

Edge ≥ 4.0 pts • Spread ≤ 12 pts • Confidence ≥ 65%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
Notre Dame (6-3) @ TCU (5-2)	TCU (78.1%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM+9.4 PTS EDGE Notre Dame @ TCU 6-3 vs 5-2 Notre Dame 21.9% TCU 78.1% Model Pick TCU (78.1%) Pick Spread TCU -7.0 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 SPREAD EDGE +9.4 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +16.4 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Notre Dame 58 vs TCU 74 Total 131.8 Margin +16.4 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @72%
South Alabama (8-1) @ East Tennessee State (6-2)	East Tennessee State (75.4%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM+8.9 PTS EDGE South Alabama @ East Tennessee State 8-1 vs 6-2 South Alabama 24.6% East Tennessee State 75.4% Model Pick East Tennessee State (75.4%) Pick Spread East Tennessee State -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +174 SPREAD EDGE +8.9 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +14.4 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Alabama 58 vs East Tennessee State 73 Total 131.2 Margin +14.4 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.2 @80%
Mount St. Mary's (2-7) @ Marist (4-2)	Marist (92.2%)	07:00 PM	8
07:00 PM+8.0 PTS EDGE Mount St. Mary's @ Marist 2-7 vs 4-2 Mount St. Mary's 7.8% Marist 92.2% Model Pick Marist (92.2%) Pick Spread Marist -9.5 Home ML N/A Away ML N/A SPREAD EDGE +8.0 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +17.5 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mount St. Mary's 55 vs Marist 72 Total 127.3 Margin +17.5 Spread FAV COVERS @73% Diff +8.0 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 134.5 @71%
Quinnipiac (5-3) @ Iona (6-2)	Iona (70.5%)	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PM+7.6 PTS EDGE Quinnipiac @ Iona 5-3 vs 6-2 Quinnipiac 29.5% Iona 70.5% Model Pick Iona (70.5%) Pick Spread Iona -3.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 SPREAD EDGE +7.6 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +11.1 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 70 vs Iona 82 Total 152.1 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.8 @79%
UAB (6-3) @ Drake (6-3)	Drake (70.8%)	07:30 PM	49
07:30 PM+7.5 PTS EDGE UAB @ Drake 6-3 vs 6-3 UAB 29.2% Drake 70.8% Model Pick Drake (70.8%) Pick Spread Drake -2.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 SPREAD EDGE +7.5 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +10.0 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UAB 62 vs Drake 72 Total 133.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @84%
South Carolina State (0-8) @ Bethune-Cookman (2-6)	Bethune-Cookman (90.1%)	07:00 PM	10
07:00 PM+7.4 PTS EDGE South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman 0-8 vs 2-6 South Carolina State 9.9% Bethune-Cookman 90.1% Model Pick Bethune-Cookman (90.1%) Pick Spread Bethune-Cookman -12.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +450 SPREAD EDGE +7.4 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +19.1 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina State 61 vs Bethune-Cookman 80 Total 141.5 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @70%
San Diego (3-4) @ San José State (3-5)	San José State (70.2%)	10:00 PM	30
10:00 PM+6.1 PTS EDGE San Diego @ San José State 3-4 vs 3-5 San Diego 29.8% San José State 70.2% Model Pick San José State (70.2%) Pick Spread San José State -7.5 Home ML -330 Away ML +265 SPREAD EDGE +6.1 pts PREDICTED MARGIN +13.6 COVERAGE COVER XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE San Diego 59 vs San José State 73 Total 131.6 Margin +13.6 Spread FAV COVERS @68% Diff +6.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.5 @80%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UAB (6-3) @ Drake (6-3)	Drake (70.8%)	07:30 PM	49
07:30 PM+17.6% EDGE UAB @ Drake 6-3 vs 6-3 UAB 29.2% Drake 70.8% Model Pick Drake 70.8% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.6% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UAB 62 vs Drake 72 Total 133.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @84%
Cincinnati (6-2) @ Xavier (6-3)	Xavier (68.7%)	07:30 PM	51
07:30 PM+15.5% EDGE Cincinnati @ Xavier 6-2 vs 6-3 Cincinnati 31.3% Xavier 68.7% Model Pick Xavier 68.7% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +15.5% MODEL PROB 68.7% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 61 vs Xavier 70 Total 131.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @90%
Fairfield (5-3) @ Manhattan (3-5)	Manhattan (62.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PM+13.4% EDGE Fairfield @ Manhattan 5-3 vs 3-5 Fairfield 37.7% Manhattan 62.3% Model Pick Manhattan 62.3% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.4% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Manhattan 78 Total 148.0 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.8 @72%
Quinnipiac (5-3) @ Iona (6-2)	Iona (70.5%)	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PM+12.6% EDGE Quinnipiac @ Iona 5-3 vs 6-2 Quinnipiac 29.5% Iona 70.5% Model Pick Iona 70.5% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +12.6% MODEL PROB 70.5% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 70 vs Iona 82 Total 152.1 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.8 @79%
South Alabama (8-1) @ East Tennessee State (6-2)	East Tennessee State (75.4%)	07:00 PM	45
07:00 PM+9.9% EDGE South Alabama @ East Tennessee State 8-1 vs 6-2 South Alabama 24.6% East Tennessee State 75.4% Model Pick East Tennessee State 75.4% Pick Spread -5.5 Home ML -225 Away ML +174 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +9.9% MODEL PROB 75.4% VEGAS TRUE 65.5% VEGAS JUICED 69.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Alabama 58 vs East Tennessee State 73 Total 131.2 Margin +14.4 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.9 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 142.2 @80%
South Carolina State (0-8) @ Bethune-Cookman (2-6)	Bethune-Cookman (90.1%)	07:00 PM	10
07:00 PM+7.1% EDGE South Carolina State @ Bethune-Cookman 0-8 vs 2-6 South Carolina State 9.9% Bethune-Cookman 90.1% Model Pick Bethune-Cookman 90.1% Pick Spread -12.0 Home ML -800 Away ML +450 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +7.1% MODEL PROB 90.1% VEGAS TRUE 83.0% VEGAS JUICED 88.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE South Carolina State 61 vs Bethune-Cookman 80 Total 141.5 Margin +19.1 Spread FAV COVERS @71% Diff +7.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.5 @70%
Notre Dame (6-3) @ TCU (5-2)	TCU (78.1%)	08:00 PM	42
08:00 PM+5.2% EDGE Notre Dame @ TCU 6-3 vs 5-2 Notre Dame 21.9% TCU 78.1% Model Pick TCU 78.1% Pick Spread -7.0 Home ML -310 Away ML +255 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +5.2% MODEL PROB 78.1% VEGAS TRUE 72.9% VEGAS JUICED 75.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Notre Dame 58 vs TCU 74 Total 131.8 Margin +16.4 Spread FAV COVERS @77% Diff +9.4 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 139.5 @72%
Niagara (2-5) @ Siena (7-2)	Siena (92.6%)	07:00 PM	17
07:00 PM+4.2% EDGE Niagara @ Siena 2-5 vs 7-2 Niagara 7.4% Siena 92.6% Model Pick Siena 92.6% Pick Spread -13.0 Home ML -1300 Away ML +725 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +4.2% MODEL PROB 92.6% VEGAS TRUE 88.5% VEGAS JUICED 92.9% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Niagara 58 vs Siena 70 Total 128.0 Margin +12.8 Spread FAV COVERS @50% Diff +0.1 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 129.5 @55%
Bryant (3-6) @ Brown (3-6)	Brown (69.2%)	07:00 PM	31
07:00 PM+3.3% EDGE Bryant @ Brown 3-6 vs 3-6 Bryant 30.8% Brown 69.2% Model Pick Brown 69.2% Pick Spread -6.5 Home ML -210 Away ML +185 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +3.3% MODEL PROB 69.2% VEGAS TRUE 65.9% VEGAS JUICED 67.7% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Bryant 60 vs Brown 68 Total 128.3 Margin +8.7 Spread FAV COVERS @57% Diff +2.2 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 131.0 @58%

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UAB (6-3) @ Drake (6-3)	Drake (70.8%)	07:30 PM	49
07:30 PMCLOSE UAB @ Drake 6-3 vs 6-3 UAB 29.2% Drake 70.8% Model Pick Drake 70.8% Pick Spread Drake -2.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.6% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UAB 62 vs Drake 72 Total 133.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @84%
Quinnipiac (5-3) @ Iona (6-2)	Iona (70.5%)	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PMCLOSE Quinnipiac @ Iona 5-3 vs 6-2 Quinnipiac 29.5% Iona 70.5% Model Pick Iona 70.5% Pick Spread Iona -3.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +12.6% MODEL PROB 70.5% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 70 vs Iona 82 Total 152.1 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.8 @79%
Cincinnati (6-2) @ Xavier (6-3)	Xavier (68.7%)	07:30 PM	51
07:30 PMCLOSE Cincinnati @ Xavier 6-2 vs 6-3 Cincinnati 31.3% Xavier 68.7% Model Pick Xavier 68.7% Pick Spread Xavier -1.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +15.5% MODEL PROB 68.7% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 61 vs Xavier 70 Total 131.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @90%
Fairfield (5-3) @ Manhattan (3-5)	Manhattan (62.3%) DOG	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PMCLOSE Fairfield @ Manhattan 5-3 vs 3-5 Fairfield 37.7% Manhattan 62.3% Model Pick Manhattan 62.3% Pick Spread Manhattan +1.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.4% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Manhattan 78 Total 148.0 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.8 @72%
Mercyhurst (3-5) @ Lafayette (2-7)	Lafayette (52.3%)	07:00 PM	48
07:00 PMCLOSE Mercyhurst @ Lafayette 3-5 vs 2-7 Mercyhurst 47.7% Lafayette 52.3% Model Pick Lafayette 52.3% Pick Spread Lafayette -1.0 Home ML -115 Away ML -105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +1.2% MODEL PROB 52.3% VEGAS TRUE 51.1% VEGAS JUICED 53.5% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Mercyhurst 57 vs Lafayette 67 Total 124.5 Margin +9.7 Spread FAV COVERS @75% Diff +8.7 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 132.5 @73%

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Pick	Confidence	Moneyline	Expected Value	Time (ET)
Kentucky vs Gonzaga	Kentucky DOG	49.9%	+170	⭐⭐⭐ +34.6%	07:00 PM
Drake vs UAB	Drake FAV	70.8%	-125	⭐⭐⭐ +27.5%	07:30 PM
Xavier vs Cincinnati	Xavier FAV	68.7%	-125	⭐⭐⭐ +23.7%	07:30 PM

Game	Prediction	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level

Game	Prediction	Edge	Time (ET)	Hype Level
UAB (6-3) @ Drake (6-3)	Drake (70.8%)	+17.6%	07:30 PM	49
07:30 PM+17.6% EDGE UAB @ Drake 6-3 vs 6-3 UAB 29.2% Drake 70.8% Model Pick Drake 70.8% Pick Spread -2.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +17.6% MODEL PROB 70.8% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE UAB 62 vs Drake 72 Total 133.6 Margin +10.0 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.5 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 146.5 @84%
Cincinnati (6-2) @ Xavier (6-3)	Xavier (68.7%)	+15.5%	07:30 PM	51
07:30 PM+15.5% EDGE Cincinnati @ Xavier 6-2 vs 6-3 Cincinnati 31.3% Xavier 68.7% Model Pick Xavier 68.7% Pick Spread -1.5 Home ML -125 Away ML +105 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +15.5% MODEL PROB 68.7% VEGAS TRUE 53.2% VEGAS JUICED 55.6% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Cincinnati 61 vs Xavier 70 Total 131.5 Margin +9.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 148.2 @90%
Fairfield (5-3) @ Manhattan (3-5)	Manhattan (62.3%)	+13.4%	07:00 PM	38
07:00 PM+13.4% EDGE Fairfield @ Manhattan 5-3 vs 3-5 Fairfield 37.7% Manhattan 62.3% Model Pick Manhattan 62.3% Pick Spread +1.0 Home ML -105 Away ML -115 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +13.4% MODEL PROB 62.3% VEGAS TRUE 48.9% VEGAS JUICED 51.2% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Fairfield 70 vs Manhattan 78 Total 148.0 Margin +7.6 Spread DOG COVERS @75% Diff +8.8 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 155.8 @72%
Quinnipiac (5-3) @ Iona (6-2)	Iona (70.5%)	+12.6%	07:00 PM	50
07:00 PM+12.6% EDGE Quinnipiac @ Iona 5-3 vs 6-2 Quinnipiac 29.5% Iona 70.5% Model Pick Iona 70.5% Pick Spread -3.5 Home ML -150 Away ML +130 EDGE (VIG ADJ) +12.6% MODEL PROB 70.5% VEGAS TRUE 58.0% VEGAS JUICED 60.0% XGB XGB PREDICTED SCORE Quinnipiac 70 vs Iona 82 Total 152.1 Margin +11.1 Spread FAV COVERS @72% Diff +7.6 Vegas O/U BET UNDER 162.8 @79%

Model Information

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Model Explainability (SHAP Analysis)

XGBoost Win/Loss Model